Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Copper Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 4:23PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 6:50 AM EST (11:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:55PMMoonset 3:30AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Copper Harbor, MI
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location: 63.03, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Marquette, MI
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Fxus63 kmqt 180950
afdmqt
area forecast discussion
national weather service marquette mi
450 am est Tue dec 18 2018

Short term (today and tonight)
issued at 449 am est Tue dec 18 2018
water vapor imagery and rap analysis show a broad northern stream
ridge across much of western and central canada. Within the ridge, a
shortwave trof is shifting from saskatchewan to manitoba. At the
sfc, high pres ridge associated with the mid-level ridge extends
from northern ontario S across upper mi. Ahead of the ridge,
weakening northerly low-level flow is still maintaining lake
cloudiness into the eastern fcst area early this morning. On the
backside of the ridge axis, developing light sse low-level flow has
recently supported additional upslope and lake aided clouds over
parts of N central upper mi and the keweenaw. Farther W and sw,
clear skies and calm wind during the night have allowed temps to
fall into the single digits with traditional cold spots down around
5f as expected. Under the clouds over the e, temps are in the 20s.

Despite the saskatchewan manitoba shortwave shifting E across
northern ontario this aftn evening, the short term will be
uneventful with regard to pcpn as dry air continues to dominate most
of the low and mid-levels. Initially, only fcst issue is lake aided
clouds which will persist until air mass moderates sufficiently
today under WAA regime in response to the aforementioned shortwave.

As low-level winds veer S to ssw this morning, clouds over the
keweenaw and N central upper mi will clear out. Clearing will take
longer farther E under low-level ssw winds up lake mi. Will need to
wait for enough warming to decrease overwater instability
sufficiently to bring an end to lake cloud generation, and that
should happen during the aftn. While lower clouds clear out, looks
like quite a bit of high cloudiness will eventually overspread the
area as the day progresses. Tightening pres gradient btwn departing
high pres ridge and approaching sfc trof and zone of decent sfc pres
falls around 5mb 3hr pushing across northern ontario upper lakes
will result in breezy conditions developing from W to E today. Gusts
up around 30mph should occur across portions of the N and e. Expect
highs in the 30s, though locations that see downsloping over the w
should top 40f.

Pacific air mass over the area tonight (850mb temps 3c to 6c)
combined with considerable high clouds and probably eventual
development of lower clouds for at least parts of the area will lead
to a warm night for mid dec standards. Expect mins in the mid 20s to
around 30f which will be 10-20 degrees above normal.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)
issued at 443 am est Tue dec 18 2018
mean mid-upper level ridging in a quasi-zonal flow holds over the
area into Wed before the transition to a more amplified pattern
leads to the development of a phased deeper system over the
lower great lakes region late in the week.

Weak mid-level mean ridging in a zonal flow will ensure drier and
milder conditions continue into wed.

Models indicate a transition to a more amplified pattern for late
week as a deep trough develops over the central conus. The mid-level
trough axis approaches the upper great lakes Wed night and pushes a
weak cold front into upper mi Wed night into Thu bringing with it a
chance of light mixed pcpn. Stronger forcing fgen ahead of the
shortwave and along the frontal boundary will support the best
chance of pcpn over the western counties where likely pops are
warranted late Wed night. Both the operational 00z GFS and ecmwf
continue to trend farther east with the deepening low pressure
system developing over the far lower great lakes region by Friday.

With 00z ECMWF and GFS solutions showing the sfc low developing
well SE of the upper great lakes, the impact of this system for
our area would likely be minimal as deeper moisture and better
forcing for this system should stay E of upper mi and lake
superior. Models indicate the best potential for any lake enhanced
snow would likely occur Thu into early Fri as the mid-level
trough axis moves across the area. However, h85 temps at this time
are not particularly cold over lake superior falling only to
around -8c over the eastern lake between 06-12z fri. Under these
model scenarios and with model soundings showing fairly shallow
moisture with inversion heights 4-5 kft, expect only light
accumulations of nne flow lake enhanced snow into north central
counties Thu night into fri. If models trend farther west with the
lower great lakes storm track then impacts into the upper great
lakes for late week could be greater, but at this time impacts
look pretty minimal.

Ridging building back in the area from the north and west should
lead to les tapering off or ending late Fri night with generally dry
conditions by sat. The approach of another shortwave and cold front
from the west will bring light snow showers back into the western
cwa later Sat evening spreading across the rest of the CWA on
Sunday. Increasing CAA in a wnw flow late Sun into Mon as h85 temps
lower to -12c to -14c could lead to light accumulations of les over
mainly NW upper mi and the far eastern shoreline areas of the u.P.

The 00z ECMWF advertises a stronger shortwave and associated sfc low
from the southern central plains tracking NE into the western great
lakes and spreading a few inches of snow across the area on
christmas day. This solution however must be taken with a grain of
salt as the 00z GFS and previous 12z run of the ECMWF were much
weaker and farther south with this system, keeping any accumulating
snow well south of the area.

High temps on Wed should be mild with readings well into the 30s and
even lower 40s. High temps will then trend steadily cooler for the
end of the week falling toward seasonal norms with readings in the
20s for the weekend into the early part of next week.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Tuesday night)
issued at 1210 am est Tue dec 18 2018
a small pocket of MVFR ceilings has pushed into ksaw early this
morning and will continue to impact the terminal, but will clear up
taf issuance. OtherwiseVFR conditions are expected across all
terminals this morning. Llws will increase this morning, and then
winds will begin to translate down to the surface. This will result
in southerly winds increasing, with gusts upwards of 20 to 30 knots
at times later this morning and afternoon. Ceilings will remainVFR
through early afternoon, with the potential for ceilings lowering
into the MVFR category later tonight as moisture lifts north ahead
of an approaching low.

Marine (for the 4 am lake superior forecast issuance)
issued at 449 am est Tue dec 18 2018
under passing sfc high pres ridge, winds are light across lake
superior early this morning. As the ridge departs and a low pres
trof approaches, southerly winds will quickly ramp up to generally
20-30kt from W to E across the lake today. Aided by an area of
decent sfc pres falls passing across northern ontario lake superior,
wind gusts will probably reach gale force to around 35kt at high obs
platforms across the E half of the lake for about a 2-4hr period mid
aftn to early evening. With the trof passage, winds will then
diminish to under 20kt tonight wed. Another trof passage on thu,
followed by deepening low pres lifting nne into the lower great
lakes on fri, will lead to a period of stronger northerly winds late
thu into fri. The stronger winds will be over the E half of the
lake, up to 30kt. Sfc high pres ridge nosing S into the upper lakes
on Sat will result in diminishing winds.

Mqt watches warnings advisories
Upper michigan...

none.

Lake superior...

none.

Lake michigan...

none.

Short term... Rolfson
long term... Voss
aviation... Ritzman
marine... Rolfson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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Tide / Current Tables for Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut
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Coral Harbour
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Tue -- 02:08 AM EST     1.37 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:36 AM EST     2.87 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:33 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 02:59 PM EST     1.39 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 09:00 PM EST     2.80 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.41.41.61.92.32.62.82.92.72.421.71.51.41.51.722.42.72.82.72.5

Tide / Current Tables for Coral Harbour, Southampton Island, Nunavut (2)
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Coral Harbour
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Tue -- 02:26 AM EST     1.29 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:34 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:12 AM EST     2.89 meters High Tide
Tue -- 10:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:33 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 03:00 PM EST     1.17 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 08:38 PM EST     2.64 meters High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.51.31.31.622.42.72.92.82.62.31.91.61.31.21.31.622.32.62.62.52.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Marquette, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Marquette, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.