Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:57AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:43 PM EST (21:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:04PMMoonset 10:40AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 63.03, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 232032
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
332 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 332 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
current water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy continuing to
lift northeast across the southern great lakes and up into lower
michigan. Over the last few hours, the system snowfall impacting the
south central and eastern upper michigan has weakened as the deeper
moisture continues to lift northeast of the area. However, lake
enhanced snow off of lake superior did blossomed this afternoon,
mainly across alger county. Further west, light lake effect snow
showers have persisted through much of the day.

This evening the ongoing synoptic snow across the south central and
east will gradually come to an end as the main shortwave and surface
low lift northeast into ontario. Before all is said and done, a few
locations out east could pick up another 1-2'' through this evening.

As we go through the overnight hours, remnant weak troughing will
remain in place across lake superior, as well as 850mb flow out of
the northwest and favorable instability for lake effect snow mainly
across the northwest wind snow belts. A few of the high-res models
do show the potential for a few stronger snow bands around and east
of munising overnight, but they are expected to remain fairly
transient so kept snowfall amounts between 1-3''. Out west, the
lingering lake effect snow showers should push northward and focus
across the higher terrain in northern ontonagon county up into
northern houghton county. With the above mentioned surface trough
anchored west to east across lake superior, it does appear that
there will be a sharp zone of convergences across that area.

Therefore, did focus the higher snowfall accumulations of 2-4''
across those areas. With snowfall expected to be of the fluffy, lake
effect variety, opted for no headlines out west until the arrival of
the arctic front and worsening conditions expected on Thursday.

Now onto the other focus during this time period - the arrival of
the arctic front. There will be a plethora of hazards associated with
this front as it sweeps west to east across upper michigan during
the day on Thursday: 1) onset of blustery conditions with sharply
falling temperatures throughout the day, 2) significant reductions
in visibilities due to blowing and falling snow, and 3) moderate
accumulations of lake effect enhanced snow. As for timing, the front
will push into western upper michigan between 8 and 11am est,
central upper michigan 12pm to 3pm est, and eastern upper michigan
3pm to 6pm est. As the front moves through, winds will shift
northwesterly and increase in speed. The highest speeds are expected
along the lake superior shoreline, especially over the tip of the
keweenaw, where winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph. Further
inland, wind gusts will be reduced, but we could see some stronger
winds across central upper michigan between lake superior and lake
michigan as the trough axis swings through. Along with these winds
will come sharply falling temperatures and the development of
bitterly cold conditions. By mid-afternoon, wind chills across much
of the area are forecast to drop to around -10 to -25f across the
west half, and around 0 to 5 above across the south central and east
half.

Accompanying the blustery conditions will be the lake
enhanced effect snow along the trough axis as the arctic front
charges through the area. Initially, at the onset of the snow
forecast soundings do show lift through the dgz, so wouldn't be
surprised if there are periods of efficient snowfall right along and
immediately behind the trough axis. However, throughout the day the
dgz is progged to shrink as the arctic air mass continue to work
into the region, lowering slrs and qpf. As for locations that will
see snow on Thursday, thinking all of upper michigan will see some
snow, but areas across the northwest wind snow belts will see the
higher accumulations given the prevailing northwesterly 850mb flow
behind the front. Given the strength of the winds, wouldn't be
surprised if stronger lake effect snow bands do push further inland
than typical. While it's important to discuss snowfall
accumulations, will withhold from doing so too much considering the
bigger issues will come with the blowing and drifting snow.

Especially now with ice building up in the nearshore zones of lake
superior, there will be the enhanced potential for near white-out
conditions at times along the lake superior shoreline after the
arctic front passes and winds pick up. Given the northwest wind
directions, it appears the higher impacts from the blowing snow and
possibility of white out conditions will be felt out west and east
of marquette. Due to these significant impacts, we have issued a
winter storm warning for all counties bordering lake superior,
expect for baraga county where issues along the lakeshore will be
limited due to the wind direction. Did opt to include marquette
county within the warning as a sliver of the shoreline looks to be
impacted and there will be impacts across far eastern parts of the
county.

Long term (Thursday night through Wednesday)
issued at 320 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Very cold with bouts of severe cold expected over the next week
along with dangerous travel conditions in the lake effect snow
belts...

cold will lock in for the upper lakes for the next 7 to 10 days
under a highly amplified pattern. Strong positive height
anomalies ridging developing over far western N america and another
strong height anomaly over the N atlantic will force a deep mean
trough centered from hudson bay to the great lakes, a classic
pattern for cold below normal temps, and at times, severe cold for
the upper lakes. Models advertise several surges of reinforcing
bitter cold air into the upper lakes as the mean trough sets up from
hudson bay to the great lakes. The most significant surge of cold
air will likely occur Sat night into Sunday with another one due in
next Tuesday. Once the upper great lakes gets deep into the bitter
cold arctic air mass starting Thu night, lake effect snow
accumulations will likely be limited from Fri heading into next week
as the dgz will either be eliminated or squashed near the sfc of
lake superior. This will result in fine powdery lake effect snow
that is extremely effective at reducing vsby, but does not add up to
significant accumulation (generally 1-4 inches 12 hours). Expect
near constant white-out conditions in the lake effect snow belts.

The combination of extreme cold and white-out conditions in the lake
superior snow belts will lead to dangerous winter weather from thu
into much of next week. Anyone with travel plans Thu through at
least the middle of next week should be aware that travel in the
lake superior snow belts will be dangerous anytime winds have an
onshore component. It will be dangerously cold at times (either wind
chills or actual temperature) across all of the fcst area.

Beginning Thu night, as air mass gets increasingly colder in a nw
flow snowflake size in lake effect bands will become small and
highly effective at reducing visibility, and the snow will be easily
blown about. So even though winds will diminish later Thu night,
expect white-out near white-out conditions to continue in the nw
flow les bands. Conditions will be especially difficult across the
keweenaw and between marquette and munising. The bitter cold will
also be a significant impact. Temps by Fri morning will be zero to
20f below with wind chills 20 below to 35 below zero. Counties not
impacted by the lake effect snow and blowing snow Thu into Thu night
will still be impacted by dangerous cold wind chills late Thu night
into Fri morning. As a result have issued an sps for baraga, iron,
dickinson, menominee and delta counties for late Thu into Fri to
highlight dangerously cold wind chills.

Winds will begin to back slowly fri, aided by land breeze
components, but more so Fri night Sat in response to next
shortwave arctic surge heading sse toward the upper lakes. As is
typical, expect a dominant w-e les band to form on the leading edge
of the backing winds as convergence becomes focused. This band may
end up hanging up on the keweenaw on Sat prior to the arrival of the
next shortwave arctic surge Sat night. Les will probably end for a
time over the eastern fcst area on Sat as winds back sufficiently to
the wsw sw. Another blast of heavy lake enhanced snow strong
winds blsn will then accompany this next arctic front off lake
superior Sat night. This surge of arctic air could be the coldest
yet as the 12z GFS and 00z ECMWF indicate -30 to -35c 850mb temps
which would likely yield subzero highs across much of the fcst area
on sun.

May see a fairly decent clipper shortwave round the western ridge
and track thru the mid mississippi valley great lakes region on mon
but this wave may be too far S of the area to have much impact other
than swinging around winds to east and confine les to the keweenaw.

Another arctic shortwave may drop into the upper lakes Tue wed,
bringing another surge of bitter cold air and shifting winds back
around to the nw. This will allow fine-flaked les to move back
onshore for much of the area and create more white-out concerns for
the NW wind snowbelts.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Thursday afternoon)
issued at 1235 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
basic story of this TAF period is lake-effect snow tapering off by
evening, a break late evening, and then a strong cold front moving
in from the NW thurs morning at cmx and iwd (and early afternoon at
saw) with rapidly deteriorating conditions due to snow, gusty n
wind, and blowing snow. In the short-term... Expect that lake-effect
snow showers will wrap up quickly next few hours at iwd so have only
tempo ifr vis for them. Les bands will persist longer at cmx but
will weaken for a few hours tonight as well. At saw this afternoon,
edge of steadier snow (with associated ifr vis) is oh so close to
the se. It will graze the area next few hours so have them in tempo
ifr until 21z. After that, conditions improve toVFR by tonight.

Aforementioned cold front may not actually hit saw until after end
of TAF period but included a line at end of TAF anyway to indicate
rapid deterioration in conditions expected there as well.

Marine (for the 4 pm lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 332 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
winds will remain between 15 to 25 knots through today. Then, in the
wake of a passing arctic cold front, northwest to north gales 35 to
45 knots will overspread the lake Thursday into Thursday night.

While the winds relax, elevated speeds of 15 to 25 knots Friday into
the weekend will work in concert with the bitterly cold air mass to
allow for a prolonged period of freezing spray. Could see a brief
period of gales towards the end of the weekend.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

winter storm warning from 8 am est 7 am cst Thursday to 7 am
est 6 am cst Friday for miz002-009-084.

Winter weather advisory until 7 pm est this evening for miz006-
007-014-085.

Winter storm warning from 2 pm Thursday to 7 am est Friday for
miz006-007-085.

Winter storm warning from 5 am Thursday to 7 am est Friday for
miz001-003.

Winter storm warning from 1 pm Thursday to 7 am est Friday for
miz005.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est 3 pm cst this afternoon
for miz012-013.

Lake superior...

heavy freezing spray warning from 10 am Thursday to 10 am est
Sunday for lsz245>251-265>267.

Gale warning from 10 am Thursday to 7 am est Friday for
lsz243>250-264>266.

Heavy freezing spray warning from 7 am Thursday to 10 am est
Sunday for lsz243-244-264.

Heavy freezing spray warning from 1 am est midnight cst
Thursday to 10 am est 9 am cst Sunday for lsz162-240>242-
263.

Gale warning from 7 am est 6 am cst to 10 pm est 9 pm cst
Thursday for lsz162-240>242-263.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Ritzman
long term... Voss
aviation... Rjc
marine... Ritzman


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.