Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudhoe Bay, AK

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 9:37AMSunset 3:35PM Saturday November 18, 2017 10:21 AM AKST (19:21 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 3:34PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PKZ240 Cape Halkett To Flaxman Island- 415 Am Akst Sat Nov 18 2017
Today..W winds 10 kt becoming E 10 kt. Freezing fog.
Tonight..E winds 15 kt.
Sun..NE winds 20 kt.
Sun night..N winds 15 kt.
Mon..S winds 10 kt.
Mon night..SE winds 20 kt.
Tue..E winds 25 kt.
Wed..E winds 20 kt.
PKZ200 Norton Sound- 421 Am Akst Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect from early this afternoon through early Sunday morning...
Today..SE winds 15 kt increasing to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft. Snow. Vsby less than 1 nm. Freezing spray.
Tonight..SE winds 40 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Vsby less than 1 nm. Freezing spray.
Sun..NE winds 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing spray.
Sun night..N winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
Tue..W winds 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
Wed..SE winds 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudhoe Bay, AK
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location: 70.46, -149.44     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxak69 pafg 181321
afdafg
northern alaska forecast discussion
national weather service fairbanks ak
421 am akst Sat nov 18 2017

Synopsis
Aloft...

a long wave pattern consisting of ridge over the bering sea and
west coast of alaska and trough over NW alaska eastern gulf of
alaska will persist through next week. A series of strong short
wave troughs will ride over the top of this ridge and bring a
series of strong storms with rain, snow and strong winds into the
west coast of alaska while the eastern interior will remain cold
into next week.

A weak short wave trough over the eastern north slope will move
to central to inuvik by 3pm Sat then move east of the alcan border
tonight. Expect a few flurries with this.

A strong short wave in the western bering sea will move along the
dateline by 3pm sat, over the west coast of alaska by 3am sun,
and then moving into the gulf of ak Sun pm. This is bringing a
strong storm into the west coast today and western interior
tonight with strong winds, heavy snow, blizzard conditions, and
freezing rain. See surface discussion for details.

A second strong short wave trough moving into the western bering
sea mon, into the west coast of alaska tue, and to the eastern
interior wed. Another strong storm with strong winds and moderate
to heavy snow will accompany this trough.

A third strong trough moves across the bering Wed and into the
west coast Wed night.

Surface...

a low pressure trough from inuvik to deadhorse will move to old
crow to barrow by 3pm sun. Expect few flurries along this trough.

Sw winds over the arctic coast will turn NE north of the trough
late sat.

A trough stretching from point lay to denali will weaken today.

Stratus and flurries along this will diminish today.

A 995 mb low just west of anadyr will move over the chukotsk
peninsula as a 985 mb low by 3pm sat, to the bering strait as a
980 mb low by 3am sun, to sparrevohn as a 994 mb low by 3pm sun,
and then continue se.

A warm front extending SE from this low, will move to gambell to
bethel by 3pm Sat with a cold front occluding the warm front nw
of gambell and then extending from gambell to st paul island. The
front will rapidly occlude from the bering strait to a triple
point near dillingham by 3am sat. After this time there will be a
hang back occlusion from sparrevohn to the bering strait through
3pm Sun then dissipating Sun night.

There is heavy snow ahead of the warm occluded front that will
change to rain in the warm sector, then chance back to snow with
the cold front. This rain will freeze on the cold ground in zones
214 and southern 215 today as the warm sector moves over it.

Expect 8-12 inches of snow just north of the front, with lesser
amounts in northern zones 216 and in zone 209. Expect one quarter
inch or more ice accumulation in zones 214 and southern 215 today,
so those areas will only get 4-8 inches of snow. Snow will taper
off rapidly Sunday as the low and front moves south.

Expect SE winds 25-35kt ahead of the warm front which will cause
blizzard conditions in areas with falling snow. Expect winds to
turn W 25-30 kt west of the occluded front, then NW 35-45kt in the
sw quadrant of the low center. This could bring blizzard
conditions to zones 213 and 214 after the occluded frontal
passage. Since the front winds do not last for more than 12 hrs
this will likely only cause high surf to the yukon delta and
stebbins west of zone 212 tonight and Sun with a storm surge of 3
feet. This will cause water to rise on the yukon river in the
delta tonight and Sun as well.

High pressure developing over the eastern interior tonight will
persist into Sun then weaken. This will cause easterly drainage
winds along the tanana and yukon rivers to develop tonight and
continue into Sun as the pressure gradient increases with the low
approaching the west coast.

A second strong low will move from the western bering to near
anadyr on Mon and over the southern chukchi sea tue. This will
bring another round of strong winds, snow, blowing snow and
possible blizzard conditions to the west coast Mon night and tue.

This could bring a significant storm surge and possible coastal
flooding to the west coast of alaska Tue into wed, but still much
uncertainty on this. Will keep eye on this feature for further
developments.

Discussion
Deterministic models initialize well at h500 and show similar
solutions through 3pm mon. By the middle of next week start to
see significant differences on strength timing of short wave
troughs. At the surface all models are about 4 mb too weak at 06z
sat on the surface low west of anadyr. Expect low will remain a
few mb deeper than models indicate through Sat night so will
adjust winds up a few kt over the bering as a result. The GFS and
ecmf move this low southeast tonight and Mon more slowly than the
nam. Favor the slower GFS and ecmf movement since the low will
likely be a bit deeper than indicated.

Models do differ on northerly extent of the precipitation, with
the GFS and ecmf moving precipitation into kotzebue while the nam
keeps most of the precip further south. The GFS also lessens the
precip amounts Sat night compared tot he ecmf and nam. Favor the
lesser amounts Sat night on the GFS as the triple point is moving
rapidly southeast and the heaviest precip should move south with
the triple point. So favor the GFS precip overall.

Coastal hazard potential days 3 and 4...

high surf for the yukon delta today and tonight.

A strong storm is expected to move from the western bering to
near anadyr on Mon and over the southern chukchi sea tue. This
could bring a significant storm surge and possible coastal
flooding to the west coast of alaska Tue into wed, but still much
uncertainty on this. Will keep eye on this feature for further
developments.

Afg watches warnings advisories
High surf advisory for akz212-akz214.

Winter storm warning for akz214-akz215.

Blizzard warning for akz207-akz209-akz210-akz211-akz212-akz213.

Winter storm watch for akz216.

Heavy freezing spray warning for pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230-
pkz235.

Gale warning for pkz200-pkz210-pkz215-pkz220-pkz225-pkz230.

Jb nov 17


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Prudhoe Bay, AK
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kuparuk, Ugnu-Kuparuk Airport, AK13 mi3.6 hrsW 510.00 miLight Snow7°F1°F78%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from AKU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE14NE11E12E10E6E6E8E3CalmN333SW6----------------W7W3W5
1 day agoE14E17E15E17E14E17E18E21--E24E24E25E25----------------NE17NE17E12
2 days agoSE8E10E16E17E17E21E22E23--E25E24E22E18----------------E16E19E17

Tide / Current Tables for Cross Island (Dinkum Sands), Alaska
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Cross Island (Dinkum Sands)
Click for MapNote: NOS uses UTC-10 for LST; AKST (since 1983) is UTC-9

Sat -- 01:41 AM AKST     0.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:42 AM AKST     New Moon
Sat -- 08:08 AM AKST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:21 AM AKST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:23 AM AKST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:39 PM AKST     0.47 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:49 PM AKST     Sunset
Sat -- 03:28 PM AKST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:32 PM AKST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.70.60.50.40.20.100.10.20.30.40.50.50.40.30.20-0-000.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
npac_satellite

GOES Local Image of Alaska    EDIT
Geos

Ground Weather Radar Station Pedro Dome, AK
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.