Sunrise 4:56 AM   Sunset 10:55 PM Moonrise 5:28 PM   Moonset 3:15 AM

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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 192126 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 126 PM AKDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected to develop along the thermal trough today. Increased moisture and upper level energy moving across the eastern Alaska Range and the southeastern Interior tonight into Monday will bring the potential for heavy showers; at higher elevations accumulating snow is possible. A weather front moves to the West Coast and Western Interior tonight into Tuesday, bringing showers and increased southeasterly winds. The front moves into the central Interior by late Tuesday. Flood Warning remains in place for the Yukon River at Pilot Station.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 534 dam low is over the northern Gulf of Alaska, a 542 dam low is southeast of Inuvik, a 534 dam low is over the Gulf of Anadyr, and a 527 dam low is between the southern Kamchatka Peninsula and Shemya. The low over the northern Gulf of Alaska slides east to be near Yakutat by Monday morning and east into northern British Columbia through Tuesday. As this low moves east, the low near Inuvik gets pushed northward to Banks Island by Tuesday. The low near the Gulf of Anadyr tracks southwest through Monday, while the low east of the Kamchatka Peninsula tracks east, with the lows merging over the Western Bering northwest of the Pribilofs Monday night. This new low lifts northeast towards the Y-K Delta through Tuesday. Between the low in the Bering and the low in British Columbia, weak ridging develops across central and eastern Alaska.

At the surface, a 1009 mb low near Noatak moves northwest to be 25 NM northwest of Kivalina by Monday morning, weakening to 1013 mb Monday afternoon as it moves to be 75 NM west of Point Hope, dissipating Monday night. A 1009 mb low is east of Northway this afternoon with a thermal trough extending northwest across the Middle Tanana Valley to the Lower Koyukuk Valley. The low east of Northway moves north to be between Northway and Eagle by Monday morning, weakening through the day. A 1012 mb low moves north off of the Northwest Territory coast Monday afternoon and over Banks Island late Tuesday morning. High pressure remains over the Arctic water with a 1025 high developing and becoming centered 400 NM north of Utqiagvik by Tuesday afternoon. A 993 mb low in the far western Bering Sea this afternoon tracks northeast to be 350 NM northwest of the Pribilofs by Monday morning, 250 NM northwest of the Pribilofs by Monday afternoon, and a 150 NM east of the Pribilofs by Tuesday afternoon. As this low tracks east northeast it will push a front towards the West Coast Monday afternoon, moving onshore the Y-K Delta and St Lawrence Island during the evening and overnight hours and pushing northeast across the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior Tuesday.

Models...
The 19/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through Monday.
There are some minor differences in the timing of weak impulse moving through the trough, but the impacts of the differences are very minimal. Continued the trend of leaning towards the NAM and hi-res models for winds and a general blend for QPF and pops.
Overall made very few edits to the inherited forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Fairly quiet across the North Slope and Brooks Range over the next several days. High pressure over the Arctic will maintain areas of stratus and periods of fog, as well east northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph range along the coast. Southerly winds develops Tuesday in the eastern Brooks Range, resulting in warming temperatures in the eastern Brooks Range and central and western Arctic Plains.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Quiet through Monday afternoon, with only a few spotty showers expected. A weather front pushes over the Y-K Delta and St Lawrence Island late Monday and then moves northeast across the Seward Peninsula and Western Interior through Tuesday. East to southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected with the front, with the strongest winds along the coast. Precip chances increase with the approach and passage of the front. Most precip will fall as rain with some snow over the Bering coastal regions.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms (mainly over the Fortymile Country) expected across the Interior today along the thermal trough. Upper level low moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern British Columbia tonight into Monday pushes moisture across the Eastern Alaska Range and the southeast Interior, bringing increased chances for heavy showers, especially over the eastern Alaska Range. Rainfall amounts of half an inch to as much as an inch are possible in the eastern Alaska Range tonight through Monday night. From Delta Junction to Dot Lake up to half an inch of rain is possible. A mix of rain and snow is possible tonight into early Monday morning in locations such as Tok and Robertson River. Accumulating snow is possible in elevations above 2500 to 3000 feet, especially in upslope areas of the Alaska Range where 4 to 6 inches are possible. A front moving Tuesday will bring some showers to the Interior as well as increasing southerly gap winds in the Alaska Range. A Wind Advisory may be needed for Isabel Pass Tuesday night into Wednesday, as wind gusts may approach 50 mph.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble means continue to indicate a series of upper level lows in the Bering that squash the eastern Pacific Ridge. This will likely maintain continued chances for showers across the Interior and West coast through the week. Temperatures cool slightly for the latter half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Scattered showers are expected into early next week across the Interior. Thunderstorm potential continues through today along the thermal trough, with the best chances occurring over the Fortymile Country. Wetting rains develop tonight into Monday over the southeastern Interior and eastern Alaska Range. Southerly gap flow develops Tuesday into Wednesday om the Alaska Range passes with gusts to near 50 mph overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
A flood warning is out for the Yukon River near Pilot Station due to an ice jam, and a flood watch for the Yukon River to St.
Mary's. Concern will likely continue downstream for ice jams as ice remains thick. Water is also backing up along the Buckland River due an ice jam upstream of Buckland. This area will be monitored for possible flooding. Elsewhere, there will be up to an inch of rainfall (mixed snow above 2500 feet) over the E Alaska Range late this afternoon through Monday afternoon. No concerns at this time for this rainfall and snowfall.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ826.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

Kawanak Pass entrance, Yukon River, Bering Sea, Alaska, Tide feet

Kwikluak Pass, Yukon River, Bering Sea, Alaska, Tide feet

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