Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 10:03 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM   Moonset 12:00 AM

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PKZ810 Cape Krusenstern To Cape Thompson Out To 15 Nm- 227 Pm Akdt Mon Apr 29 2024
.brisk wind advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon - .
Tonight - N winds 20 kt. Tue - NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue night - NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 nm or less. Wed - NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Wed night - NE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 nm or less. Thu - NE winds 20 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 nm or less. Thu night - N winds 20 kt. Fri - NE winds 15 kt. Sat - NE winds 15 kt.

FXAK69 PAFG 292221 AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 221 PM AKDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Models, with the exception of the ECMWF, continue to be in good agreement through the extended period. The ECMWF has had run to run consistency, but the evolution of the upper pattern continues to be the outlier for mid week. An upper low will track out of the Bering Sea and into the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday, with a secondary upper low across the Bering Sea and moving into the Gulf of Alaska through the end of the week. Upper troughing will continue across the North Slope through much of the period.
Southerly flow looks to increase across Interior Alaska by next week with moisture advecting northward and bringing better chances for precipitation. In addition, the southerly flow will lead to increased Chinook winds to the Alaska Range, with elevated fire weather concerns beginning Thursday and persisting into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Weak energy will continue to lift across Interior Alaska through Tuesday with isolated showers continuing from near Tok, northwest to areas south of Fairbanks. These showers will continue to be very spotty, and QPF amounts will be low for those areas that do see precipitation. Temperatures will also be cooler Tuesday into Wednesday, with lower 40s to mid 50s across the Interior.
Southerly flow will increase across Interior Alaska as the Bering Sea low moves into the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring increased moisture for the Interior, along with better chances for showers from Friday through Sunday. Southerly flow will also lead to increasing Chinook winds along the northern slopes of the Alaska Range. Gap winds and wind prone areas will see wind gusts increasing to the 30 to 50 mph range, especially Friday and Saturday. Daytime humidity values will fall to around 15 to 20 percent from mid to late week, with elevated fire weather conditions expected. The Chinook winds will also allow temperatures to warm back to near 60 near Fairbanks.

An Arctic cold front will continue to impact the North Slope through mid to late week. Temperatures will continue to be cold, with daytime highs in the teens and 20s. Periods of light snow, fog and low stratus will continue through Friday. Winds will will be on the increase by next weekend, with gusts 20 to 30 mph possible. This will likely lead to areas of blowing snow, along with continued fog and low stratus.

High pressure over the Yukon Delta will shift southeast away from the region by Wednesday. Moisture wrapping around the first Bering Sea low will spread into the Yukon Delta by Wednesday. Coastal areas will be cold enough for snow, while inland areas see period of rain. This will be a quick shot of precipitation given the seed of the upper low moving into the Gulf of Alaska. A brief break is expected on Thursday before the next Bering Sea low moves across the north Aleutians. A frontal boundary will bring more widespread showers to the West Coast Friday into Saturday. This shower activity will shift east by Sunday as the upper low moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Temperatures will remain cool with 30s to 40s across the West Coast. Winds will also be on the increase from Friday into the weekend across the Bering Strait and coastal areas. Winds look to gust 20 to 30 mph through the weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.



FIRE WEATHER

Slightly higher cooler temperatures will keep humidity values a bit elevated through Wednesday, falling into the 20 percent range Tuesday and Wednesday Afternoon. Chinook winds will increase across the area Thursday into Saturday. Winds will increase, with gap wind prone areas seeing gusts 30 to 50 mph Friday and Saturday. Humidity values will also fall to near 15 percent Thursday into Saturday and temperatures will warm back into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Tanana Valley. Showers will not produce wetting rains until the weekend.

AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ854.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.

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