Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudhoe Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 3:30AMSunset 12:06AM Monday May 29, 2017 7:43 PM AKDT (03:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 2:52AM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ240 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island- 239 Pm Akdt Mon May 29 2017
.brisk wind advisory in effect through early Tuesday morning...
Tonight..E winds 30 kt. Rain.
Tue..E winds 15 kt. Freezing fog.
Tue night..W winds 15 kt. Freezing fog.
Wed..W winds 20 kt. Freezing fog.
Wed night..W winds 20 kt.
Thu..W winds 10 kt.
Thu night..E winds 15 kt.
Fri..E winds 20 kt.
Sat..E winds 15 kt.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 246 Pm Akdt Mon May 29 2017
Tonight..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudhoe Bay, AK
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location: 70.46, -149.44     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 292226
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
226 pm akdt Mon may 29 2017

Discussion
Models... The same general trend continues with the models doing
relatively well over the first 90 hours or so, then patterns
diverge quite significantly. For the 29 12z solutions, that trend
continued. They initialize well against the 29 18z local surface
analysis, but after 54 hours the begin to diverge, and by 96
hours they have very different solutions. Will be using a blend
for the first 72 hours this cycle, then will look at a more means
based blend for the extended periods to soften some of the bumps.

Aloft... At 500 hpa... Ridging over the central and eastern
interior will weaken and be pushed north and east as a 532 dam low
over cook inlet moves north over lake minchumina this evening,
then north over anaktuvuk pass by Tuesday morning as it weakens to
539 dam. A shortwave lies from the low south today and will move
to lie from anaktuvuk pass to central to glennallen to cook inlet
by Tuesday morning. The low and shortwave will sync up with a
532 dam low and shortwave over the chukchi sea that will drift
slowly north tonight, then to 250 north of wrangel island by
Wednesday morning. The combined wave will lie from near wrangel
island over barrow to fort yukon to valdez by Tuesday afternoon,
moving north and east out of the state late Wednesday morning.

Ridging will build west across the southern half of mainland
alaska Tuesday night, then over interior alaska by late Thursday.

At 850 hpa... Zero isotherm lies from barrow to huslia to yakutat
this afternoon with the temperature over fairbanks around +4c. By
Tuesday afternoon it will lie from deadhorse to atigun pass to
unalakleet to emmonak with the temperature over fairbanks around
+1c. And by Thursday it will lie over the crest of the eastern
brooks range to ambler to nome and over the eastern bering sea
with the temperature over fairbanks around +6c. Temperatures will
continue to slowly warm into the weekend.

Surface... Broad thermal trough over interior alaska with several
minor centers. Ridging over the arctic will persist as a low
develops over the arctic plain and moves over barrow by Tuesday
morning at 1007 mb. This will tighten the pressure gradient over
the eastern arctic and beaufort sea as the low continues to move
northwest. The thermal trough will break down as energy is pulled
north into the arctic, and this will allow the 1018 mb high over
the southcentral area to build into the interior Tuesday night.

The thermal trough will redevelop in the upper tanana valley
Wednesday. By Wednesday night ridge of high pressure will lie over
the arctic coast from the chukchi sea over the canadian coast,
with a trough of low pressure over the arctic and another over the
gulf of alaska coast, bristol bay, and the aleutians. Easterly
flow will develop across the interior with warmer, more moist air
moving through the area.

Arctic coast and brooks range... Potential for a very mixed bag of
precipitation tonight as some warmer air moves north over the
area spreading snow and rain showers to the area with a good
chance of freezing rain as surfaces cool. Not looking for
significant accumulation of ice as there will be a good mixture of
precipitation and most surfaces are at or near freezing for most
hours during the day. Front will move through tonight and
northeast winds will diminish and become southwest to west for
most locations and diminish from around 20 mph to less than 10
mph. With high pressure building over the area Wednesday there
will be some sunny days to end the week. Temperatures will be
slowly rising, and the coastal areas could see highs in the low
40s this weekend.

West coast and western interior... Looks like it will be a very
nice week, especially in the coastal areas as surface ridging
builds out of siberia over the west coast. Some isolated
thunderstorms and showers in the interior locations through
Tuesday, then again this coming weekend as the atmosphere becomes
more unstable. Temperatures warming through the week and there
could be some highs in the 60s along the coast south of the bering
strait later in the week, while inland areas will reach the upper
60s by late in the week, and there may even be some 70s for highs
Saturday. Winds 5 to 20 mph tonight will be diminishing and be
less than 10 mph for most areas the remainder of the week, the
exception will be the outer capes where winds to 20 mph will
persist.

Central and eastern interior... Cloudy this evening with a few
sprinkles around the interior, but no significant rainfall
tonight. As the shortwave aloft moves north clearing Tuesday
across the interior with partly cloudy conditions prevailing into
Friday. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus Tuesday through
Thursday, but the atmosphere looks pretty stable for now. That
will change Friday as we return to a more convective pattern with
afternoon thunderstorms and showers possible and the potential for
some easterly wave activity coming out of canada. Gap flow winds
gusting to around 40 mph in the eastern alaska range today will
taper off this evening. Winds for the remainder of the area will
generally be less than 10 mph with occasional gusts to around 15
mph during the day. There is of course and exception, but this
time it is for the upper yukon flats where west winds of 10 to 20
mph will develop Tuesday night and diminish Wednesday.

Temperatures a bit cooler through Tuesday, then warming through
the remainder of the week with highs for many areas south of the
yukon river around 70 by the end of the week.

Fire weather Remains quiet for the moment, but expect it to
pick up later in the week as we see more seasonal convective and
drier conditions for the central and eastern interior. Relative
humidity values through Thursday will fall to 20 to 30 percent
during the afternoon hours for many locations, but winds will
generally be light, and not expecting much if any thunderstorms
activity until at least Friday.

Hydrology All the rivers and streams in the the interior are
trending down, and no significant rainfall or snowpack melting is
expected. In the arctic drainages, low flow continues in some of
the drainages with water continuing to pond in the frozen
drainages, with no immediate concerns as breakup trudges on.

Afg watches warnings advisories
Brisk wind advisory for pkz235-pkz240-pkz245.

Sdb may 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PRDA2 - 9497645 - Prudhoe Bay, AK 49 mi44 min E 19 G 20 34°F 1009.2 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Prudhoe Bay, AK
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SE9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kuparuk, Ugnu-Kuparuk Airport, AK13 mi59 minENE 1710.00 miOvercast32°F30°F93%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from AKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------E18E19E20E22
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G30
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G34
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G29
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G26
E21E20E17E17
1 day ago----------------E9E10E10E11E12E15E16E15E16E16E17E18E17E17E20E19
2 days ago----------------2NE3----W5W7W8W7NW6NW443--E4E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Cross Island (Dinkum Sands), Alaska
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Cross Island (Dinkum Sands)
Click for MapNote: NOS uses UTC-10 for LST; AKST (since 1983) is UTC-9

Mon -- 03:46 AM AKDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:50 AM AKDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:27 AM AKDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:59 AM AKDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM AKDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-00.10.20.40.60.70.70.60.50.40.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.