Wednesday, November14, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 4:39PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 5:51 AM EST (10:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 9:44PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 63.03, -82.89     debug

Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 140938
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
438 am est Wed nov 14 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 336 am est Wed nov 14 2018
to main areas of focus over the next 24 hours are the ongoing lake
effect snow showers and their demise later today, then the potential
for gusty southwest winds late tonight through the early morning
hours on Thursday. Early this morning, light lake effect snow
showers continued across western upper michigan, mainly between
ironwood and houghton, and then the more robust lake effect snow
showers continued around and east of munising.

Today, as return flow develops across western upper michigan, we
will remain along the inflection point between return flow out west
and northwest to west flow out east. This means ongoing light lake
effect snow showers across the west and north central will gradually
come to an end this morning and or push offshore. Out east, mainly
around and east of munising, expect the moderate lake effect snow
showers to continue through the rest of the morning hours. With more
organized, dominant bands could see reduced visibilities and
enhanced snowfall rates, causing hazardous travel. Later this
afternoon into the early evening hours, these lingering moderate
lake effect snow showers will diminish and eventually push offshore
as 850mb flow backs west to southwest and increasing large-scale
subsidence overspreads the upper peninsula with high pressure
tracking east across the region today.

Tonight, the main concern is the development of breezy southwest
winds. The combination of the above mentioned high pressure sliding
over the eastern great lakes and the developing surface low to our
northeast in canada will allow for an enhanced pressure gradient to
develop. This pressure gradient combined with a synoptically
enhanced low-level jet upwards of 50 knots at times will work
together to bring windy conditions across west and north central,
where wind gusts could approach 35 mph at times. Across north
central upper michigan, southwest winds will promote sufficient
downsloping, which could further enhance mixing and wind speeds in
those locations overnight into early Thursday morning. Elsewhere,
winds will be breezy, but the pressure gradient will not be as
strong, so only expecting wind gusts upwards of 25 mph. The only
wild card factor is the more stable, warm air advection which could
favor more sporadic wind gusts, rather then persistent. While
overnight lows will be warmer due to warm air advection and a very
turbulent boundary layer, it will certainly still feel blustery out

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 434 am est Wed nov 14 2018
over the last several days, medium range models have shown a notable
trend toward delaying the expected warmer period for late nov, and
they have also made the duration of the warmer period much more
uncertain. The trend has been for the western N america ridge to be
more resilient, resulting in persistence of central to eastern n
america troffing. Guidance is still indicating that the western
ridge ridge positive height anomalies will eventually shift
downstream toward eastern N america by late next week, though in a
much weakened state. However, a massive mid-level anticyclone is
also fcst to develop vcnty of scandinavia this weekend (500mb height
anomalies around 400m). If this positive height anomaly retrogrades
to greenland vcnty as much of the recent guidance indicates,
resulting negative nao would favor continued or a return to eastern
n america troffing after a warmer period later next week. All in
all, there is considerable uncertainty in pattern evolution beyond
this 7 day fcst period. In the meantime, with the persistence of
central to eastern N america troffing, blo normal temps will
dominate until the middle of next week. There will be a brief warmup
to near normal temps tomorrow (thu) as temporary breakdown of the
western ridge allows a push of pacific air across the conus.

Reamplification of the western ridge will then force renewed
troffing and a surge of cold air back into the upper lakes over the
weekend with another reinforcing surge for mon. Thereafter,
developing trof into the NE pacific will force rising heights and
pacific air downstream. So, still expect temps to return to around
normal, perhaps above normal briefly, during the last half of next
week. As for pcpn, dry weather will prevail thu, then passing cold
front should bring some pcpn Thu night. Les will redevelop heading
into and thru the weekend and on into early next week under cold air
mass. Overall, nothing of widespread significance is expected, but
there will likely be a few brief periods of mdt hvy les associated
with passing shortwaves sfc trofs. A drier pattern will evolve mid
week, though under WAA pattern, wouldn't be out of the question for
a brief period of light pcpn to occur.

Beginning thu, shortwave will move the dakotas Thu morning to the
upper great lakes Thu night. Despite ongoing isentropic ascent thru
the morning ahead of this wave, fcst soundings maintain dry low to
mid levels, and thus no pcpn is expected. Will be a breezy day,
though some weakening of low-level wind fields will lead to gradual
diminishing winds during the aftn. In the morning, it will be windy
in the higher terrain down to the lakeshore across the W and n. In
the downslope areas of the N central, gusts to 40mph will be
possible in the morning. Thu will be the warmest day of the fcst
period until the middle of next week. Expect highs in the mid 30s to
around 40f. There will be increasing height falls deep layer forcing
as wave approaches late in the day, but more so into Thu night. As a
result, would expect pcpn to develop eventually heading thru thu
night. Cooling column will support ptype as shsn, but there may be a
little rain mixed in initially. Some lake enhancement should also
occur as winds shift to the NW and 850mb temps fall toward -6c. Snow
accumulations of 2-3in a possibility over the high terrain of the w.

As 850mb temps fall steadily Fri fri night, reaching -12 to -15c by
12z sat, expect NW flow les to increase in coverage gradually,
especially Fri night as a shortwave moves to the the upper lakes.

Winds will also veer more northerly with the passage of this wave
fri night. With inversions up around 8kft Fri night and CAA causing
the dgz to descend to a more favorable position in the convective
layer, a few inches of snow certainly possible in the NW to N wind
favored snow belts into Sat morning. Probably won't require any advy

Winds back westerly Sat into Sat evening ahead of the next shortwave
diving SE toward the upper lakes. This wave will bring a reinforcing
cold surge later Sun into mon. So, ongoing les will shift to W wind
snow belts by Sat night. Steadily backing winds that take on
increasing anticyclonic curvature on Sat will keep les on the light
side. As shortwave approaches Sun and synoptic forcing overspreads
lake superior, looks like a typical setup for hvy W flow les to take
shape during the day Sun as cold front drops S over the lake,
resulting in developing convergence zone over the water. This band
of hvy les along the front will then drop into upper mi at some
point Sun aftn night. Quick transition to ridging subsidence behind
the cold front will diminish les during the day on Mon and yield
generally light accumulations. Air mass that follows the cold front
looks similar to the cold air mass that was over the area yesterday
(tue). So, highs Mon may only be in the mid teens to around 20f.

Drier conditions will return Tue Wed as WAA and backing winds bring
an end to les.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Wednesday night)
issued at 1224 am est Wed nov 14 2018
MVFR conditions continue at kiwd kcmx with light lake effect snow
through the morning hours and then gradually diminish as high
pressure moves overhead. Ksaw is right along the edge of lingering
lake effect snow showers early this morning, but downsloping
winds will keep ceilings in theVFR category. Northwest to west
winds will become southerly towards the end of this TAF period,
with low-level wind shear working into kiwd as a strong low-level
jet begins to move into the region.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 336 am est Wed nov 14 2018
west to northwest winds of 20 to 30 knots, will gradually diminish
late this morning into the afternoon hours to less than 20 knots as
surface ridging slides across the great lakes. This lull in winds
later today will be short lived as the pressure gradient increases
tonight through Thursday morning, ushering in gales of 35 to 40
knots. Have upgraded the gale watch to gale warning this morning
given the strong pressure gradient and 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
progged to track over the upper great lakes. Thursday afternoon
through the overnight hours, southwest winds will relax below 30
knots, and will eventually switch around to the northwest as a cold
front pushes east across the lake early Friday. These northwest
winds will remain between 20 to 30 knots, with the higher winds over
eastern lake superior. A few gale force gusts to 35 knots over
eastern lake superior may be possible behind the exiting front on
Friday. Saturday into early next week, winds will remain between 20
and 30 knots.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

winter weather advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for miz006-

Lake superior...

gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm est Thursday for

Gale warning from 9 pm est 8 pm cst this evening to 7 am est
6 am cst Thursday for lsz162-263.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 7 am est Thursday for

Lake michigan...


Short term... Ritzman
long term... Rolfson
aviation... Ritzman
marine... Ritzman

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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.