Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Michael, AK
May 7, 2024 8:10 AM AKDT (16:10 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:27 AM Sunset 10:24 PM Moonrise 3:43 AM Moonset 10:12 PM |
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight - N winds 20 kt.
Thu - N winds 10 kt.
Thu night - N winds 10 kt.
Fri - N winds 5 kt.
Fri night - N winds 10 kt.
Sat - N winds 15 kt.
Sun - N winds 20 kt.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight - N winds 20 kt.
Thu - N winds 10 kt.
Thu night - N winds 10 kt.
Fri - N winds 5 kt.
Fri night - N winds 10 kt.
Sat - N winds 15 kt.
Sun - N winds 20 kt.
FXAK69 PAFG 071220 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 420 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled conditions continue across much of northern Alaska the next several days as a series of disturbances push across the state. These disturbances will bring a mix of rain and snow.
Highest snow accumulations expected in the Brooks Range and in the Fortymile Country where 2 to 4 inches are possible. Temperatures trend upwards the next several days. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle.
DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a longwave trough extends south from the pole across much of mainland Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska. A weakening upper level low in the northern Gulf of Alaska moves onshore this morning between Homer and Yakutat, lifting north northwest along the AlCan border to be between Eagle and Fort Yukon by early Wednesday morning. Another piece of energy rounding the base of the trough today moves across the northern Gulf of Alaska tonight, joining the first shortwave Wednesday morning. The shortwave continues northwest across the Interior Wednesday to be over the Western Brooks Range by Thursday morning and the northwest Arctic coast by Friday morning. As this wave moves north, ridging over the Yukon and Northwest Territories gets shunted north over the Arctic waters. Further west, a closed upper level low north of St Lawrence Island this morning dives south to be between St Matthew Island and the Pribilofs by Wednesday morning and the Alaska Peninsula by Thursday morning. This low weakens Thursday into an open wave that lifts northeast along the northern Gulf of Alaska coast through Thursday night and then pushes north across the Interior Friday
At the surface, a 1026 mb high centered 500 NM north of Prudhoe Bay moves northeast to be 250 NM northwest of Banks Island by this afternoon, continuing northeast into the high Arctic through Thursday. A 1000 mb low near Dawson City weakens as it moves northwest to be near Venetie this afternoon with a trough extending southwest to Galena to Crooked Creek. By Wednesday morning troughing extends from a 1002 mb low near Inuvik southwest to Manley Hot Springs to Aniak. The low near Inuvik lifts north to be east of Liverpool Bay Northwest Territories by Wednesday afternoon with troughing extending southwest to Eagle to Ruby to Scammon Bay. By Thursday morning troughing extends from a 1008 mb low near Kotzebue Sound southwest to offshore the Y-K Delta coast and from the low east to Fairbanks. By Friday the low near Kotzebue Sound has moved little with troughing extending east to Bettles to a 1006 mb low near Dawson City. A weak trough near the Gulf of Anadyr this morning moves south today developing into a 1005 mb low 150 NM southwest of St Matthew Island moving across the Pribilofs Wednesday morning and to the Alaska Peninsula by Thursday morning.
Models... The 07/00Z models initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern.
After the past few nights, models are in good agreement with the strength and track of the upper level low moving south across the Bering Sea, additionally models are in much better agreement with the shortwave moving across the Interior Wednesday and Thursday and the shortwave/low that moves north across the Yukon and Northwest Territories. At the surface there are some differences, most notably in the westward extent of precipitation today over the Eastern Interior. The ECMWF and the NAM to an extent bring the precip furthest west, while the GFS and hi-res solutions keep the precip further east over the Fortymile Country to the Brooks Range. Leaned towards the GFS and hi-res solutions to keep the highest pops further east and then blended in low end chance pops further west towards the Middle Tanana Valley to account for uncertainty.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog and stratus persist along the Arctic coast this morning. The gradient off the northwest Arctic has relaxed today with lighter winds prevailing. East to northeast winds of less than 15 mph are expected through Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph develop in the eastern Brooks Range. Gradient tightens over the northwest Arctic coast late Wednesday into Thursday with a low near Kotzebue Sound, resulting in northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. A series of disturbances moving across the Brooks Range through Friday continue snow changes. Highest snowfall amounts expected in the eastern Brooks Range. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected today and tonight with an additional 2 to 4 inches expected Wednesday through Thursday night. Along the coast, snow accumulation will be lighter at 1 to 2 inches from today through Thursday night.
Temperatures trend upwards the next few days with highs for most areas in the 20s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
The gradient off the northwest Arctic has relaxed today with northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph prevailing from Point Hope through the Bering Strait to near St Lawrence Island. Expect winds in the 15 to 25 mph range in this area Wednesday and Thursday.
Elsewhere, winds will be less than 15 mph. General troughing aloft and energy moving through the trough will continue to support rain and snow showers through the week. The best precip chances today and Wednesday will be south of Galena and in the Brooks Range, where up to 2 inches of snow accumulation is possible.
Today trend upwards beginning today.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Precip chances continue today as another disturbance moves across the Interior, bringing more snow, rain, and a rain-snow mix. The best precip chances will be across the Eastern Interior, in particular the Fortymile Country north to the Brooks Range. This will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to higher elevations an along the Steese Highway north of Fairbanks. For valley locations including Fairbanks mostly rain is expected but there could be a change over to snow Tuesday evening. Weak southerly gap flow is ongoing in the Alaska Range passes and is expected to continue through the work week, increasing Wednesday night and Thursday, especially over the eastern Alaska Range, where a Wind Advisory may be needed Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures begin to trend upwards today.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate persistent broad upper level troughing over much of mainland Alaska, the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska through the extended forecast. Guidance also suggests periodic upper ridging in Canada pushing into the Eastern Interior. This pattern supports scattered shower activity across northern Alaska and energy moves through the trough. Temperatures across the central and eastern Interior will largely be influenced on how far east the trough axis moves and the southerly flow.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
FIRE WEATHER
A series of upper level disturbances will lift northwest across the Interior through the end of the work supporting showers each day. Warming trend ensues today. Minimum relative humidity values largely remain above 25 percent today. Slightly lower minimum relative humidity values expected Wednesday afternoon from the Middle Tanana Valley east to the Alcan border. Winds generally less than 15 mph. Weak southerly gap flow in the Alaska Range passes continues through the week, increasing Wednesday night, especially over the eastern Alaska Range. At this time it looks like the strongest winds will be late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time.
HYDROLOGY
As of late Monday, not much change has been reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding has been reported yet.
However as the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding. A large run of ice passed by Eagle Monday with a sharp rise in water levels indicated at the river gage and through social media posts. This high water and heavy ice run is expected to make it down to the ice jam above Circle this morning.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-806-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811-817-854-856>858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 420 AM AKDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Unsettled conditions continue across much of northern Alaska the next several days as a series of disturbances push across the state. These disturbances will bring a mix of rain and snow.
Highest snow accumulations expected in the Brooks Range and in the Fortymile Country where 2 to 4 inches are possible. Temperatures trend upwards the next several days. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle.
DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a longwave trough extends south from the pole across much of mainland Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska. A weakening upper level low in the northern Gulf of Alaska moves onshore this morning between Homer and Yakutat, lifting north northwest along the AlCan border to be between Eagle and Fort Yukon by early Wednesday morning. Another piece of energy rounding the base of the trough today moves across the northern Gulf of Alaska tonight, joining the first shortwave Wednesday morning. The shortwave continues northwest across the Interior Wednesday to be over the Western Brooks Range by Thursday morning and the northwest Arctic coast by Friday morning. As this wave moves north, ridging over the Yukon and Northwest Territories gets shunted north over the Arctic waters. Further west, a closed upper level low north of St Lawrence Island this morning dives south to be between St Matthew Island and the Pribilofs by Wednesday morning and the Alaska Peninsula by Thursday morning. This low weakens Thursday into an open wave that lifts northeast along the northern Gulf of Alaska coast through Thursday night and then pushes north across the Interior Friday
At the surface, a 1026 mb high centered 500 NM north of Prudhoe Bay moves northeast to be 250 NM northwest of Banks Island by this afternoon, continuing northeast into the high Arctic through Thursday. A 1000 mb low near Dawson City weakens as it moves northwest to be near Venetie this afternoon with a trough extending southwest to Galena to Crooked Creek. By Wednesday morning troughing extends from a 1002 mb low near Inuvik southwest to Manley Hot Springs to Aniak. The low near Inuvik lifts north to be east of Liverpool Bay Northwest Territories by Wednesday afternoon with troughing extending southwest to Eagle to Ruby to Scammon Bay. By Thursday morning troughing extends from a 1008 mb low near Kotzebue Sound southwest to offshore the Y-K Delta coast and from the low east to Fairbanks. By Friday the low near Kotzebue Sound has moved little with troughing extending east to Bettles to a 1006 mb low near Dawson City. A weak trough near the Gulf of Anadyr this morning moves south today developing into a 1005 mb low 150 NM southwest of St Matthew Island moving across the Pribilofs Wednesday morning and to the Alaska Peninsula by Thursday morning.
Models... The 07/00Z models initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern.
After the past few nights, models are in good agreement with the strength and track of the upper level low moving south across the Bering Sea, additionally models are in much better agreement with the shortwave moving across the Interior Wednesday and Thursday and the shortwave/low that moves north across the Yukon and Northwest Territories. At the surface there are some differences, most notably in the westward extent of precipitation today over the Eastern Interior. The ECMWF and the NAM to an extent bring the precip furthest west, while the GFS and hi-res solutions keep the precip further east over the Fortymile Country to the Brooks Range. Leaned towards the GFS and hi-res solutions to keep the highest pops further east and then blended in low end chance pops further west towards the Middle Tanana Valley to account for uncertainty.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog and stratus persist along the Arctic coast this morning. The gradient off the northwest Arctic has relaxed today with lighter winds prevailing. East to northeast winds of less than 15 mph are expected through Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday southerly winds of 10 to 20 mph develop in the eastern Brooks Range. Gradient tightens over the northwest Arctic coast late Wednesday into Thursday with a low near Kotzebue Sound, resulting in northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. A series of disturbances moving across the Brooks Range through Friday continue snow changes. Highest snowfall amounts expected in the eastern Brooks Range. 1 to 2 inches of snow expected today and tonight with an additional 2 to 4 inches expected Wednesday through Thursday night. Along the coast, snow accumulation will be lighter at 1 to 2 inches from today through Thursday night.
Temperatures trend upwards the next few days with highs for most areas in the 20s.
West Coast and Western Interior...
The gradient off the northwest Arctic has relaxed today with northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph prevailing from Point Hope through the Bering Strait to near St Lawrence Island. Expect winds in the 15 to 25 mph range in this area Wednesday and Thursday.
Elsewhere, winds will be less than 15 mph. General troughing aloft and energy moving through the trough will continue to support rain and snow showers through the week. The best precip chances today and Wednesday will be south of Galena and in the Brooks Range, where up to 2 inches of snow accumulation is possible.
Today trend upwards beginning today.
Central and Eastern Interior...
Precip chances continue today as another disturbance moves across the Interior, bringing more snow, rain, and a rain-snow mix. The best precip chances will be across the Eastern Interior, in particular the Fortymile Country north to the Brooks Range. This will bring 2 to 4 inches of snow to higher elevations an along the Steese Highway north of Fairbanks. For valley locations including Fairbanks mostly rain is expected but there could be a change over to snow Tuesday evening. Weak southerly gap flow is ongoing in the Alaska Range passes and is expected to continue through the work week, increasing Wednesday night and Thursday, especially over the eastern Alaska Range, where a Wind Advisory may be needed Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Temperatures begin to trend upwards today.
Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to indicate persistent broad upper level troughing over much of mainland Alaska, the Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska through the extended forecast. Guidance also suggests periodic upper ridging in Canada pushing into the Eastern Interior. This pattern supports scattered shower activity across northern Alaska and energy moves through the trough. Temperatures across the central and eastern Interior will largely be influenced on how far east the trough axis moves and the southerly flow.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
FIRE WEATHER
A series of upper level disturbances will lift northwest across the Interior through the end of the work supporting showers each day. Warming trend ensues today. Minimum relative humidity values largely remain above 25 percent today. Slightly lower minimum relative humidity values expected Wednesday afternoon from the Middle Tanana Valley east to the Alcan border. Winds generally less than 15 mph. Weak southerly gap flow in the Alaska Range passes continues through the week, increasing Wednesday night, especially over the eastern Alaska Range. At this time it looks like the strongest winds will be late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning, so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time.
HYDROLOGY
As of late Monday, not much change has been reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding has been reported yet.
However as the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding. A large run of ice passed by Eagle Monday with a sharp rise in water levels indicated at the river gage and through social media posts. This high water and heavy ice run is expected to make it down to the ice jam above Circle this morning.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-806-850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ804.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806-810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811-817-854-856>858.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810-816.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| PAMK ST MICHAEL,AK | 11 sm | 14 min | NNE 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 25°F | 19°F | 80% | 29.65 |
St. Michael
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:17 AM AKDT 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM AKDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:28 AM AKDT 3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM AKDT 0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:28 PM AKDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:29 PM AKDT 1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:17 AM AKDT 0.94 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:44 AM AKDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:28 AM AKDT 3.96 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM AKDT 0.67 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:28 PM AKDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:29 PM AKDT 1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Michael, Alaska, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.6 |
| 8 am |
| 3.2 |
| 9 am |
| 3.7 |
| 10 am |
| 3.9 |
| 11 am |
| 3.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
North Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:55 AM AKDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM AKDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM AKDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM AKDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:07 PM AKDT 0.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:31 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:55 AM AKDT 0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM AKDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM AKDT 2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM AKDT 0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT New Moon
Tue -- 11:07 PM AKDT 0.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:31 PM AKDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.3 |
| 6 am |
| 1.6 |
| 7 am |
| 2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.4 |
| 9 am |
| 2.7 |
| 10 am |
| 2.8 |
| 11 am |
| 2.8 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
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