Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stebbins, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:45AMSunset 6:44PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 11:40 AM AKDT (19:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 10:06PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 413 Am Akdt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late this morning...
Today..NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding.
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 413 Am Akdt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late this morning...
Today..NE winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding.
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu..N winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stebbins, AK
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location: 63.62, -162.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 161357
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
557 am akdt Tue oct 16 2018

Discussion
Synopsis...

unsettled weather will continue across most of
northern alaska over the next few days. Above-average
temperatures, and a wide variety of wintery precipitation will be
the main headline for the central and easter interior. Farther
north, heavy snow is expected in the brooks range and along the
eastern arctic coast. Rain showers will continue along much of the
bering coast and lower yukon valley, with snow expected for
higher elevations of the western interior.

Aloft 500 mb...

a 520 dam low situated over bristol bay continues
to direct a series of shortwaves north through the gulf of alaska
and into the interior. These waves will continue to propagate
north and westward, engulfing much of the state well into the
arctic by late Tuesday. A sharp ridge axis emanating from a 584
dam high off the washington coast extends northward through
western canada into the brooks range. The placement of this
feature is helping to accelerate southerly winds across the state,
causing the strong chinook pattern currently in place. The ridge
axis will track slowly eastward over the next few days, loosening
the pressure gradient and shifting mid level flow southwesterly.

The closed low over bristol bay will gradually merge with a deep
longwave trough extending south through the chukchi sea while
remaining mainly stationary. By early next week, the general
consensus seems to indicate a broad trough beginning to open up
across the state into western canada. Models show some semblance
of agreement of this long term trend, but significant differences
in placement of individual systems make this a very broad
conjecture at best.

North slope and brooks range...

a front moving north across the interior will reach the brooks
range this morning. Snow amounts of around 5 to 8 inches are
expected across the central and eastern brooks range through
Wednesday, with localized totals up to 12 inches across south
facing slopes. Snow will begin to spread to the north slope this
afternoon, with the highest totals of up to 6 inches occurring
east of prudhoe bay through Wednesday. Stationary high pressure
approximately 500 nm north of demarcation point will force the
pressure gradient to tighten as the front advances north, resulting
in east winds on the order of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

The strongest winds will be felt along the eastern arctic coast
this evening through early Wednesday. Blowing snow is likely to
become a concern as peak winds coincide with heavy snowfall,
reducing visibility to one half mile or less. The core of
strongest winds will push offshore throughout the week as the
front lifts north.

West coast and western interior...

a front associated with a low over bristol bay will sweep
northwest through the afternoon to reach the chukchi coast early
Wednesday. A showery pattern is expected for much of the coast
and lower yukon and koyukuk valleys. Some freezing rain is
possible this morning in areas of the western interior east of
kaltag and north of mcgrath, where temperatures will flirt with
freezing. Snow showers can be expected across higher elevations
of the seward peninsula to the southwestern brooks range,
particularly along south facing slopes. A tight pressure gradient
will exist from the chukchi sea, through the bering strait, and
across the central bering sea. Strong northeast winds are expected
to persist through Thursday as the synoptic pattern remains
relatively unchanged.

Central and eastern interior...

a strong front containing ample moisture and warm air will
continue to sweep north throughout the day, reaching the brooks
range by late this morning. Much of the lower tanana valley from
delta junction west will see a mainly rain event, thanks to very
warm surface temperatures brought on by the strong chinook across
the alaska range. The upper tanana valley from dot lake east will
see sub freezing temperatures as the chinook remains weak in this
area. Any precipitation which does fall will likely be in the
form of freezing rain or sleet due to the presence of very warm
temperatures aloft. Farther north, a wintery mix of snow sleet,
and freezing rain is likely for areas north of fox to chena hot
springs, and the yukon flats. Additionally, strong gap flow
across the alaska range and through isabel and windy passes will
peak early this morning, and remain strong well into the evening.

Winds may top 70 mph this morning through isabel pass as
generally stronger winds are expected across this portion of the
alaska range. Southerly flow will continue behind the front as it
tracks northward, though a gradually weakening chinook should
keep the region fairly dry through the end of the week.

Models...

good initializations at 16 00z and no major deviations noted
against the 16 12z analysis. Models hold solid agreement through
Thursday, with reasonable synoptic agreement into the weekend.

Individual shortwave features become hard to follow but a general
trend towards a deep, wide troughing pattern encompassing much of
the state seems reasonable into early next week as the canadian
ridge erodes and moves east. Perhaps the arrival of winter?
coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory for akz223-akz225.

High wind warning for akz226.

Winter storm warning for akz206-akz218-akz219.

Winter weather advisory for akz202-akz203-akz204-akz216-akz217-
akz220-akz221-akz222.

Small craft advisory for pkz200-pkz215.

Gale warning for pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-pkz240-
pkz245.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz240-pkz245.

Cowman oct 18


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Michael, AK23 mi45 minE 1110.00 mi41°F37°F89%989.5 hPa

Wind History from AMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE18
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NE17NE15NE19NE18
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1 day agoE12E12--E13E14E13E12E12E14E14E15SE8E7E12E11E7E11E15
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G25
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2 days agoE8SE4--SE13SE13SE12SE10E11E10SE9E6E6E7SE6SE7SE7--SE5SE8SE9SE5E9SE8E5

Tide / Current Tables for North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska
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North Bay
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Tue -- 03:10 AM AKDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:42 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 11:58 AM AKDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:27 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.72.82.82.52.11.61.10.70.40.30.20.30.40.60.911.11.21.21.41.61.8

Tide / Current Tables for Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska
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Pikmiktalik River entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:30 AM AKDT     4.23 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:02 AM AKDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 11:18 AM AKDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.644.24.23.93.42.71.91.30.80.40.30.30.50.81.21.51.61.71.822.32.63

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.