Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Copper Harbor, MI
May 1, 2024 5:43 PM EDT (21:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:32 AM Sunset 9:01 PM Moonrise 2:54 AM Moonset 11:46 AM |
LSZ244 /o.con.kmqt.ma.w.0056.000000t0000z-231005t2115z/ 458 Pm Edt Thu Oct 5 2023
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 515 pm edt - .
for the following areas - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time - .mot - .loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout - .possible hail - .<.75in wind - .>34kts
for the following areas - . Eagle river to manitou island mi - . Lake superior east of a line from manitou island to marquette mi and west of a line from grand marais mi to the us/canadian border beyond 5nm from shore - . Lake superior from upper entrance to portage canal to manitou island mi 5nm off shore to the us/canadian border - . Manitou island to point isabelle mi - .
at 457 pm edt, a severe Thunderstorm capable of producing waterspouts was located near brockway mountain, or 28 nm northwest of stannard rock, moving northeast at 40 knots.
hazard - .waterspouts, wind gusts 34 knots or greater, and small hail.
source - .radar indicated.
impact - .waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. Small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves.
locations impacted include - . Manitou island.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes.
Thunderstorms can produce sudden waterspouts. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally hazardous seas. SEek safe harbor immediately.
&&
lat - .lon 4763 8760 4743 8747 4732 8786 4749 8801 4766 8762 time - .mot - .loc 2057z 241deg 40kt 4745 8781
waterspout - .possible hail - .<.75in wind - .>34kts
Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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FXUS63 KMQT 011958 AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 358 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Patchy fog is possible across the Keweenaw, central, and east tonight.
- Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low pressure systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI.
Above normal precipitation expected, including chance of thunderstorms at times - Temperatures won't stray too far from normal most days, but they will be above normal more often than below normal.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Low-level stratus and cumulus clouds persist over the area as the low (now over eastern Lake Superior) spins into northern Ontario later this afternoon. Meanwhile, cold air advection behind the cold front continues to bring breezy westerly winds across the area this afternoon. While we have not seen that much sunshine across the U.P.
today, there have been a few spots in the south central that have already snuck into the low 60s. In addition, some light drizzle/rain showers continue this afternoon across the U.P., as seen on the current radar imagery. However, as the low continues to slowly pull away and daytime heating begins to wane later this afternoon into this evening, expect the shower activity to die-down, ceasing altogether by the early evening hours. While we will likely (70+%)
see skies becoming partly cloudy across the area this evening, expect more cloud cover to move overhead as another low pressure system approaches from Colorado. In addition, with dewpoints being higher than much of the model guidance due to the recent rainfall, some patchy fog looks to develop across the central, east, and Keweenaw tonight. Therefore, it's not out of the realm of possibility that visibilities get down to 1/4 to 1/2 miles across parts of the U.P. tonight, especially as localized surface ridging moving over us will calm the winds late. Thus, if you are out and about in the overnight hours or heading to work Thursday morning, be sure to keep your low-beam headlights on and drive a little slower.
Lows tonight are still projected to get down into the mid 30s to around 40.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Last 24hrs of medium range model guidance has maintained continuity in showing that the recent active pattern across the Lwr 48 will continue thru next week as a series of vigorous waves track off of the N Pacific and then across the U.S. This pattern will be beneficial in easing ongoing drought over western and eastern Upper MI as frequent rainfall events are expected, some potentially mdt to hvy. The latest drought monitor from 4/25 indicated drought conditions in western Upper MI were into the severe category in portions of Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. To the e, moderate drought was indicated from eastern Delta to western Mackinac counties. The frequent pcpn events will also ease spring fire weather concerns.
So, expectation is for overall above normal pcpn thru next week. As for temps, with the progressive nature of the flow and frequent shortwave passages, expect temps fluctuating around normal, likely not straying too far from normal on most days, rather than any prolonged periods of well above or well blo normal temps. Daily temps will end up on the warm side of normal more often than the cool side. Farther down the road, there are indications for a cooler period mid month per recent EPS runs which show troffing/weak negative height anomalies setting up over the Great Lakes region and ne U.S. CFSv2 ensemble mean also supports a cooler period mid month.
After a dry and quiet night with ridging briefly overhead, an upper low centered over the Rockies will begin to move into the Northern Plains Thursday. In response, strong waa/isentropic ascent will advance across the Upper Mississippi Valley to Upper MI Thu aftn/night. Strong 850-700mb moisture transport is also noted with precipitable water increasing to 200-250pct of normal. As a result, expect shra to spread ne into Upper MI during Thu aftn, especially across the w half. Shra will then continue across the area Thu night. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of 0.25-0.50 inches.
Ensemble probability guidance indicates a 30-60pct chc of exceeding 0.50 inches, and only a 10-20pct chc of exceeding 1 inch. The highest totals are now indicated mainly east of M-95, perhaps owing to the proximity of the left-exit region of the LLJ being directed over the area and lending some divergence aloft. Overall model trend has been to lower cape available for parcels lifted from top of sfc based inversion. So, potential of thunder has diminished.
On Fri, low pres will lift across western Lake Superior or ne MN early in the day and then into northern Ontario. Shra will end from west to east as associated cold or occluded front crosses the fcst area late Thu night thru early Fri aftn. With sharp drying occurring in the wake of the front, skies will trend mostly sunny early Fri over the west and later aftn across the east. High temps will range thru the 60s to lwr 70s F. Will be cooler near Lake Superior where westerly winds are an onshore wind and also near Lake MI as a southerly wind component will linger. Deepening mixed layer under increasing insolation will lead to a breezy day mainly in the western UP, especially across the Keweenaw where gusts to around 30mph should occur. There is also a potential for dewpoints to mix out fairly nicely, with RH currently forecast to drop into the lower 30s (and perhaps even the upper 20s) closer to the WI border in the western UP. Given breezy conditions, this is worth monitoring for any elevated fire weather risk. That said, as this will be immediately following a round of decent rainfall, so fuels should be moist.
Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will already be approaching by Sat aftn, resulting in a chc of shra spreading west to east Sat aftn/night. Model trends are toward a drier scenario, and ensemble guidance only indicates a 20-40pct chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch. Fcst will only reflect 30-40pct chc of shra Sat aftn/night.
In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sun with sfc high pres ridge arriving. Model agreement has notably improved for dry weather to continue on Mon as a more amplified mid-level ridge shifts over the area. While there is more uncertainty in timing shortwaves beyond Mon as is typical at this time range, models have trended toward better agreement. Next wave is likely to arrive Tue, bringing the next round of shra in the ongoing active pattern. Shra chc will continue on Wed as a potential mid-level low approaches from the west.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Expect the messy TAF conditions to continue the rest of today into Thursday as conditions slowly improve to MVFR/VFR across the area the rest of this afternoon. However, model guidance is hinting at some FG developing over KSAW and KCMX tonight, which would bring these terminals back down to LIFR again late tonight into Thursday morning. As yet another low pressure moves towards Upper MI Thursday, we could see rain showers move back over the area at the end/beyond the end of the current TAF period. As the rain approaches, expect conditions to improve.
While LLWS isn't expected, I'd say there's around a 30% chance that we could see some marginal low-level turbulence at KSAW and maybe (lower chance) at KCMX as mixing may cease and cause a 20 to 30 knot difference between the winds at the sfc and 2 kft aloft. However, as the night goes on, the threat for it diminishes, becoming 0% after midnight tonight.
MARINE
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Low pressure is beginning to move east of Lake Superior this afternoon, and though winds are turning calmer across western Lake Superior, they should remain elevated across the eastern half of the lake through this evening while shifting more to the west. Expect wind gusts generally in the 20-25kt range before winds fall back to around 5-10kts across the whole lake later tonight. Lighter winds under 15kt will linger across eastern Lake Superior on Thu. Over western Lake Superior, NE winds will be on the increase again on Thu as the next low pressure moves out over the central Plains. Expect NE winds up to 30kt by late Thu aftn over far western Lake Superior.
E to SE winds will increase up to 30kt over eastern Lake Superior Thu night. Probability guidance indicates a 10-30pct chc of low end gale gusts. As low pres lifts into northern Ontario on Fri, winds will shift s to sw. While gusts up to 30kt will continue over western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to under 20kt over the eastern lake. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly under 20kt across Lake Superior, then winds begin to pick up out of the E/SE early next week.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245- 246.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ241-242.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243- 244.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ247- 248.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ249.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221- 248-250.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 358 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Patchy fog is possible across the Keweenaw, central, and east tonight.
- Active pattern continues through next week as a series of low pressure systems track across the U.S. and affect Upper MI.
Above normal precipitation expected, including chance of thunderstorms at times - Temperatures won't stray too far from normal most days, but they will be above normal more often than below normal.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Low-level stratus and cumulus clouds persist over the area as the low (now over eastern Lake Superior) spins into northern Ontario later this afternoon. Meanwhile, cold air advection behind the cold front continues to bring breezy westerly winds across the area this afternoon. While we have not seen that much sunshine across the U.P.
today, there have been a few spots in the south central that have already snuck into the low 60s. In addition, some light drizzle/rain showers continue this afternoon across the U.P., as seen on the current radar imagery. However, as the low continues to slowly pull away and daytime heating begins to wane later this afternoon into this evening, expect the shower activity to die-down, ceasing altogether by the early evening hours. While we will likely (70+%)
see skies becoming partly cloudy across the area this evening, expect more cloud cover to move overhead as another low pressure system approaches from Colorado. In addition, with dewpoints being higher than much of the model guidance due to the recent rainfall, some patchy fog looks to develop across the central, east, and Keweenaw tonight. Therefore, it's not out of the realm of possibility that visibilities get down to 1/4 to 1/2 miles across parts of the U.P. tonight, especially as localized surface ridging moving over us will calm the winds late. Thus, if you are out and about in the overnight hours or heading to work Thursday morning, be sure to keep your low-beam headlights on and drive a little slower.
Lows tonight are still projected to get down into the mid 30s to around 40.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Last 24hrs of medium range model guidance has maintained continuity in showing that the recent active pattern across the Lwr 48 will continue thru next week as a series of vigorous waves track off of the N Pacific and then across the U.S. This pattern will be beneficial in easing ongoing drought over western and eastern Upper MI as frequent rainfall events are expected, some potentially mdt to hvy. The latest drought monitor from 4/25 indicated drought conditions in western Upper MI were into the severe category in portions of Gogebic/Ontonagon counties. To the e, moderate drought was indicated from eastern Delta to western Mackinac counties. The frequent pcpn events will also ease spring fire weather concerns.
So, expectation is for overall above normal pcpn thru next week. As for temps, with the progressive nature of the flow and frequent shortwave passages, expect temps fluctuating around normal, likely not straying too far from normal on most days, rather than any prolonged periods of well above or well blo normal temps. Daily temps will end up on the warm side of normal more often than the cool side. Farther down the road, there are indications for a cooler period mid month per recent EPS runs which show troffing/weak negative height anomalies setting up over the Great Lakes region and ne U.S. CFSv2 ensemble mean also supports a cooler period mid month.
After a dry and quiet night with ridging briefly overhead, an upper low centered over the Rockies will begin to move into the Northern Plains Thursday. In response, strong waa/isentropic ascent will advance across the Upper Mississippi Valley to Upper MI Thu aftn/night. Strong 850-700mb moisture transport is also noted with precipitable water increasing to 200-250pct of normal. As a result, expect shra to spread ne into Upper MI during Thu aftn, especially across the w half. Shra will then continue across the area Thu night. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of 0.25-0.50 inches.
Ensemble probability guidance indicates a 30-60pct chc of exceeding 0.50 inches, and only a 10-20pct chc of exceeding 1 inch. The highest totals are now indicated mainly east of M-95, perhaps owing to the proximity of the left-exit region of the LLJ being directed over the area and lending some divergence aloft. Overall model trend has been to lower cape available for parcels lifted from top of sfc based inversion. So, potential of thunder has diminished.
On Fri, low pres will lift across western Lake Superior or ne MN early in the day and then into northern Ontario. Shra will end from west to east as associated cold or occluded front crosses the fcst area late Thu night thru early Fri aftn. With sharp drying occurring in the wake of the front, skies will trend mostly sunny early Fri over the west and later aftn across the east. High temps will range thru the 60s to lwr 70s F. Will be cooler near Lake Superior where westerly winds are an onshore wind and also near Lake MI as a southerly wind component will linger. Deepening mixed layer under increasing insolation will lead to a breezy day mainly in the western UP, especially across the Keweenaw where gusts to around 30mph should occur. There is also a potential for dewpoints to mix out fairly nicely, with RH currently forecast to drop into the lower 30s (and perhaps even the upper 20s) closer to the WI border in the western UP. Given breezy conditions, this is worth monitoring for any elevated fire weather risk. That said, as this will be immediately following a round of decent rainfall, so fuels should be moist.
Dry weather will continue Fri night. Then, next shortwave will already be approaching by Sat aftn, resulting in a chc of shra spreading west to east Sat aftn/night. Model trends are toward a drier scenario, and ensemble guidance only indicates a 20-40pct chance of rainfall exceeding a tenth of an inch. Fcst will only reflect 30-40pct chc of shra Sat aftn/night.
In the wake of the shortwave, dry weather returns for Sun with sfc high pres ridge arriving. Model agreement has notably improved for dry weather to continue on Mon as a more amplified mid-level ridge shifts over the area. While there is more uncertainty in timing shortwaves beyond Mon as is typical at this time range, models have trended toward better agreement. Next wave is likely to arrive Tue, bringing the next round of shra in the ongoing active pattern. Shra chc will continue on Wed as a potential mid-level low approaches from the west.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 232 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Expect the messy TAF conditions to continue the rest of today into Thursday as conditions slowly improve to MVFR/VFR across the area the rest of this afternoon. However, model guidance is hinting at some FG developing over KSAW and KCMX tonight, which would bring these terminals back down to LIFR again late tonight into Thursday morning. As yet another low pressure moves towards Upper MI Thursday, we could see rain showers move back over the area at the end/beyond the end of the current TAF period. As the rain approaches, expect conditions to improve.
While LLWS isn't expected, I'd say there's around a 30% chance that we could see some marginal low-level turbulence at KSAW and maybe (lower chance) at KCMX as mixing may cease and cause a 20 to 30 knot difference between the winds at the sfc and 2 kft aloft. However, as the night goes on, the threat for it diminishes, becoming 0% after midnight tonight.
MARINE
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024
Low pressure is beginning to move east of Lake Superior this afternoon, and though winds are turning calmer across western Lake Superior, they should remain elevated across the eastern half of the lake through this evening while shifting more to the west. Expect wind gusts generally in the 20-25kt range before winds fall back to around 5-10kts across the whole lake later tonight. Lighter winds under 15kt will linger across eastern Lake Superior on Thu. Over western Lake Superior, NE winds will be on the increase again on Thu as the next low pressure moves out over the central Plains. Expect NE winds up to 30kt by late Thu aftn over far western Lake Superior.
E to SE winds will increase up to 30kt over eastern Lake Superior Thu night. Probability guidance indicates a 10-30pct chc of low end gale gusts. As low pres lifts into northern Ontario on Fri, winds will shift s to sw. While gusts up to 30kt will continue over western Lake Superior, winds will fall off to under 20kt over the eastern lake. Over the weekend, expect winds mostly under 20kt across Lake Superior, then winds begin to pick up out of the E/SE early next week.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ245- 246.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ241-242.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243- 244.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ247- 248.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ249.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ250-251.
Lake Michigan...
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221- 248-250.
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Marquette, MI,
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