Thursday, September20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hughes, AK

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 8:02PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 10:26 PM AKDT (06:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:20PMMoonset 11:10PM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hughes, AK
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location: 66.69, -153.99     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 192146
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
146 pm akdt Wed sep 19 2018

Discussion
Synopsis...

unsettled weather will continue across much of the state as a
series of disturbances impact the west and southwest coasts before
moving eastward across the interior. Impressive rainfall from the
yukon delta to the western and central interior will become the
primary concern over the short term, as strong winds begin to
subside across the eastern arctic coast.

Aloft 500 mb...

a 545 dam low moving southeast through the kotzebue sound is the
source of the series of frontal boundaries currently parading
across the west coast and interior. The system will turn east to
move along the brooks range, reaching 150 nm north of bettles by
Friday morning. At this point, model guidance diverges
significantly, with the GFS suggesting a continued northeast track
to the beaufort coast before merging with a trough emanating from
a 527 dam low centered near banks island Saturday. The ecmwf
shows a much different solution with the low retrograding
southwest from the brooks range to then merge with another low
pressure system over the seward peninsula as it moves east from
the central bering. These very different outcomes have far
reaching effects on the synoptic forecast this weekend and beyond,
so forecast confidence beyond this point remains fairly low. For
now we will favor the GFS solution, as the retrograding low seems
out of place in what is otherwise a very progressive west to east
pattern.

North slope and brooks range...

the north slope will remain unusually free of adverse weather
through tonight as unsettled weather is confined south of the
brooks range. High pressure centered roughly 350 nm north of the
mackenzie delta will move southeast into northern canada,
loosening the pressure gradient along the beaufort coast.

Easterly winds will continue to decrease throughout today as the
next low approaches from the southwest. Rain will begin to spread
into the central brooks range tonight, becoming heavy at times
with rainfall totals of 1.00 to 2.00 inches through Thursday
evening. As the low approaches the coast Thursday, winds will
begin to shift northeasterly along the coast to the west of
nuiqsut. Low stratus and occasional fog is possible for these
areas. From deadhorse east, expect an increase in southeast winds
along with mainly clear skies and warmer temperatures before a
frontal boundary moves north through the brooks range early
Friday. Rain and snow showers will develop near the low center
Friday and spread east to barter island as the low continues
northeast. Snow levels in the central and eastern brooks range of
around 3500 ft. Will drop to around 2000 ft. By late Friday with
up to an inch of snow possible at pass level.

West coast and western interior...

low pressure centered just southeast of kotzebue will track east
across the brooks range over the next couple of days. A weather
front emanating from the center will lie along a line from kaltag
to unalakleet and east into the norton sound. The front will
remain just off the coast of nome before being pushed onshore
Friday ahead of a weak ridge. The front will sweep east, with
rainfall totals through Thursday evening of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
for most areas. Upslope favored areas of the nulato hills and
kuskokwim mountains may see locally up to 1.50 inches. A low in
the north pacific will move rapidly northeast into the south
central bering by late Thursday, with the leading front impacting
the y-k delta by early Friday. The depth of the low and its
associated wind field remain questionable, but significant
moisture is expected with this system as it moves into the
interior this weekend.

Central and eastern interior...

scattered showers associated with southwest flow ahead of the
front will continue to permeate the region through tonight as
light winds gradually shift to the southeast. Rain will begin to
spread east ahead of the front reaching bettles to tanana to
minchumina by Thursday morning, then fort yukon to fairbanks by
Thursday evening. The low continue northeast into the weekend, as
the front dissipates behind it, leaving scattered showers in its
wake. Areas of fog will continue to develop across the interior as
widespread saturation and cool evening temperatures combine to
reduce visibility, especially in the morning. Rain will again
spread east across the region Saturday, as a bering low moves
onshore. Additionally, increasing south winds will initiate
chinook conditions across the alaska range Saturday, though deep
layer saturation may overcome this effect in the lower tanana
valley.

Coastal hazard potential...

a north pacific low will move rapidly northeast into the south
central bering by Thursday. Models have solid agreement regarding
the forecast track with the center moving northeast across or just
north of nunivak island early Saturday. There remains a large
spread with the strength of the system, though favorable dynamics
and a deepening trend with each model run suggest a 985 mb low
with sustained 25 to 30 kt winds to the north. We will continue
to monitor for potential impacts to coastal locations along the
norton sound and north shores of st. Lawrence island.

Hydrology
Modest rises in river levels are expected across the interior as a
series of weather systems deliver widespread measurable rainfall.

However, no forecast yet approaches action stage, as levels are
currently quite low. Locally heavy rainfall at times may cause
more significant rises in small streams through the weekend.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Small craft advisory for pkz240-pkz245.

Cowman sep 18


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from AIM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6--CalmCalmSW6W6CalmCalmNE5W4NW4W3CalmCalm--------------SE7SE8
1 day agoCalmCalm--CalmE3CalmCalmNE4NE7S4S4CalmCalmCalmS5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E9E10E10
2 days agoCalmCalm--SE3SE5S7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.