Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 10:19 PM Moonrise 4:08 AM   Moonset 6:08 PM

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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 051227 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 427 AM AKDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
A series of upper level disturbances moving across the mainland over the next several days will support rain and snow showers south of the Brooks Range and snow north of the Brooks Range.
Strong northeast winds persist through Monday from Cape Lisburne through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a longwave trough extends south from the far northern Canadian Archipelago across much of mainland Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska, with several closed lows in the flow. The northernmost low is centered 125 NM northeast of Utqiagvik, the second low is southeast of Kodiak, and the third is over the southern Kamchatka Peninsula. Meanwhile, weak ridging remains over the eastern Interior and eastern Siberia. The northernmost low slides westward today becoming more elongated with a piece of energy breaking off and developing into a new low over the Seward Peninsula this afternoon and evening. As this new low pushes south and west through the Bering Strait to the central Bering Sea by Tuesday afternoon, the low that was southeast of Kodiak lifts northeast and weakens as it moves onshore near Yakutat by Tuesday morning, continuing north across the Upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country and AlCan border Tuesday evening through Wednesday. The low over western Kamchatka moves southeast of the Aleutians into the northern Pacific.

At the surface, a 1027 mb high centered 275 NM northwest of Utqiagvik slowly weakens through Tuesday as it moves to be centered 200 NM north of Utqiagvik by Tuesday morning. A 990 mb low near Kodiak weakens as it moves east into the central Gulf of Alaska by Sunday afternoon. A weak 1012 mb low southeast of the Gulf of Anadyr Monday afternoon deepens to 1008 mb as it moves southeast to the Pribilofs by Tuesday afternoon. Weak troughing will persist north of the Alaska Range.

Models...
The 05/00Z models initialized fair against the 00Z RAOBS and are in agreement with the overall synoptic pattern. Differences in the details aloft emerge quickly with the closed upper level low that develops and moves southwest across the Bering Strait. By Monday afternoon the 00Z ECMWF is the outlier as it is the farthest north (still north of the Bering Strait) and the deepest (509 dam), while the NAM, GFS, and Canadian are clustered near St Lawrence Island and similar in strength of around 518 dam. By Tuesday afternoon, the ECMWF catches up with the other models and has the low located near St Matthew Island, but remains the deepest the solution. At the surface, models initialized well against the 00Z and 06Z surface observations. The largest difference between model solutions becomes evident by Monday morning with the placement of the high over the Arctic Ocean. The ECMWF is the furthest north with the high with the GFS the furthest south and the NAM and the Canadian in between, but the models concur on the strength. Adjusted winds up by a couple of knots across the Interior for this afternoon and evening to account for a tighter gradient and bumped up winds slightly in the Alaska Range passes Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, went with a general model blend for this forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
A series of upper level disturbances will support periods of snow across the North Slope and Brooks Range through mid week. Snow amounts will be light. Over the northwest Arctic Coast northeast winds of 30 to 40 mph will persist through Monday from Point Lay west, with lighter winds anticipated Tuesday. Elsewhere along the coast northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected through Monday, diminishing Monday night. Temperatures trend upwards.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Troughing aloft remains the dominant influence. This will support isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through mid-week as pieces of energy rotate through the flow. Across the Interior, much of the precip will be in the form of rain, while across the northwestern Interior and along the coast, precip will likely be snow north and a rain snow mix south. Snow accumulations of less than an inch. A strong pressure gradient persists from Point Hope through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island today, supporting northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph. Further south, northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph expected along the coast. Visibility reductions in blowing snow were very limited yesterday and expect that to continue today, given the crust on the snowpack. Slightly cooler temperatures expected today, primarily along the coast.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Fairly quiet conditions expected across the Central and Eastern Interior today, with a few showers not out of the question. North to northeast winds increase into the 10 to 20 mph range this afternoon and evening, with the strongest winds occurring in the White Mountains and Interior summits; across the Tanana Flats to Delta Junction winds will be more northwesterly. An upper level disturbance pushing northwest out of the Yukon this evening and Monday will bring another round of showers across the Interior, with snow and rain-snow showers possible during the early morning hours Monday. Snow accumulations will be light. Another piece of energy will lift northwest out of the Yukon on Tuesday. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Monday afternoon, continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures cool today and Monday before warming again Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Upper level troughing over the Bering Sea remains the dominant player through the end of the work week, while ridging builds north into British Columbia. This set up supports scattered showers across northern Alaska. Temperatures slowly trend upwards for the latter half of the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
A series of upper level disturbances will lift northwest across the Interior through mid week supporting isolated to scattered showers each day. Temperatures trend downwards today and Monday before warming up again Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity values largely remain above 25 percent through Tuesday. North to northeast winds increase into the 10 to 20 mph range this afternoon from the Yukon Flats south to the White Mountains, Fortymile Country and Middle Tanana Valley, with the strongest winds occurring in the White Mountains and Interior summits. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Monday afternoon continuing into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
The Yukon River broke up at Eagle Friday afternoon. As of late Saturday afternoon, ice is jammed roughly 28 to 30 miles upstream from Circle. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front, and should arrive near Circle early this morning if the breakup front does not stall. Small ice jams may be possible as the breakup front moves downstream leading to minor or moderate flooding.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
Flood Watch for AKZ840-844.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801>803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804-850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805-806-810-811-816-851.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-811-854-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-853-858.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
Gale Warning for PKZ816.
Gale Warning for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.

Apoon Mouth
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:38 AM AKDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:09 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:18 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:23 AM AKDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:36 PM AKDT     2.13 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:10 PM AKDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:24 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Apoon Mouth, Yukon River, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Pikmiktalik River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:55 AM AKDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:40 AM AKDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:53 PM AKDT     2.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:27 PM AKDT     2.50 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:22 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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