Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kotzebue, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 8:43AMSunset 6:47PM Monday October 15, 2018 2:31 AM AKDT (10:31 UTC) Moonrise 4:41PMMoonset 8:05PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ215 Kotzebue Sound- 236 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 14 2018
Tonight..E winds 15 kt. Seas building to 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..NE winds 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..N winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..W winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 236 Pm Akdt Sun Oct 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Tonight..E winds 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..NE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
Tue..NE winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Wed night..N winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Thu..W winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kotzebue, AK
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location: 66.9, -162.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 142346
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
346 pm akdt Sun oct 14 2018

Discussion
Overall the models are in good agreement in the short term with
the main synoptic scale features and paint an active picture for
much of the interior over the next few days.

Aloft, at 500 mb, a 516 dam low south of adak will move to the
east tonight before turning to the north on Monday reaching
bristol bay Monday afternoon. As the low moves to the east it will
help to pump up a ridge along the canadian border that will bring
southerly flow across much of the forecast area. The low over
bristol bay will persist for much of the upcoming week, although
it will weaken after Tuesday night. The ridge over the canadian
border will push to the east Tuesday night turning the flow aloft
more southwesterly.

At the surface, a 970 mb low south of unalaska will push east
tonight before turning to the north on Monday. The low will reach
bristol bay by Monday afternoon where it will persist through
Wednesday night, gradually weakening in place. A ridge of high
pressure will build east over eastern russia Monday. High
pressure will persist over the arctic for much of the week.

Central and eastern interior: relatively quiet for most areas
tonight, although fog is expected in many valley locations around
the interior. The next system will begin to approach from the
south on Monday. During the day a trough will strengthen just
north of the alaska range. This will cause winds to increase
across the interior. Southerly gap winds will reach advisory
criteria in the eastern alaska range Monday night with advisory
level winds persisting into Tuesday. I opted to go ahead and issue
wind advisories for zones 223 and 226 for the expected winds.

Precipitation associated with this system will spread north Monday
evening. Strong southerly flow over the alaska range will keep
the snow level above 6000 feet south of the yukon river early
Tuesday before decreasing to around 4000 feet late Tuesday.

Because of this, precipitation associated with this system is
expected to be rather messy, with a mixed bag of rain, freezing
rain and snow. Initially, on Monday night, the southerly winds
will help to limit the potential for precipitation from just north
of the alaska range to just north of fairbanks. From livengood
north to the yukon river freezing rain is expected at times Monday
night and Tuesday. Because of the potential for freezing rain i
am issuing a winter storm watch for zone 220 for Monday night into
Tuesday. North of the yukon river, we expect to 2 to 7 inches of
snow Tuesday into Wednesday with high accumulations the closer you
get to the brooks range. Zones 218 and 219 will likely need a
winter weather product with this system; however, we will hold off
at this point with putting any out. On Tuesday, the flow aloft
turns a little bit more southwesterly allowing for higher pops in
the fairbanks area. For fairbanks we are expecting rain as the
precipitation type with this system. West of fairbanks, there is
some potential for some light freezing rain early in the day on
Tuesday from tanana south to minchumina; however the precipitation
will change over to rain later in the day. Precipitation with
this system is expected to taper off south of the yukon river
Tuesday evening and will taper off north of the yukon river early
Wednesday morning. We liked the NAM solution as far as timing
goes. The GFS wants to hold onto the precip over the fairbanks
area well into Wednesday. We did hint at this, keeping a slight
chance of pops for fairbanks for Wednesday morning. If the gfs
solution does pan out, light freezing rain is possible for
fairbanks early Wednesday; however, right now our current thinking
is that the chances of this happening is quite low. The GFS is
currently hinting at another system moving to the north Thursday
night into Friday thanks to a strong low in the gulf of alaska.

North slope and brooks range: some light snowfall is expected in
the eastern brooks range and along the eastern arctic coast this
evening. Any snowfall will taper off by early Monday morning.

Snowfall associated with the next system will begin in the brooks
range on Tuesday. 4 to 7 inches of snow is expected on the south
side of the brooks range before snow tapers off on Wednesday. The
north slopes of the brooks range will see lesser amounts due of
downsloping. Snowfall with this system will begin late Tuesday
along the arctic coast with the precipitation lasting into
Wednesday evening. Snow amounts along the coast with this system
look to be around 2 to 5 inches. Easterly winds along the coast
will pick up Tuesday with gusts up to 40 mph possible east of
deadhorse (although the strongest winds look to remain offshore).

West coast and western interior: the next front looks to bring
spread rainfall north along the coast late Monday into Tuesday.

With the low persisting in the bristol bay we expect that
conditions will remain unsettled through the middle of the week.

The combination the low moving into bristol bay combined with
high pressure building over eastern russia will cause will cause
strong northeasterly winds to develop over the bering sea and
along the west coast. The strongest winds over a land area will be
over st. Lawerence island where gusts around 50 mph are possible
early Tuesday. Right now, the wind direction doesn't look
favorable for coastal flooding issues on st. Lawrence island for
Tuesday (the surge guidance is actually showing negative values).

The winds become more northwesterly for st. Lawrence island on
Wednesday; however, at that point they are also starting to die
down. We will have to watch this area closely. At any rate, the
waters just offshore from st. Lawrence island look to be quite
rough early this week. Elsewhere, we expect a lot of patchy fog
over the western interior tonight into early Monday.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None; however, see west
coast section above for issues in the shorter term.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Wind advisory for akz223-akz226.

Winter storm watch for akz220.

Winter weather advisory for akz218.

Small craft advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230.

Oct 18


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDDA2 - 9491094 - Red Dog Dock, AK 92 mi32 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 35°F 42°F1011.4 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Red Dog Dock, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ralph Wien Memorial Airport, AK4 mi39 minENE 710.00 miFair35°F32°F89%1010.4 hPa

Wind History from AOT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E7E10E8E11SE11SE10E11SE8E9SE4E9E6E5E6NE9NE7NE3NE8NE6NE8NE7NE8NE7
1 day agoE16E14E16E15E14E15E18E17E14E14E13E16E17E12E9E13E9E12E13E9E10E11E10E11
2 days agoSE13E13E13E13E14E16E14E18E19E18E18E19E19E18E18E21E18E17E17E17E15E15E15E16

Tide / Current Tables for Kiwalik, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska
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Kiwalik
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:02 AM AKDT     2.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:44 AM AKDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:45 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:32 PM AKDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:20 PM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 PM AKDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 PM AKDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:21 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.52.42.11.61.10.60.30.30.40.711.41.71.91.91.71.51.31.11.11.21.41.72

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.