Saturday, July22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kotzebue, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:07AMSunset 11:04PM Saturday July 22, 2017 6:49 PM AKDT (02:49 UTC) Moonrise 2:27AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ215 Kotzebue Sound- 306 Pm Akdt Sat Jul 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Fog.
Sun..S winds 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog, rain.
Sun night..SW winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Mon night..E winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 306 Pm Akdt Sat Jul 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 20 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Fog.
Sun..S winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog, rain.
Sun night..SW winds 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Fog.
Mon..SW winds 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Fog.
Mon night..SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kotzebue, AK
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location: 66.9, -162.58     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 222320
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
320 pm akdt Sat jul 22 2017

Discussion
Active weather pattern over northern alaska continues
the 12z model suite initialized well against the 12z surface
analysis and vitrified well against the 18z surface analysis.

The models continue to struggle with both the run to run
continuity as well as the model families differences. Spread
continues to be large in the short range and continues into both
the mid range and long range.

Model depictions of the track and strength of an early season low
moving northeast out of siberia into the southern chukchi sea
continue to show surface pressure differences of over 4 mb by the
48 hours and position differences of over 200 nm at the same time
range. These small differences in track and strength and therefore
wind fields will have significant impacts on the when and where
and to what extent high surf and coastal erosion will impact the
west coast and northwest coasts through Monday.

A 993 mb low currently over siberia will track northeast and
enter the chukchi sea around 200 nm southeast of wrangel island as
a 990 mb low Sunday morning and will be located 150 nm northwest
of point lay as a 990 mb low Sunday evening. The low continues to
move northeast to be located approximately 50 nm north of barrow
by Monday morning as a 994 mb low. The continues on a northeast
track and weakens to 995 mb over approximately 200 nm north of
prudhoe bay Monday evening.

The track of this low will bring persistent southwest to west
winds over a large area of the west coast north of the lower yk
delta and the north slope coast west of barrow. The favorable
wind direction and event duration will produce elevated surf and
high surf along much of the west, southwest and south facing
coasts of northern alaska. A high surf advisory has been issued
for a portion of the coast in eastern norton sound between cape
darby and unalakleet. Offshore waves of over 6 feet, and storm
surge values of between 4 and 5 feet combined with persistent
southwest winds of 30 mph will produce high surf conditions along
this portion of the coast. Special weather statement outlining
the potential for elevated surf with surge values in the 3 to 4
foot range from near nome to CAPE darby and from near unalakleet
to the lower yk delta coast has been issued. A special weather
statement has also been issued for the coastline in and near
kotzebue sound where 1 to 2 foot storm surge values are expected
and as well as north of CAPE krusenstern where a 2 to 3 foot storm
surge is expected to develop Sunday afternoon and continuing into
Monday. The highest storm surge values are expected to develop
Sunday afternoon and continue into Monday.

The ongoing high surf advisory on the north slope near barrow
remains on track with high surf noted on webcams and photos. The
high surf conditions with current surge values in the 1 foot
range above normal tides are expected to improve this evening as
the strong westerly winds diminish. Surge models continue to
indicate surge values increasing to 1 to 2 feet above normal tides
again Sunday afternoon and continuing into Monday, however wind
direction will switch to the south or southeast later tonight and
will remain offshore through late Sunday night or Monday morning
and will limit wave runup on the coast. The wind will shift back
to the northwest Monday morning and combined with still hi tide
level will present a window for another high surf event. Continue
to monitor.

Deep and moist southwest flow from the northern pacific is
forecast to move northeast ahead of a front moving ahead of the
low moving out of siberia into the chukchi sea. Heavy rains are
expected to develop over the western brooks range Sunday with 1 to
2 inches of rain possible in the heaviest areas through Monday
evening. Will need to closely monitor this area for rapid rises
on small streams and rivers. Generally less than 1 inch of rain is
expected through Monday night over the west coast and western
interior. The soaking rains continue to move east into the
central interior Sunday night and Monday with generally one half
to one inch expected. The deep westerly flow will enhance rainfall
totals in the western alaska range where steep terrain will
increase the risk of rapid rises on small streams and rivers.

The ongoing rain event in the eastern brooks range will be added
to with this next storm as westerly flow on Monday generates
another one half to one inch of rain over already rain soaked
terrain. Will need to monitor rises in small streams and rivers in
this area as well as the western alaska range.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4... None.

Fire weather None.

Hydrology
Continue to monitor the eastern brooks range and eastern north
slope as ongoing rain event 24 hour totals have added another one
half to one inch of rain on top of the rain that fell Thursday
night and Friday. Expect another one half to one inch with inbound
storm through Monday.

Continue to monitor the western brooks range with expected
rainfall of 1 to 2 inches through Monday evening.

Continue to monitor western alaska range with expected rainfall
totals of one half to one inch through Monday evening.

Afg watches warnings advisories
High wind watch for akz205.

High surf advisory for akz202-akz212.

Small craft advisory for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-
pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.

Ccc jul 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RDDA2 - 9491094 - Red Dog Dock, AK 92 mi49 min SSE 11 G 15 51°F 57°F1007.5 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Red Dog Dock, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ralph Wien Memorial Airport, AK4 mi56 minNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F54°F83%1007.7 hPa

Wind History from AOT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8S7S8W4W8W7W5W5W4W6W5NW5NW4W5W6W7W7W8W5W3NW3N4NW4NW4
1 day agoW13W13W15W16W17W13NW15NW9NW9NW6NW4NW6W6W8NW9W7W8W10SW7SW6S6S7S7SE8
2 days agoW14W18W16W18NW17W15W19W15W15NW15W15NW13W16W15W13W17W16W19W18W20W19W18W15W15

Tide / Current Tables for Kotzebue, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska
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Kotzebue
Click for MapNote: NOS uses UTC-11 for LST; AKST (since 1983) is UTC-9

Sat -- 01:14 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 04:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:39 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:43 AM AKDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:25 PM AKDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:28 PM AKDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:42 PM AKDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.40.60.70.80.80.80.70.50.40.30.20.10.10.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Kiwalik, Kotzebue Sound, Alaska
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Kiwalik
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:55 AM AKDT     Sunset
Sat -- 12:59 AM AKDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:36 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:52 AM AKDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:23 AM AKDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:08 PM AKDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:47 PM AKDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:55 PM AKDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.50.611.62.22.7332.61.91.10.3-0.3-0.6-0.4-00.61.21.82.12.221.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Nome, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.