Sunrise 5:27 AM   Sunset 10:24 PM Moonrise 3:40 AM   Moonset 10:27 PM

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PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

PKZ200 Norton Sound- 420 Am Akst Wed Mar 8 2023
Today - SW winds 20 kt. Freezing fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Thu - N winds 10 kt. Thu night - N winds 10 kt. Fri - N winds 5 kt. Fri night - N winds 10 kt. Sat - N winds 15 kt. Sun - N winds 20 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 080006 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 406 PM AKDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cool and wet conditions continue today into Wed AM, with drying and warming Wed PM along with southerly Chinook winds gusting to 50 mph along the Alaska Range Wed night into Thu AM. At this time it looks like strong winds will be late Wed night and early Thu AM so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time, but expect near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction to Donnelly Dome early Thu afternoon.

A band of rain and snow (with all snow above 2000 ft and north of the Yukon River) that lies from Delta Junction to Ft Yukon will move the Yukon River Bridge to Atigun Pass Tue night, and over the Northwest Alaska and the Western North Slope on Wed, then remaining over NW AK Wed night and Thu. Expect 1-2 inches of snow above 2000 ft north of Fairbanks and north of the Arctic Circle with this feature tonight into Wed, and could see 2-4 inches in the Brooks Range from Atigun pass West.

A thermal low pressure trough developing over the Tanana Valley Wed will persist into Wed night then move north over the NE Interior on Thu. High pressure building south of the Alaska Range Wed and Wed night will weaken on Thu. These features, combined with southerly Chinook winds wed night, will cause warm, dry and windy conditions over the SE Interior near the Alaska Range Wed night and Thu AM.

A weather front moving NE across the Interior Thu PM and Fri will cause rain and snow over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri as the Chinook winds end.

Cool and showery conditions will remain over most of Northern Alaska through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
Models initialize well at 12Z. The GFS quickly becomes the outlier solution aloft after 00Z today, moving the short wave over the SE Interior to the Northwest more quickly and weaker than the ECWMF, NAM and Canadian models. Prefer a blend of the NAM and ECMWF for features aloft through Fri. Prefer a blend of the NAM and ECMWF for precip as well. At the surface models verify well at 15Z. Will use a blend of the NAM and Canadian for surface features and winds through Fri.

Aloft...
The long wave pattern consists of a deep trough over Western Alaska and the Western Bering Sea and a strong ridge over Western Canada and NE Alaska. This pattern retrogrades over the next through Wed as the long wave trough moves over the Bering and Western AK by Wed and the ridge builds over NE AK. This will cause SE flow with several short waves moving NW across Interior AK.
Each of the short waves will bring several inches of snow or mixed rain and snow to the elevated areas of the Interior and North Slope through Wed, with moderate strength southerly chinook winds developing across the Alaska Range Wed night and continuing into Thu AM. This will cause a drying and warming trend over the SE Interior Wed into Thu.

At the surface...
An Arctic front stretching from Circle to Ambler to King Salmon will move to Old Crow to Kotzebue to King Salmon by 4pm Wed.
The front will then weaken after that.

A thermal low pressure trough developing over the Tanana Valley Wed will persist into Wed night then move north over the NE Interior on Thu. High pressure building south of the Alaska Range Wed and Wed night will weaken on Thu. These features, combined with southerly Chinook winds wed night, will cause warm, dry and windy conditions over the SE Interior near the Alaska Range Wed night and Thu AM.

A weather front moving NE across the Interior Thu PM and Fri will cause rain and snow over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri as the Chinook winds end.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

FIRE WEATHER
Cool and wet conditions continue today into Wed AM, with drying and warming Wed PM along with southerly Chinook winds gusting to 50 mph along the Alaska Range Wed night into Thu AM. At this time it looks like strong winds will be late Wed night and early Thu AM so not anticipating Red Flag conditions at this time, but expect near Red Flag conditions from Delta Junction to Donnelly Dome early Thu afternoon.

A band of rain and snow (with all snow above 2000 ft and north of the Yukon River) that lies from Delta Junction to Ft Yukon will move the Yukon River Bridge to Atigun Pass Tue night, and over the Northwest Alaska and the Western North Slope on Wed, then remaining over NW AK Wed night and Thu. Expect 1-2 inches of snow above 2000 ft and north of the Arctic Circle with feature tonight into Wed and could see 2-4 inches in the Brooks Range from Atigun pass West.

A thermal low pressure trough developing over the Tanana Valley Wed will persist into Wed night then move north over the NE Interior on Thu. High pressure building south of the Alaska Range Wed and Wed night will weaken on Thu. These features, combined with southerly Chinook winds wed night, will cause warm, dry and windy conditions over the SE Interior near the Alaska Range Wed night and Thu AM.

A weather front moving NE across the Interior Thu PM and Fri will cause rain and snow over the SE Interior Thu night and Fri as the Chinook winds end.

HYDROLOGY
As of 2pm Tuesday, ice was moving past Circle and the break up front with high water is upstream but approaching Circle. No overbank flooding has been reported yet. As the breakup front moves downstream, it is likely that small jams may form and release, leading to fluctuating water levels and potential minor or moderate flooding at Circle today into tonight.

The break up front on the Yukon River will approach Ft Yukon on Wed or Thu. Downstream of Ft Yukon most ice remains in place on the Yukon River at this time.

The Tanana and Upper Kuskokwim River are mostly open.

Rivers north of of the Yukon River have mostly intact ice.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801-802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ803.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ810.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.

Carolyn Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:36 AM AKDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:40 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:57 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:47 AM AKDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 08:18 PM AKDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:40 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Carolyn Island, Golovnin Bay, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

North Bay
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:55 AM AKDT     0.68 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:45 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:06 AM AKDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 PM AKDT     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM AKDT     New Moon
Tue -- 11:07 PM AKDT     0.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:31 PM AKDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North Bay, Stuart Island, Norton Sound, Alaska, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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