Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

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Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:37 AM EDT (04:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 10:33PM Illumination 42% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 63.03, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 172349
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
749 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018

Short term (this evening through Saturday)
issued at 354 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
satellite imagery showed the leading edge of the smoke from the
western north american fires enchroaching from the west towards the
upper peninsula, and eventually reaching the central up this
afternoon. Smoke was fortunately not mixing down to the surface for
most areas, although it was significantly limiting the light
filtering through to the surface. This has reduced the surface
heating this afternoon for portions of the up, otherwise locations
downwind of the smoke shield have seen temps warm into the lower
80s. Minimal pressure gradient from the northeast has allowed the
onshore flow to persist for areas along the superior shoreline,
which has held temps in the upper 60s to around 70 this afternoon.

Expect the overnight hours to be relatively quiet, with the only
challenge being fog development and placement. Expect the fog to
slowly develop from iwd to imt, then begin to spread north of that
line towards cmx. Guidance has exhibited a low confidence on
intensity, so expect at this time vsbys to fall to around 2-3 miles
and persist until daybreak. The wildcard will be smoke coverage, and
an area of stratus that is trying to slide south across lake
superior. If this stratus deck slows over the up this evening, this
will most likely minimize the fog coverage and keep surface temps
warmer. Have lows tonight falling into the 50s for most locations.

Saturday will continue to be a relatively quiet day, with dry
weather expected yet again under diffluent flow aloft. Mid-lvl
trough axis will be displaced to the east of the area, with a quasi-
cool northwest flow overhead. This should produce partly cloudy
skies with temps in the 70s for most locations across the up. The
exception will be areas adjacent to lake superior that could see
onshore flow develop earlier and hold temps in the 60s.

Long term (Saturday night through Friday)
issued at 406 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
during the long term, there are 2 main systems that will affect the
weather over the upper lakes, the first early next week and the
second late week. Vigorous shortwave currently moving across the
pacific NW will track ese into the central plains by Mon morning. As
this wave moves to the plains, strong height rises along the W coast
of canada into ak will begin to force trof amplification into
central N america early next week. Shortwave dropping SE in
association with this amplification will in turn force the plains
wave NE across the great lakes region on Tue and on into eastern
canada on wed. Degree of interaction btwn the 2 waves will dictate
track strength of what may end up being an unusually deep sfc low
for aug as it tracks NE across the great lakes region... A preview of
the fall storm season which is quickly approaching. For upper mi, at
least some showers will occur here early next week, either
associated the NE moving wave or the SE moving wave. Whether or not
the heavier, steadier rain closer to the NE moving sfc low impacts
the fcst area remains to be seen. Above normal temps prevailing
ahead of the system will only briefly fall back to near slighly blo
normal behind it as the amplifying mid-level trof quickly swings
eastward. A deep mid-level low is fcst to settle over hudson bay
during the mid-week period. Shortwave swinging around this feature
may force a cold front S into the upper lakes on thu, but that looks
doubtful. What it will do is bring a quick warmup midweek under
developing westerly flow S of the mid-level low. For being well out
in the model runs, medium range guidance is in decent agreement
showing the next more notable shortwave tracking E toward the upper
lakes late week, bringing the next chc of showers at that time.

Beginning Sat night sun, dry warm weather will be the rule as we
await the plains shortwave and or shortwave dropping SE thru canada.

Expect min temps in the 50s lwr 60s Sat night. Closer to departing
sfc high, traditional cold spots over the interior E half will
probably fall blo 50f. Could be the typical late summer radiation
fog patches Sat night under clear skies calm wind, especially in low
swampy areas and around rivers lakes. Temps will reach the low mid
80s on sun, locally cooler along the great lakes in the aftn.

Organizing sfc low over the central plains Sun night will deepen as
it lifts ne, passing across lwr mi on tue. While track of sfc low is
fairly well agreed upon among the models, the complicated
interaction of the 2 shortwaves involved leads to lower confidence
in the depth of the sfc low and how expansive the evolving pcpn
shield will be, and that uncertainty is further complicated at this
time of year by how convection evolves with the southern wave.

Whether the hvy pcpn consistently showed by models along just N of
sfc low track expands far enough N to impact the fcst area remains
to be seen. Last few days of model runs, especially ecmwf, suggest
the SE part of the fcst area has best chc of seeing at least mdt
pcpn amounts. Record low sea level pressures in the upper lakes in
the month of aug are in the mid and upper 990s mb, so some
skepticism is required for model runs that are wrapped up with the
sfc low, dipping pres blo 1000mb as it moves across lwr mi. Will
certainly be something to monitor as this will impact winds most
notably over the great lakes. In any event, sfc cold front
associated with trof amplifying S thru canada will likely push over
upper mi Sun night and may clear the fcst area on Mon or hang up
over SE portions of the area. Upper divergence associated with right
entrance of upper jet across northern ontario into northern quebec
should aid development of at least sct shra along behind front as it
slows down stalls out Sun night mon. Could be some thunder, but
there's not a lot of instability. As southern wave sfc low then lift
ne, mdt hvy pcpn will spread into the great lakes Mon night tue
morning. SE half of the fcst area has the best chc of getting into
this heavier pcpn. Pcpn will then quickly shift E and NE out of the
area Tue aftn night. After a cooler Tue with clouds shra, Wed will
turn warmer sunny as mid-level trof shifts eastward.

Thu looks warm, provided a cold front does not drop S into the area
as alluded to above. MAX temps around 80f will be the rule. Next
shortwave should arrive from the W Fri sat, bringing the next chc of
shra.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 749 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
fog will become the main concern tonight, but that should be
confined to kiwd. Expect vis to drop below a mile with accompanying
low ceilings. Smoke will continue to cover the area through
Saturday, but should not be as dense as this evening and should
remain aloft with no surface visibility restrictions expected.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 354 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
winds will generally be less than 15 kts thru tonight Sunday;
however, the typical funnelling and tightening across the far
western arm of lake superior will see locally higher speeds into dlh
area in the afternoon early evening hours. Otherwise light winds
from the northeast elsewhere. An area of low pres is expected to
track NE into the great lakes region late Mon tue. This system will
bring northerly winds of at least 15-25kt with gusts to 30kt.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Beachler
long term... Rolfson
aviation... Titus
marine... Beachler


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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.