Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 10:42 PM Moonrise 9:27 AM   Moonset 4:02 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

PKZ805 Moses Point To Sledge Island Out To 15 Nm- 336 Am Akdt Tue May 14 2024
.gale warning in effect from this evening through early Wednesday morning - .
Today - S winds 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Freezing spray. Tonight - SE winds 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - S winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow. Wed night - S winds 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Thu - S winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Thu night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. Fri - W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Sat - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

PKZ800
No data

FXAK69 PAFG 141043 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 243 AM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Numerous showers and isolated storms move to the Eastern Interior today. Any shower or storm can come with briefly heavy rain and some pea sized hail. A strong front will impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Snow mixed with rain from Nome east Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Unsettled weather will continue for the west coast Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Upper Level Analysis...
The 00z models initiated well aloft with a shortwave trough dipping southeast over the Western Interior today. Ridging over the West Coast today will move east as a strong upper low glides into the Central Bering this afternoon bringing a strong front to St. Lawrence Island and the West Coast. Persistent troughing over the North Slope will be booted out by brief ridging moving in from the southwest this afternoon. Subtle troughing over the Interior will traverse east this afternoon with ridging building in behind it.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will begin to impact St. Lawrence Island around 8 to 10 AM with strong southerly winds, snow and blowing snow. It gets into the Bering Strait around 3 to 6 PM and then over to Nome by 7 PM. The strongest winds will begin to move through during the afternoon and evening across the entire Bering Strait Region and continue overnight. Southerly winds could gust up to 45 mph around Nome with gusts near 60 mph for St. Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Winds will begin to subside Wednesday morning from West to East and any snow may begin to mix with rain from Brevig Mission south and east marking an end to any blowing snow concerns in those areas. From St. Lawrence Island to Wales, it may remain all snow as cold air wraps in quickly behind the main front.

North of the Bering Strait, winds will increase this morning with the strongest winds expected this afternoon and evening around Kivalina and Red Dog Mine. Gusts up to 55 mph are possible with snow and blowing snow. The worst conditions in this area may end up being around Red Dog Mine as strong winds and upslope result in heavy snow and blowing snow, though Kivalina will also get strong wind, just not as much snow.

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisory's have been issued for all the locations that will see impactful winter weather conditions.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Numerous showers with isolated storms move over the Eastern Interior today. The greatest risk for thunderstorms will reside from Salcha to just south of Circle and Chalkyitsik south to Northway. Tok and Delta Junction will most likely be spared from thunderstorms but will still have rain showers and downpours around. Any shower or storm will likely come with briefly moderate to heavy rain and erratic wind gusts up to 20-30 mph. Any storm has the potential to come with pea sized hail. These continue through about midnight then diminish in coverage. Wednesday looks to be beautiful with partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures getting into the low to mid 60s. Thursday will come with plenty of sun as well as highs reaching the mid to upper 60s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
This evening, a Bering Sea Low will bring a strong front to the West Coast. Snow is expected to begin in Point Hope around 10 PM with southerly winds increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph.
The snow may mix with rain at times Wednesday afternoon, but the winds will remain strong through Thursday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for blowing snow in Point Hope.
Northeast of Point Hope, there won't be much in the way of snow, but it will be breezy from Deadhorse west to Barrow with peak gusts around 30-35 mph Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning.
Temperatures will be warming up Wednesday and Thursday as well.
Expect high temperatures in the mid 30s along the coast and mid 40s to low 50s in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
Water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal on Thursday will be dropping gradually Friday and back to near normal levels on Saturday.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Models are in slightly better agreement than yesterday for day 4 and beyond but there is still plenty of uncertainty. We will be monitoring a chance for another low to move into the West Coast Friday into Saturday as troughing persists. At this time, this low looks to be much weaker than what we are currently going through.
Expect a few showers and maybe an isolated storm in the Interior on Saturday with cooling temps on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms move to the Eastern Interior today. Any shower or storm has the chance to bring localized wetting rain though most will produce 0.05" or less, unless it is slow moving. Any storm can be accompanied by small hail. No precip expected on Wednesday or Thursday. Highs in the lower 60s on Wednesday with mid to upper 60s on Thursday. Minimum RH's around 25-35% today and will decrease to 20-30% on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds remain relatively light, though any shower or storm may cause some erratic winds with gusts as high as 20-30 mph possible.

HYDROLOGY
A mild breakup on the Yukon River will continue. No impacts have been reported in Tanana, but there has been ice running for the last 24 hours and the water has come up. Ice running past Ruby made its way to Galena today. The water level in Galena rose 2 feet today and has been fluctuating around 114.0 feet since this afternoon. A heavy run of bank-to-bank ice ran through Galena during the afternoon. A large channel formed this afternoon around Bishop Rock and allowed for a heavy run of ice to flow down river.
This run was about 40-45 miles long and extended down river past Koyukuk near Last Chance. Water levels held steady near Koyukuk.
From Last Chance to Nulato, the river was mostly open with some chunk ice but there was a series of jams down river of Nulato with some improvement during the afternoon. Most of the ice has released at the south bank of the Ninemile Island Jam, and the jam at river mile 470 appeared weak and degraded. A small jam near Halfway Island (river mile 460) started to move as well. Water levels in Nulato were slowly rising but we have not heard of, or seen any impacts. At Russian Mission, the river is mostly open upstream but just below, there is a small ice jam. There is some in place ice in Marshall with chunk ice packed in front of Marshall. The main break up front is located 7 miles below Marshall with water levels remaining low. Towards Pilot Station, the river ice was intact but showed signs of movement and the ice below Pilot Station appears stronger and more intact. A resident in Pilot Station reported that the water levels have risen about 5 feet since Sunday.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ827.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ803.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
Gale Warning for PKZ805.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-850-853.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ809.
Gale Warning for PKZ810-811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-854.
Gale Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ852.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ855-858.

Carolyn Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:01 AM AKDT     Sunset
Tue -- 12:59 AM AKDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:33 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:02 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:25 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:22 PM AKDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carolyn Island, Golovnin Bay, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

North Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:41 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:51 AM AKDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:34 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:41 PM AKDT     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:53 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Nome/Fairbanks,AK