Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kivalina, AK
May 12, 2024 2:26 PM AKDT (22:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:14 AM Sunset 10:37 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
PKZ810 Cape Krusenstern To Cape Thompson Out To 15 Nm- 204 Pm Akdt Sun May 12 2024
Tonight - N winds 15 kt.
Mon - NW winds 10 kt.
Mon night - W winds 10 kt.
Tue - SE winds 25 kt. Blowing snow.
Tue night - SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow.
Wed - SE winds 35 kt.
Wed night - SE winds 30 kt. Blowing snow.
Thu - S winds 25 kt.
Fri - NW winds 15 kt.
PKZ800
No data
No data
FXAK69 PAFG 121126 AFDAFG
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 326 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will be comparable to yesterday across the state.
Numerous showers will develop over the Eastern Interior with scattered showers in the Central Interior today. There is also a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm. A Flood Watch continues for the Yukon River due to an ice jam 12 miles upstream from Circle. A strong front could impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Winter Storm Watches have been issued.
DISCUSSION
Upper Level Analysis...
Weak troughing over the North Slope will continue through Monday night before brief ridging moves in from the west. Ridging in the Interior will continue today, but a few shortwaves moving north from the Gulf of Alaska will make for some more active weather.
Relatively weak ridging over the West Coast will continue through Monday, but a few shortwaves move through from the north. These won't be too impactful besides sparking isolated rain showers and the potential for a storm. A pattern change occurs on Tuesday with a strong upper low moving through the Bering and near the Bering Strait.
West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet through Monday. High temperatures will be in the 50s in the Interior while the coast hangs around the low to mid 30s. Scattered to numerous showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm from the western Alaska Range to McGrath, north to Tanana today. There is a shortwave trough dropping south from the Chukchi Sea on Monday bringing a chance for showers and an isolated storm south and east of Huslia. A strong front will begin to impact the West Coast on Tuesday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation type, track and coastal flooding but there are Winter Storm Watches issued for the Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island for snow and blowing snow.
Central and Eastern Interior...
This afternoon will be comparable in terms of temperatures in the Central Interior. Rain has already begun from Northway to Tok and this will lead to cooler temperatures in the Eastern Interior as rain continues through the evening hours. Rainfall totals will be relatively heavy with 0.25 to 0.50 inches expected from Tok north and east. There is a chance for higher amounts in persistent heavier downpours, especially near Tok. In the Central Interior, we'll monitor higher terrain rain showers with a nonzero chance for a storm. With north-northeast flow, a few of these may try to get into the Fairbanks Bowl this evening. Otherwise, chances for showers and an isolated storm increases on Monday as upper level energy moves through from the west. Scattered to numerous rain showers look likely to develop during the afternoon and continue into the overnight hours before diminishing in coverage. Tuesday looks to be much drier in the Central Interior with isolated showers remaining in the Eastern Interior. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few snow showers possible as well. Expect high temperatures in the 20s along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early next week. The weather looks to remain pretty mundane through Monday afternoon. Then Monday evening, we are monitoring a Bering Sea Low which will bring a strong front to the West Coast. There may be some winter weather impacts to the Chukchi Sea Coast, especially Point Hope. Exact impacts are still uncertain.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Bering Sea low with strong southerly winds looks to bring water levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line Wednesday morning through Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it may not be enough to bump it out of place, but water on top of the ice is a possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push ashore as well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.
Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the a Bering Sea low Tuesday into Thursday. 00z models are in better agreement but still uncertain with the exact track. Though it does seem more likely that a low will be moving through the Bering and then turning north near the Bering Strait. There is a potential for strong southerly winds along the West Coast with snow/mixed precipitation, blowing snow and elevated surf along the coast.
FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 in the Central Interior with highs around 50 in the Eastern Interior. Areas of rain are likely in the Eastern Interior today with wetting rain likely from Delta Junction north and east. Expect rainfall totals from Tok north and east around 0.25 to 0.50 inches with lesser amounts towards Delta Junction. Scattered showers will develop tomorrow afternoon in the Eastern Interior with more numerous showers in the Central Interior. Wetting rains with these showers are likely, especially in the higher terrain. Rainfall totals in the Fairbanks Bowl will lie around 0.05 to 0.10 inches with slightly higher amounts near 0.15 inches in the Eastern Interior.
HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning. A persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. The jam has been in place for 6 days without any significant changes.
The braided channels near Circle continue to melt slowly. Chunk ice and small pans can easily pass by Circle and across the south bends. A large section of intact ice 4 miles long remains above Circle. When that breaks up, there is a small chance it could cause an ice jam and minor flooding. The gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>823.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 326 AM AKDT Sun May 12 2024
SYNOPSIS
Temperatures will be comparable to yesterday across the state.
Numerous showers will develop over the Eastern Interior with scattered showers in the Central Interior today. There is also a slight chance for an isolated thunderstorm. A Flood Watch continues for the Yukon River due to an ice jam 12 miles upstream from Circle. A strong front could impact the west coast on Tuesday with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. Winter Storm Watches have been issued.
DISCUSSION
Upper Level Analysis...
Weak troughing over the North Slope will continue through Monday night before brief ridging moves in from the west. Ridging in the Interior will continue today, but a few shortwaves moving north from the Gulf of Alaska will make for some more active weather.
Relatively weak ridging over the West Coast will continue through Monday, but a few shortwaves move through from the north. These won't be too impactful besides sparking isolated rain showers and the potential for a storm. A pattern change occurs on Tuesday with a strong upper low moving through the Bering and near the Bering Strait.
West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet through Monday. High temperatures will be in the 50s in the Interior while the coast hangs around the low to mid 30s. Scattered to numerous showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm from the western Alaska Range to McGrath, north to Tanana today. There is a shortwave trough dropping south from the Chukchi Sea on Monday bringing a chance for showers and an isolated storm south and east of Huslia. A strong front will begin to impact the West Coast on Tuesday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation type, track and coastal flooding but there are Winter Storm Watches issued for the Seward Peninsula and St. Lawrence Island for snow and blowing snow.
Central and Eastern Interior...
This afternoon will be comparable in terms of temperatures in the Central Interior. Rain has already begun from Northway to Tok and this will lead to cooler temperatures in the Eastern Interior as rain continues through the evening hours. Rainfall totals will be relatively heavy with 0.25 to 0.50 inches expected from Tok north and east. There is a chance for higher amounts in persistent heavier downpours, especially near Tok. In the Central Interior, we'll monitor higher terrain rain showers with a nonzero chance for a storm. With north-northeast flow, a few of these may try to get into the Fairbanks Bowl this evening. Otherwise, chances for showers and an isolated storm increases on Monday as upper level energy moves through from the west. Scattered to numerous rain showers look likely to develop during the afternoon and continue into the overnight hours before diminishing in coverage. Tuesday looks to be much drier in the Central Interior with isolated showers remaining in the Eastern Interior. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Interior.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few snow showers possible as well. Expect high temperatures in the 20s along the coast with 30s in the Brooks Range through early next week. The weather looks to remain pretty mundane through Monday afternoon. Then Monday evening, we are monitoring a Bering Sea Low which will bring a strong front to the West Coast. There may be some winter weather impacts to the Chukchi Sea Coast, especially Point Hope. Exact impacts are still uncertain.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Bering Sea low with strong southerly winds looks to bring water levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line Wednesday morning through Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it may not be enough to bump it out of place, but water on top of the ice is a possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push ashore as well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.
Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
More of the same across the Interior with showers and Isolated thunderstorms. The only impactful system we are monitoring is the a Bering Sea low Tuesday into Thursday. 00z models are in better agreement but still uncertain with the exact track. Though it does seem more likely that a low will be moving through the Bering and then turning north near the Bering Strait. There is a potential for strong southerly winds along the West Coast with snow/mixed precipitation, blowing snow and elevated surf along the coast.
FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 in the Central Interior with highs around 50 in the Eastern Interior. Areas of rain are likely in the Eastern Interior today with wetting rain likely from Delta Junction north and east. Expect rainfall totals from Tok north and east around 0.25 to 0.50 inches with lesser amounts towards Delta Junction. Scattered showers will develop tomorrow afternoon in the Eastern Interior with more numerous showers in the Central Interior. Wetting rains with these showers are likely, especially in the higher terrain. Rainfall totals in the Fairbanks Bowl will lie around 0.05 to 0.10 inches with slightly higher amounts near 0.15 inches in the Eastern Interior.
HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect through Monday morning. A persistent ice jam remains 12 miles upstream from Circle. The jam has been in place for 6 days without any significant changes.
The braided channels near Circle continue to melt slowly. Chunk ice and small pans can easily pass by Circle and across the south bends. A large section of intact ice 4 miles long remains above Circle. When that breaks up, there is a small chance it could cause an ice jam and minor flooding. The gradual breakup trend is expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up over the next few days.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820>823.
Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-804-852.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ805.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ850.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| RDDA2 - 9491094 - Red Dog Dock, AK | 30 mi | 56 min | NW 12G | 32°F | 29°F | 29.73 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Kivalina, Alaska, Tide feet
Nome/Fairbanks,AK
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