Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stebbins, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:47AMSunset 4:32PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 4:31 PM AKST (01:31 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 5:07PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 200 Pm Akst Wed Jan 17 2018
Tonight..NW winds 20 kt.
Thu..N winds 20 kt.
Thu night..N winds 20 kt.
Fri..N winds 15 kt.
Fri night..N winds 15 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sat night..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 15 kt.
Mon..N winds 15 kt.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 200 Pm Akst Wed Jan 17 2018
Tonight..NW winds 20 kt.
Thu..N winds 20 kt.
Thu night..N winds 20 kt.
Fri..N winds 15 kt.
Fri night..N winds 15 kt.
Sat..N winds 15 kt.
Sat night..N winds 15 kt.
Sun..N winds 15 kt.
Mon..N winds 15 kt.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stebbins, AK
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location: 63.62, -162.5     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 172240
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
140 pm akst Wed jan 17 2018

Discussion
Models... Big picture solutions yesterday handled things quite
well. Digging down to the details they were not bad, but also not
real good. Solutions today have good run to run continuity and are
in quite good agreement. Surface analysis at 17 18z matched up
well against the 12z solutions. Will be using a blend for the
short term surface winds, and lean toward the SREF solution for
precipitation probability.

Aloft... At 500 hpa... Flow aloft has weakened, but remains mainly
from the south. Low that developed over fairbanks last night has
moved over the central brooks range at 519 dam. Weak ridge has
developed over the interior with the low that moved over kodiak
island last night weakening to 520 dam. The low over the brooks
range will move northwest over point lay by Thursday morning at
516 dam, then merge into a trough over wrangel island that is
associated with a 498 dam low to the west of wrangel island. A
weak trough will remain over the west coast Thursday, then move
over the western interior as a 535 dam high builds over the
northern bering sea. The low over kodiak will slowly move north
to be over anchorage by Friday morning at 519 dam. Ridging will
persist to the east of the area, but a 520 dam low will develop
and move northeast across the yukon territory tonight, then move
move north of the northwest territories. By Saturday morning
longwave trough will develop over the state with a 502 dam low 250
nm north of point lay with troughing extending south over kodiak
island, a 543 dam high over the north central bering sea, and
ridging over british columbia that extends north to a 530 dam high
over the eastern beaufort sea. At 850 hpa... A few patches of
temperatures around zero this afternoon, but cooling trend has
started and temperatures across the forecast area will range
from -2c to -15c by Thursday morning. The -10c isotherm will push
east to lie from point barrow to arctic village to tanana to
bethel by Thursday afternoon, and by Friday afternoon the whole
forecast area will be below -10c. The -20c will push east over the
arctic plains and coast Friday and Saturday.

Surface... Broad area of low pressure over mainland alaska. A 993
mb low has moved over allakaket with a 993 mb low over kotzebue,
a 994 mb low over umiat, and a 987 mb low over kodiak island this
afternoon. The lows in the northern part of the state will combine
with a 995 mb low moving over point lay by Thursday morning,
while the low over kodiak will remain quasi stationary. Weak high
pressure will build over the upper tanana valley tonight with a
1002 mb high over the yukon territory and ridging over chukotka
will build east and merge with ridging over the eastern bering
sea. By Thursday afternoon the troughing over the chukchi sea and
arctic coast will start lifting northeast as high pressure over
the chukotsk peninsula pushes east over the brooks range and
arctic coast as well as the western interior. A 998 mb low that
develop over the middle koyukuk basin will be pushed east as the
ridging builds in and a trough that extends south to the low over
kodiak will move east across the central and eastern interior.

High pressure continues to push east on Friday with the the trough
moving over the southeast interior as the low stalls over the
upper yukon valley. As the high pressure builds east a 1031 mb
high moves to the bering strait and the troughing persists over
the upper yukon valley and flats with a strong pressure gradient
developing across the central and eastern brooks range Thursday
night. A 1024 mb high will develop over the lookout ridge on the
arctic plain Friday enhancing the gradient over the range, and
over the arctic coast as the gradient gets pinched by the low
lifting northeast.

Arctic coast and brooks range... Low moving to the northwest coast
and merging into the troughing over the area. Some light snow
across the area, but mainly west of nuiqsut. 1 to 3 inches of snow
expected west of anaktuvuk pass through Thursday afternoon. High
pressure will be building east across the area Thursday high with
strong winds developing over the chukchi sea and moving northeast
over the northwest coast Thursday and Friday. Winds increasing to
25 to 40 mph and gusty as the strongest winds move across the
area. Strong gusty winds developing in the eastern brooks range as
well with gusts to around 45 mph near the passes and in channeled
areas. Temperatures will be cooling significantly over the next
few days with lows in the -15 to -30 range by Saturday morning
with colder temperatures to start the week.

West coast and western interior... High pressure building across
the area with much colder temperatures moving into the area. Some
clouds lingering around even as the high pressure builds in, and
that may keep a few areas a bit warmer. Temperatures will be
falling to -10 to -30 by Saturday morning. Some snow this evening
and overnight will taper off from the south as the low moves to
the northwest arctic coast. Snowfall amounts in the 2 to 4 inch
range with the heaviest amounts from ambler north.

Central and eastern interior... High pressure building into the
area, but a weak low developing over the yukon flats will drag a
weak trough east across the area that will bring some light snow
to most of the area. Snowfall amounts will generally be pretty
light. Patchy dense fog is a concern with the warmer air over the
cold surfaces, but temperatures will be falling so expect the fog
potential will continue to decrease. Will not be surprised if we
see some 1 2 mile patchy fog overnight. Temperatures will be
falling the remainder of the week with lows -5 to -20 by Saturday
morning, and it still looks like much colder temperatures early
next week. Winds will be light and variable.

Coastal hazards for days 3 and 4... None.

Extended forecast for days 4 to 7... Better run to run agreement
in the solutions the last couple days, so will only be making
minor changes to the extended periods. Colder still looks good,
the question will be how cloudy.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Winter weather advisory for akz216-akz217-akz218-akz219.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz210.

Small craft advisory for pkz210.

Brisk wind advisory for pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-pkz235-
pkz240-pkz245.

Sdb jan 18


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Michael, AK23 mi35 minW 89.00 miLight Snow24°F21°F91%1000 hPa

Wind History from AMK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW6NW5NW6NW9NW7NW7W7NW8W7W8NW8NW9W10W11W8W9W9NW9W10W11W11W7W8
1 day agoS15S12S14S16S11SE11S8SE10N6E3SE8S6N4N6NW3NE9NE6NE3SE4NE3E7NE3E4Calm
2 days agoE21E12E17E15E18E16
G21
SE20
G25
SE14SE18SE20SE17SE19SE15SE16SE14SE19SE13S17S17S10S15S15S16S9

Tide / Current Tables for North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska
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North Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 09:10 AM AKST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:05 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:17 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:55 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:08 PM AKST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.72.41.91.40.90.40-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.722.32.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Pikmiktalik River entrance, Norton Sound, Alaska
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Pikmiktalik River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:32 AM AKST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:02 AM AKST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:15 AM AKST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:59 PM AKST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:11 PM AKST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:30 PM AKST     4.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.42.61.81.10.60.1-0.1-0.10.10.40.711.21.51.82.22.73.13.644.44.64.64.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.