Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michael, AK

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Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 9:43PM Monday August 20, 2018 7:03 AM AKDT (15:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:06PMMoonset 11:43PM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 417 Am Akdt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 417 Am Akdt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michael, AK
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location: 63.62, -162     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 201324
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
524 am akdt Mon aug 20 2018

Discussion
A progressive and somewhat active pattern is expected the area for
the next few days. The main forecast challenges that we are
dealing with on this shift are continued winds in the alaska
range today along with an area of low pressure that will will
bring rainfall along with areas of gusty winds to the interior on
Tuesday. The 06z deterministic models generally initialized well
and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic scale features
out through the middle of the upcoming workweek.

Aloft, at 500 mb, from the panhandle into the southern chukchi
sea. A 555 dam low currently in the north pacific will move to
near king salmon by early Tuesday morning. As the low and
associated trough continue to push to the north on Tuesday it will
push the aforementioned ridge east into the yukon territory. By
late Tuesday evening the low will be located near eagle. Much of
the area will be under the influence of a broad trough Wednesday
into the weekend.

Central and eastern interior: strong gap winds are currently being
observed in the alaska range. Our current expectation is that
winds will die down this morning as the pressure gradient across
the range relaxes. I trimmed back the ongoing wind advisories to
end later this morning. Today is expected to be the warmest day of
the week. A pattern change is expected for Tuesday as an area of
low pressure moves into the interior. Much of the interior will
see rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.0 inches Tuesday morning into
Wednesday afternoon with this system. As the surface low moves to
near eagle Tuesday night we expect south to southwesterly winds to
pick up in the alaska range as well as in the upper tanana
valley. At the same time gusty northerly winds are expected in the
yukon flats. Winds should die down during the day on Wednesday. A
cool showery pattern will persist Wednesday through the end of
the week. Both the ECMWF and the GFS seem to agree in a break in
the showers at some point on Saturday as an upper ridge moves
across; however, they differ some on the timing. Both models bring
a good push of rainfall as southwesterly flow moves in behind the
ridge at some point on Sunday.

West coast and western interior: a front that is currently
stretches from the central brooks range into the yukon delta will
push north today with rainfall expected along the front. South of
the front we expect a few scattered showers today. A system
pushing up from the south on Tuesday will bring rainfall to the
western interior. A showery pattern is expected for Wednesday and
Thursday. A brief break from the precipitation is expected for
Friday with a more significant rainfall expected at some point
late Saturday or Sunday (the GFS is about 12 hours faster with
this than the ECMWF right now).

North slope and brooks range: with high pressure building south
along the beaufort sea coast we expect fog and low ceilings to be
an issue along the coast into Tuesday. A northward moving front
will bring rainfall to the brooks range today before diminishing
tonight. Easterly winds will pick up on Tuesday as the moves to to
the south and low pressure moves into the interior.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather
Today will be the warmest day of the week for the interior with
some locations making it up into the low 70s. Southerly gap winds
are expected to persist in the alaska range this morning before
weakening in the afternoon. A pattern change is expected tomorrow
for the interior. An area of low pressure will move in from the
south bringing cooler temperatures along with widespread wetting
rainfall. Much of the interior will see rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.0 inches Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. Cool and
showery conditions are expected Wednesday through the end of the
week. Another round of wetting rain is expected to push from west
to east across the west coast and the interior next weekend.

Hydrology
Recent rainfall on the north side of the brooks range as brought
high water levels to rivers draining the area. Most of the rivers
on the north slope have either already crested or will crest very
soon. Water levels will continue to decrease through the middle of
the week. Much of the interior will see rainfall amounts of 0.5 to
1.0 inches Tuesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. This will
cause rivers in the interior to begin rising late Tuesday with
some rivers reaching bankfull by Thursday. We will have to
continue to monitor this situation.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory for akz223-akz226.

Small craft advisory for pkz230-pkz235.

Aug 18


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E14
G20
SE17
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SE15SE15SE15S16S15SE14S11S9S5S7S11S5SW11SW9S10S12SW10SW11S8S13
G18
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1 day agoNE15NE13NE13NE13NE11NE12NE9NE9NE8E8E5NE6N6N7NW7N11N10NE7E12E12E12E10SE4SE5
2 days ago--S15S9S9S12SE10S11NW4NW6SW9SW7W6E4E3S4E4E3E4NE5NE8E6E9--E15

Tide / Current Tables for North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska
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North Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:13 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:00 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM AKDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:02 PM AKDT     0.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:07 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:34 PM AKDT     0.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:44 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:45 PM AKDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.81.11.41.82.22.42.52.52.21.81.51.10.80.60.50.50.50.60.60.60.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska
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Pikmiktalik River entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:17 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:24 AM AKDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 02:29 PM AKDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:57 PM AKDT     1.26 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:03 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:00 PM AKDT     1.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:42 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.82.32.83.43.94.14.13.83.32.72.21.71.41.2111.11.21.31.21.11.11.11.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.