Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kivalina, AK
May 15, 2024 9:07 PM AKDT (05:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:06 AM Sunset 10:45 PM Moonrise 10:52 AM Moonset 4:24 AM |
PKZ810 Cape Krusenstern To Cape Thompson Out To 15 Nm- 404 Pm Akdt Wed May 15 2024
.gale warning in effect through late Wednesday night - .
Tonight - S winds 40 kt decreasing to 35 kt. Blowing snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu - S winds 25 kt. Blowing snow. Snow. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night - S winds 20 kt.
Fri - S winds 15 kt.
Fri night - SE winds 10 kt.
Sat - N winds 10 kt.
Sat night - N winds 10 kt.
Sun - W winds 10 kt.
Mon - SE winds 10 kt.
PKZ800
No data
No data
FXAK69 PAFG 160118 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 518 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Interior of Alaska will persist into the weekend. This will keep conditions generally clear, warm and dry into the weekend across the Eastern Interior.
A strong storm just west of the Bering Strait is causing strong south winds over most of the West Coast, with near blizzard conditions in the Bering Strait over Northwest Alaska. These winds and near Blizzard conditions will taper off late tonight and early Thu as the storm moves northwest.
A cold front with this system that lies along the West Coast of Alaska will move over the Far Western Interior and Western North Slope tonight and to just east of Utqiagvik south over the Western Interior on Thu and then remain in place through Fri and weaken on Sat. This will bring light rain to the far Western Interior tonight and to much of the Western Interior on Thu, with isolated to scattered showers on Fri that will diminish to isolated showers on Sat. The North Slope will see little if any precip. The North Slope is warm with areas of fog today into Thu, then cool closer to normal and get cloudier and more foggy Fri into the weekend.
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Tanana to Chicken will move to Coldfoot to Chicken by 4pm Thu, then remain in place and strengthen Fri through Sat. This is causing southerly winds of 15 mph gusting to 30 mph to blow through Alaska Range Passes today and causing near Red Flag conditions between Delta Junction and Donnelly Dome this afternoon. This winds will decrease Thu as the trough moves further north of the Alaska Range.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening southeast of Chicken. No convection is expected Thu. There will be isolated showers and a very slight chance of thunderstorms along the thermal trough Fri and Sat PM.
Surface...
A 975 mb low 120 NM west of Point Hope will move to 100 NM north of Wrangel Island as a 985 mb low by 4pm Thu, then slowly weaken in place. A weather front stretching from this low to Kotzebue south to Bristol Bay will move east to Utqiagvik to McGrath by 4pm Thu, and to Nuiqsut to McGrath by 4pm Fri and then dissipate on Fri night and Sat.
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Tanana to Chicken will move to Coldfoot to Chicken by 4pm Thu, then remain in place and strengthen Fri through Sat.
High pressure will build over the Beaufort Sea Thu into Fri.
A low will move east across the Bering Sea Thu night and Fri and into Bristol Bay on Sat.
DISCUSSION
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions aloft through Sat. Will use a blend of models for features aloft through Sat.
The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Interior with a deep trough over the Bering Sea and NE Russia. This pattern will persist into the weekend, with the ridge building slightly Fri into Sat, then building west across most over Northern AK on Sun. This will keep conditions generally clear, warm and dry into the weekend across the Eastern Interior. The North Slope is warm with area of fog today into Thu, then cools closer to normal and gets cloudier and more foggy Fri into the weekend. The West Coast is very stormy and cold but winds and snow will decrease late tonight into Thu, then warm towards normal and become drier from Fri into Sat. The far Western Interior tonight will see rain tonight, with rain and cooler temps spreading to much of the Western Interior on Thu, with isolated to scattered showers on Fri, then warming and drying to isolated showers on Sat.
850 mb temperatures are near +4C over the SE Interior, above 0C east of McGrath and Utqiagvik and -6C along the West Coast.
Temps will cool over Western Alaska through Thu, then remain steady on Fri before warming on Sat. The Eastern portion of Alaska will see little change in temps through Fri then warming on Sat.
Models have similar precip patterns and will use a blend of models for precip. It looks like we have precip moving to far east over Central Brooks Range tonight and Thu, and following shifts will probably want to trim that back.
At the surface at 18Z, models None.all verify 6-8 mb too weak on the low over the Chukotsk Peninsula. The NAM is the deepest with this system so will use the NAM for surface features and winds, but will keep the central pressure of this system 5 mb deeper than the NAM through Fri and bump up winds over the Bering Strait and NW AK above model winds by 5kt now through Thu AM.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Elevated water levels 3-5 ft above normal high tides occuring today from the Bering Strait south. This has pushed water on top of ice near shore, but wave action low due to limited fetch length and water on top of ice appears to be only issue.
FIRE WEATHER
A ridge of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Interior of Alaska will persist into the weekend. This will keep conditions generally clear, warm and dry into the weekend across the Eastern Interior.
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Tanana to Chicken will move to Coldfoot to Chicken by 4pm Thu, then remain in place and strengthen Fri through Sat. This is causing southerly winds of 15 mph gusting to 30 mph to blow through Alaska Range Passes today and causing near Red Flag conditions between Delta Junction and Donnelly Dome this afternoon. This winds will decrease Thu as the trough moves further north of the Alaska Range.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening southeast of Chicken. No convection is expected Thu.
There will be isolated showers and a very slight chance of thunderstorms along the thermal trough Fri and Sat PM.
HYDROLOGY
Rivers north of the Yukon are starting to see some break up, but with warming temperatures through this weekend that could start to change by the weekend. The Yukon River upstream of Pilot Station is partially open with mainly weak and rotting ice left which lessens the chances of ice jams.
There was a report from Emmonak Tuesday evening stating that river levels have been rising. There was still about 8 inches of snow on top of the ice and people are still snow machining across the river with about 3 feet of ice at Nunam Iqua last week. The ice has not moved or broken in any way from Emmonak to Mountain Village. Due to this strong ice in place, this will be an area of ice jam concern once temperatures warm late this week and more water flows into the river.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814.
High Wind Warning for AKZ815.
High Wind Warning for AKZ817.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-813.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 518 PM AKDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Interior of Alaska will persist into the weekend. This will keep conditions generally clear, warm and dry into the weekend across the Eastern Interior.
A strong storm just west of the Bering Strait is causing strong south winds over most of the West Coast, with near blizzard conditions in the Bering Strait over Northwest Alaska. These winds and near Blizzard conditions will taper off late tonight and early Thu as the storm moves northwest.
A cold front with this system that lies along the West Coast of Alaska will move over the Far Western Interior and Western North Slope tonight and to just east of Utqiagvik south over the Western Interior on Thu and then remain in place through Fri and weaken on Sat. This will bring light rain to the far Western Interior tonight and to much of the Western Interior on Thu, with isolated to scattered showers on Fri that will diminish to isolated showers on Sat. The North Slope will see little if any precip. The North Slope is warm with areas of fog today into Thu, then cool closer to normal and get cloudier and more foggy Fri into the weekend.
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Tanana to Chicken will move to Coldfoot to Chicken by 4pm Thu, then remain in place and strengthen Fri through Sat. This is causing southerly winds of 15 mph gusting to 30 mph to blow through Alaska Range Passes today and causing near Red Flag conditions between Delta Junction and Donnelly Dome this afternoon. This winds will decrease Thu as the trough moves further north of the Alaska Range.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening southeast of Chicken. No convection is expected Thu. There will be isolated showers and a very slight chance of thunderstorms along the thermal trough Fri and Sat PM.
Surface...
A 975 mb low 120 NM west of Point Hope will move to 100 NM north of Wrangel Island as a 985 mb low by 4pm Thu, then slowly weaken in place. A weather front stretching from this low to Kotzebue south to Bristol Bay will move east to Utqiagvik to McGrath by 4pm Thu, and to Nuiqsut to McGrath by 4pm Fri and then dissipate on Fri night and Sat.
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Tanana to Chicken will move to Coldfoot to Chicken by 4pm Thu, then remain in place and strengthen Fri through Sat.
High pressure will build over the Beaufort Sea Thu into Fri.
A low will move east across the Bering Sea Thu night and Fri and into Bristol Bay on Sat.
DISCUSSION
Models initialize well aloft at 12Z and show similar solutions aloft through Sat. Will use a blend of models for features aloft through Sat.
The long wave pattern consists of a strong ridge of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Interior with a deep trough over the Bering Sea and NE Russia. This pattern will persist into the weekend, with the ridge building slightly Fri into Sat, then building west across most over Northern AK on Sun. This will keep conditions generally clear, warm and dry into the weekend across the Eastern Interior. The North Slope is warm with area of fog today into Thu, then cools closer to normal and gets cloudier and more foggy Fri into the weekend. The West Coast is very stormy and cold but winds and snow will decrease late tonight into Thu, then warm towards normal and become drier from Fri into Sat. The far Western Interior tonight will see rain tonight, with rain and cooler temps spreading to much of the Western Interior on Thu, with isolated to scattered showers on Fri, then warming and drying to isolated showers on Sat.
850 mb temperatures are near +4C over the SE Interior, above 0C east of McGrath and Utqiagvik and -6C along the West Coast.
Temps will cool over Western Alaska through Thu, then remain steady on Fri before warming on Sat. The Eastern portion of Alaska will see little change in temps through Fri then warming on Sat.
Models have similar precip patterns and will use a blend of models for precip. It looks like we have precip moving to far east over Central Brooks Range tonight and Thu, and following shifts will probably want to trim that back.
At the surface at 18Z, models None.all verify 6-8 mb too weak on the low over the Chukotsk Peninsula. The NAM is the deepest with this system so will use the NAM for surface features and winds, but will keep the central pressure of this system 5 mb deeper than the NAM through Fri and bump up winds over the Bering Strait and NW AK above model winds by 5kt now through Thu AM.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4... Elevated water levels 3-5 ft above normal high tides occuring today from the Bering Strait south. This has pushed water on top of ice near shore, but wave action low due to limited fetch length and water on top of ice appears to be only issue.
FIRE WEATHER
A ridge of high pressure aloft over the Eastern Interior of Alaska will persist into the weekend. This will keep conditions generally clear, warm and dry into the weekend across the Eastern Interior.
A thermal low pressure trough stretching from Tanana to Chicken will move to Coldfoot to Chicken by 4pm Thu, then remain in place and strengthen Fri through Sat. This is causing southerly winds of 15 mph gusting to 30 mph to blow through Alaska Range Passes today and causing near Red Flag conditions between Delta Junction and Donnelly Dome this afternoon. This winds will decrease Thu as the trough moves further north of the Alaska Range.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening southeast of Chicken. No convection is expected Thu.
There will be isolated showers and a very slight chance of thunderstorms along the thermal trough Fri and Sat PM.
HYDROLOGY
Rivers north of the Yukon are starting to see some break up, but with warming temperatures through this weekend that could start to change by the weekend. The Yukon River upstream of Pilot Station is partially open with mainly weak and rotting ice left which lessens the chances of ice jams.
There was a report from Emmonak Tuesday evening stating that river levels have been rising. There was still about 8 inches of snow on top of the ice and people are still snow machining across the river with about 3 feet of ice at Nunam Iqua last week. The ice has not moved or broken in any way from Emmonak to Mountain Village. Due to this strong ice in place, this will be an area of ice jam concern once temperatures warm late this week and more water flows into the river.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801-820-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814.
High Wind Warning for AKZ815.
High Wind Warning for AKZ817.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ823.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-816.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-813.
Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854-856.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-859.
Gale Warning for PKZ810.
Gale Warning for PKZ811.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ857.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RDDA2 - 9491094 - Red Dog Dock, AK | 30 mi | 49 min | S 38G | 37°F | 29°F | 29.46 |
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| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Nome/Fairbanks,AK
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