Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Michael, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 4:44AMSunset 11:08PM Saturday May 25, 2019 3:06 AM AKDT (11:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 10:05AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 409 Pm Akdt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..W winds 10 kt becoming n. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sun night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 409 Pm Akdt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..W winds 10 kt becoming n. Seas 2 ft. Fog.
Sat..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sun..E winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Sun night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
Mon night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Michael, AK
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location: 63.62, -162     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 250034
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
434 pm akdt Fri may 24 2019
highlights
flooding along the koyukuk river through this weekend.

Hot and dry for the interior over the weekend.

Red flag conditions possible near delta junction Sat afternoon
through sun, and possibly into mon.

Cooler over the north slope today and tonight, with a return to
warmer than normal by sun.

Synopsis
Aloft... .

A long wave ridge over the north pacific and mainland ak will
break down next week. The long wave trough now over the eastern
bering sea and north central pacific will deepen and broaden
through Sat as a series of cold troughs move into the west side of
the long wave trough. Short waves moving out of this long wave
trough will move north over northern ak through the weekend,
causing the long wave trough to expand east and cause the ridge to
break down next week. This will keep northern ak warmer than
normal through the weekend, then showery and near normal next
week.

A weak short wave near livengood will weaken this evening. This
is causing wetting rain north of fairbanks today.

A strong short wave from utqiagvik north will move to east across
the north slope tonight. This is pushing a surface low and cold
front east as well tonight.

South flow aloft will increase Sat night and Sun across northern
ak, and persist into mon. This will cause chinook winds to develop
over the alaska range Sat night and sun, and persist into mon.

Surface...

a 1010 mb low 100 nm north of point barrow will move to 300 nm
north of demarcation point as a 1003 mb low by by 4am sat, and to
near banks island Sat night. A cold front from this low to just
east of barrow to CAPE lisburne will move to inuvik to cape
lisburne by 4am Sat and then weaken. Rain showers east of the
front will change to snow west of the front, with a chance of
freezing rain just behind the front. West winds 25g35kt along the
front will spread east to barter island to Sat morning. Winds will
decrease about 6 hrs after the front passes.

A thermal low pressure trough stretching from arctic village to northway
will move along the alcan border early Sat and then weaken. Scattered
thunderstorms will occur this evening northeast of this trough,
with isolated showers along the trough, and decreasing clouds to
the west of the trough.

A second thermal trough will develop just north of the alaska range sat
afternoon, strengthen on Saturday night, and move to northway to
bettles by 4pm sun, and to northway to arctic village by 4pm mon.

Weak chinook winds will develop over the alaska range Sat evening,
then strengthen Sat night and persist into Sunday, and possibly into Monday.

This will cause much warmer and drier conditions Sat and sun, and
possibly into Monday. Rh will drop to 18-30 percent,
and highs in the 70s and lowers 80s Sat and sun, and possibly
mon. Warmest and driest conditions will be east of fairbanks.

Winds will develop through alaska range passes Sat afternoon evening.

This is expected to cause red flag conditions near delta junction
in zones 223 and 226 starting 2pm Sat and continuing through 10 mph sun,
and could possibly last into mon.

Strong winds near healy will occur Sat pm through Sun as well, but
conditions are not expected to be as dry there.

A weather front over the alaska peninsula will move over the
southeast bering sea by 4pm sat, to the bering strait by 4pm sun,
and into the southern chukchi sea on mon. This will bring rain and
north along the west coast of alaska Sat through sun. Winds will
become east 15-25kt ahead of the front Sat through sun, and will
turn south 20 kt behind the front Sun and Sun night.

A wave along this front will move north over the west coast and western
interior Sun night and Mon bringing significant rain to most of
these areas Sun night and mon.

Discussion
Models all initialize 10-15m too weak on the h500 heights over
the eastern interior as shown by the raobs at fairbanks and
yakutat. The models h500 fields are similar through 4pm sat, then
the GFS and canadian models maintain the h500 ridge heights more
than the ecmf and NAM through mon, and even into the middle of
next week. Given that the models were all too weak initializing
the h500 ridge, prefer the GFS solution which maintain the ridge
longer than the other models. Other models fields aloft follow
suit, with stronger downslope winds winds and warmer temperatures
over the eastern interior Sat night through Mon in the GFS as
compared to the ecmf and nam. These all follow from the h500
pattern.

At the surface at 15z, all modes 4-5 mb too weak on verification
of the surface low northwest of barrow. Otherwise models
initialize well on other features. With this in mind expect
surface low near barrow to be stronger than models indicate today
and tonight. To reflect this, will add 3-5 kt of winds to what
models indicate along the arctic coast through tonight.

Bottom line is we prefer the GFS solution through mon, but will
bump up winds speeds along the arctic coast through tonight.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather
Hot and dry over the eastern interior for sat, Sun and mon, with
highs in the 70s and lower 80s, and min rh 18-28%. Near red flag
conditions expected in zones 223 and 226 near delta junction sat
pm through Sun pm for hot and dry conditions along with moderate
winds. Will issue red flag watch for those areas for 4pm sat
through 10pm sun, and could possible extend into mon.

Hydrology
High water on rivers draining the south side of the brooks range
will continue through next week. The flooding at allakaket is
forecast to crest on sat, about 1 ft higher than now, then fall
very slowly. At hughes, the flooding is expected to crest sun, 1-2
ft higher than now, then fall slowly. At huslia wast will rise
slowly for the next week, then fall very slowly, making at least
10 more days of bank erosion likely there.

On the north side of the brooks range, cooling temps today and sat
will slow the melt and runoff for Sat and sun, but a return to
high freezing levels Sat night into next week will see rising
rivers next week.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Fire weather watch for akz223-akz226.

Small craft advisory for pkz235-pkz245.

Brisk wind advisory for pkz240.

Flood warning zone 219 at allakaket
flood adivisory zone 219 downstream of allakaket to hughes.

Jb may 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Michael, AK11 mi70 minENE 510.00 miOvercast35°F34°F96%1021 hPa

Wind History from AMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10W10W9W10W8W9SW8W10W8NW7W9NW7W5W9W7N9NE8NE4N4NE5NE4NE4E5NE5
1 day agoNW8NW10N10N10N9NW7N4NW8NW4W5W7W9W11W11W14W14SW11SW11W13W10W13SW10W11W14
2 days agoSW9SW9SW7SW6SW4CalmN7N8N8N9N10N12N13N12N12NW13NW13NW14NW13NW13NW9S3S4NW7

Tide / Current Tables for St. Michael, Alaska
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St. Michael
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Sat -- 12:17 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 04:48 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:07 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:54 PM AKDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-00.30.71.11.41.71.92.12.42.73.13.53.8443.93.52.92.21.40.80.30

Tide / Current Tables for North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska
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North Bay
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Sat -- 12:21 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 04:51 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:11 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:08 PM AKDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:32 PM AKDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:43 PM AKDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.10.30.60.91.11.31.41.61.82.12.32.62.82.92.92.72.41.91.40.90.40.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Bethel, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.