Sunrise 5:30 AM   Sunset 10:21 PM Moonrise 3:47 AM   Moonset 7:59 PM

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PKZ804 Cape Stephens To Moses Point Out To 15 Nm- 344 Am Akdt Mon May 6 2024
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through late this morning - .
Today - NW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft subsiding. Heavy freezing spray. Tonight - NW winds 5 kt. Seas 1 foot. Tue - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. Tue night - NW winds 5 kt. Seas calm. Wed - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wed night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Thu - N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

FXAK69 PAFG 061203 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 403 AM AKDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Shower activity continues through the next several days across northern Alaska as a series of disturbances move across the region. South of the Brooks Range a mix of rain and snow can be expected, while north of the Brooks Range precip will take the form of snow. Strong pressure gradient persists from the northwest Arctic Coast southwest to St Lawrence Island supporting gusty winds today. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Yukon River at Circle.

DISCUSSION
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a longwave trough extends from the far northwestern Canadian Archipelago across mainland Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska. At the base of the trough a closed upper low in the central Gulf of Alaska weakens as it lifts north across the Gulf of Alaska and moves onshore near Yakutat Tuesday morning as an open wave. As this low and subsequent wave lifts north it pushes a ridge axis north across the Yukon and Northwest Territories, as well as the Beaufort Sea. The shortwave continues north across the eastern Interior Tuesday into Wednesday morning and then north across the eastern Brooks Range and to the Arctic Coast by Thursday morning. Further west, another closed upper low over the Seward Peninsula this morning will track southwest through the Bering Strait Monday to be near St Lawrence Island Tuesday morning and the Pribilofs Wednesday morning. North of this low a weaker remnant upper low will track west and south across the Chukchi Sea through Tuesday.

At the surface, a 1026 mb high centered 300 NM north of Utqiagvik moves northeast to be 400 NM north of Kaktovik by Tuesday morning to 150 NM north of Banks Island by Tuesday afternoon. A weak area of low pressure over Mackenzie Bay this afternoon tracks westward along the Beaufort Sea coast with a trough of low pressure developing from this low near to a 1002 mb low in the Northwest Territories. By Wednesday afternoon, the trough lifts northwest off the coast extending from a 1000 mb low over the northern Northwest Territories to a 1006 mb low 25 NM north of Point Thompson. A 990 mb low 50 NM southeast of Mayo this afternoon weakens to 998 mb as it moves to 50 NM south of Eagle by Tuesday morning to near Arctic Village Wednesday morning. A weak trough develops south of the Gulf of Anadyr this afternoon and moves southeast across the Bering Sea through Tuesday with a 1008 mb low developing near the Pribilofs Tuesday afternoon and moving south of Nikolski by Wednesday afternoon.

Models...
The 06/00Z models initialized well against the 00Z RAOBS and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern. Differences in the details emerge by this afternoon with the upper level low and energy from the Chukchi Sea to the Seward Peninsula. Models have struggled with this feature over the last several days as well. They all bring the low south of the Bering Strait, but exact placement and strength have varied from model to model and run to run. Another area that models struggled with aloft is resolving a shortwave trough that pushes north across the eastern Interior, the Yukon, and the Northwest Territories and the resulting upper level low that develops Wednesday into Thursday. There is a wide spread in solutions and placement of the low, varying from the NAM over the Eastern Interior to the ECMWF over the western Northwest Territories to the Canadian which is even further east. This also translates down to the surface lows. Given the model uncertainty and run to run inconsistency, opted to lean towards a consensus blend for winds along the Beaufort Sea coast for the latter half of the forecast period.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph persist west of Point Lay today, elsewhere along the coast northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected. Winds diminish tonight and are expected to remain below 15 mph on Tuesday. Developing trough over the eastern Beaufort on Wednesday shifts winds to the west over the Beaufort Sea coast and increases them to 15 to 20 mph. Snow chances persist through the next several days with overall light accumulations through Tuesday. Higher snow amounts expected Wednesday into Thursday for the eastern Brooks Range where 1 to 4 inches of snow are expected. Temperatures trend upwards, with most locations in the 20s Tuesday and Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Strong pressure gradient persists this morning from Point Hope southwest through the Bering Strait to St Lawrence Island today, supporting northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph. Gradient weakens today and tonight. Troughing aloft and energy moving through the trough will support isolated to scattered rain and snow showers through the week. Today will be the coolest day of the week as temperatures trend upwards beginning Tuesday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Shower chances increase today as an upper level disturbance moves northwest out of the Yukon. Snow showers possible this morning across much of the Interior, becoming a mix of rain-snow and rain showers by this afternoon. Across the south slopes of the Brooks Range and Dalton Highway summits, precip will likely stay snow today. Another round of precip is expected Tuesday as a shortwave moves north across the Eastern Interior bringing rain, snow, and a rain- snow mix, with the best precip chances across the Upper Tanana Valley, Fortymile Country, and southeastern Brooks Range.
Snow accumulations generally less than an inch with up to two inches possible in the White Mountains, south slopes of the Brooks Range, southern Denali Borough, and south of Trims Camp. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes this afternoon, continuing through the week and increasing Wednesday night and Thursday, especially over the eastern Alaska Range, where a Wind Advisory may be needed Thursday. Cooler temperatures expected today with temperatures warming once again Tuesday.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Guidance continues to indicated persistent broad upper level troughing over much of mainland Alaska, Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska, with periodic upper ridging in Canada nudging into the Eastern Interior. This set up supports scattered shower activity across northern Alaska and energy moves through the trough.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
A series of upper level disturbances will lift northwest across the Interior through mid week supporting isolated to scattered showers each day. Temperatures trend downwards today before warming trend ensues Tuesday. Minimum relative humidity values largely remain above 25 percent through Tuesday, except for a few pockets of 20 to 25 percent from Tok to Eagle this afternoon.
Slightly lower minimum relative humidity values expected Wednesday afternoon from the Middle Tanana Valley east to the Alcan border.
Winds generally less than 15 mph. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Monday afternoon continuing through the week and increasing Wednesday night and Thursday, especially over the eastern Alaska Range.

HYDROLOGY
As of mid-day Sunday, not much change has been reported and the Yukon River breakup front is roughly 30 miles upstream of Circle, near Coal Creek. There is a 20 mile run of dense ice above the breakup front. Residents of Circle should be aware that the breakup front is approaching. No overbank flooding has been reported yet. However as the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-802-806-810-816-850-851.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803-804-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ853.
Gale Warning for PKZ856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.

St. Michael
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Mon -- 02:08 AM AKDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:54 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:06 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:59 AM AKDT     3.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:53 PM AKDT     1.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:30 PM AKDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:01 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:25 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Michael, Alaska, Tide feet

North Bay
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Mon -- 01:46 AM AKDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:55 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:07 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM AKDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:31 PM AKDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:08 PM AKDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:04 PM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:28 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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