Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 10:03 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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PKZ805 Moses Point To Sledge Island Out To 15 Nm- 552 Am Akdt Mon Apr 29 2024
Today - NW winds 10 kt. Tonight - NW winds 10 kt. Tue - N winds 15 kt. Tue night - NE winds 15 kt. Wed - NE winds 20 kt. Wed night - NE winds 15 kt. Thu - N winds 15 kt. Fri - NE winds 10 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 291431 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 631 AM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal most areas through Tue, warm closer to normal on Wed, then warm to well above normal by the end of the week south of the Brooks Range. Conditions will become more cloudy most areas on Tue and Wed with areal coverage of showers increasing slightly each day today through Wed.

Expect Isolated showers near the ALCAN Border today, and Isolated snow and rain showers over the NW Interior and Central Brooks Range today. Expect isolated showers over most of the Interior East of McGrath to Anaktuvuk Pass Tue with scattered showers along and just east of Denali to Fairbanks to Circle. Expect scattered showers southeast of the YK Delta to Bettles to Old Crow on Wed with isolated showers in the the chinook shadow of the AK Range from the Tanana River south on Wed.

Expect northeast winds 15-25 mph from St Lawrence Is to the Bering Strait then over NW AK to Point Lay on Tue and Wed.
Expect South winds 15 mph gusting to 30 mph through AK Range Passes on Wed, with those winds increasing slightly and continuing into Thu, then becoming stronger on Fri and Sat as a moderate to strong southerly chinook flow develops across the Alaska Range.

At the surface...
An Arctic weather front that lies from Point Lay to Chicken will persist into Tue and then move to the Yukon Delta to Circle on Wed. A cool Arctic Airmass will keep temperatures below normal north of this front. Any precipitation north of this feature should remain as snow.

High pressure over the Chukchi Sea will strengthen into Tue and then persist. This will cause Northeast winds to increase over NW AK and the West Coast of AK tonight into Tue and persist into Wed.
This is causing Stratus and fog along the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik east.

A secondary Arctic Cold front over the Northern Beaufort Sea will move along the Eastern Arctic Coast of Alaska late tonight and move over the eastern Beaufort Sea on Tue. This will bring mid to low levels clouds and periods of light snow, and lift stratus slightly.

A strong low southwest of Shemya will move to near Shemya on Tue, and to the Southeast bering Sea on Wed.

High pressure building over the Copper River Basin on Wed will cause southerly gap winds through Alaska Range Passes Wed.

DISCUSSION
At 00Z, models initialize well aloft. Models show similar solutions aloft through 4AM Tue. After that time the ECMWF becomes the outlier solution aloft as it pushes short wave energy from the Beaufort Sea south over NE Alaska as a low aloft, while other models split the short wave energy with some energy dropping SW across Western Alaska while the other energy moves SE across NW Canada. Given the weak ridging over southern Alaska, expect the splitting of short wave energy shown by the GFS/ NAM and Canadian models to be the most likely solution. The ECWMF solution of a low aloft developing over NE Alaska as the short wave moves south seems very unlikely. Will use a blend of the NAM, GFS and Canadian for features aloft through Wed.

The long wave pattern consists of a trough from the Canadian Archipelago southwest over northern AK and over NW Canada, with a ridge over the Bering and Chukchi Seas, and a second trough over the Sea of Okhotsk and the NW Pacific. This pattern will retrograde over the next several days as a strong short wave moves from the high Arctic south over Northern AK and Western AK and another strong short wave moves from the NW Pacific east undercutting the long wave ridge and forming a deep low aloft over the southern Bering Sea by Tue PM. By Tue night and Wed there is a long wave trough from the Beaufort Sea SW across NW AK to the Bering Sea. This will cause the current weak west flow aloft across Northern AK to persist today, then turn northeast across NW AK on Tue and SW across the Interior on Tue. Flow will become weak south over the Interior on Wed and weak northeast across NW AK on Wed. Southerly flow will increase over the Interior from Thu into Fri and possibly into Sat.

This upper level pattern means that temperatures will remain cooler than normal most areas through Tue, warm closer to normal on Wed, then warm to well above normal by the end of the week south of the Brooks Range. This also means that conditions will become more cloudy most areas on Tue and Wed with precipitation areal coverage increasing slightly on Tue and Wed.

With precipitation, will use a blend of the NAM and GFS for areal coverage. Main feature is that areal coverage will increase slightly each day today through Wed. Expect Isolated showers near the ALCAN Border today, and Isolated snow and rain showers over the NW Interior and Central Brooks Range today. Expect isolated showers over most of the Interior East of McGrath to Anaktuvuk Pass Tue with scattered showers along and just east of Denali to Fairbanks to Circle. Expect scattered showers southeast of the YK Delta to Bettles to Old Crow on Wed with Isolated showers in the the chinook shadow of the AK Range from the Tanana River south on Wed.

At the surface at 06Z, models verify well over Alaska. Will use a blend of the NAM and Canadian for surface features and winds through Wed. Highlights include: N 15 to 25 mph along Capes of the West Coast and NE 10-15 through Brooks Range Passes today. NE 15-25 mph from St Lawrence Is to the Bering Strait then over NW AK to Point Lay on Tue and Wed. South winds 15 mph gusting to 30 mph through AK Range Passes on Wed.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal most areas through Tue, warm closer to normal on Wed, then warm to well above normal by the end of the week. RH will remain dry today, in the 20-40% range driest from Denali to Fairbanks to Ft Yukon. Conditions will become more cloudy with slightly higher RH on Tue and Wed.
Expect light Isolated showers near the ALCAN Border today, and Isolated snow and rain showers over the NW Interior and Central Brooks Range today. Expect isolated light showers over most of the Interior east of McGrath to Anaktuvuk Pass Tue with scattered showers and possible wetting rain east of Denali to Fairbanks to Circle. Expect scattered showers southeast of the YK Delta to Bettles to Old Crow on Wed with Isolated showers in the the chinook shadow of the AK Range from the Tanana River south on Wed.

South winds 15 mph gusting to 30 mph through AK Range Passes expected on Wed, with those winds increasing slightly and continuing into Thu, then becoming stronger on Fri and Sat.
RH expected to be above 25% Wed and Thu, but Fri and Sat could see near red flag conditions near Delta Junction as a moderate to strong southerly chinook flow develops across the Alaska Range.

HYDROLOGY
No issues at this time. Yukon River ice still in place.
Cooler than normal temperatures should keep slow melt through the middle of this week. Warmer than normal temperature late this week could speed up melt and flow of water into rivers by the weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807-811-854-856-857.

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