Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM Moonrise 2:20 AM   Moonset 3:49 PM

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FXUS65 KSLC 022121 AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 321 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
With an active northern stream remaining in control, expect active weather to persist through late Monday. By Wednesday, strong high pressure will bring the hottest airmass of the summer to much of the region.

SHORT TERM
The upper-level pattern will remain active through Monday ahead of high pressure building into the region starting Tuesday. For today, a shortwave trough passing over northern areas has produced isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern and eastern UT and southwestern WY. These showers have only produced wind gusts up to 40 mph, despite the dry low levels and steep low-level lapse rates. With limited leftover instability, gusts aren't expected to exceed that for the rest of the afternoon/evening. As the shortwave trough continues eastward and solar heating shuts off this evening, showers will come to an end by late evening.

Another shortwave trough will graze across northern areas once again, producing a cold front pushing through much of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Isolated showers could reach well into central Utah, with a band of more widespread precipitation expected mainly north of I-80. The Bear River Range in particular could see around 0.3-0.5" of QPF, with most other areas across northern Utah seeing around 0.1". In contrast, far southern Utah will likely stay hot and dry, with highs in St. George pushing into the upper-90s...though increasing afternoon cloud cover could limit these highs by a few degrees.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Tuesday), Issued 426 AM MDT...
A drier post-frontal northwest flow will be in place through Tuesday. It will be the coolest day of the week throughout southwest Wyoming and most of Utah, with valley high temperatures mainly upper 70s or low 80s. The exception will be far southern Utah, where less cold air advection is forecast from the Monday into Tuesday storm system. Lower Washington County and Lake Powell highs will range from the upper 90s to low 100s.

Confidence is high on a powerful ridge building in from the west Wednesday. The ridge will be in place at least into the weekend, bringing unseasonably warm conditions. Highs Wednesday will get into the upper 80s for most northern valleys, roughly 5-10F warmer than normal, and into the 90s and 100s for southern valleys, 10-15F warmer than normal. With strong subsidence and minimal moisture, clear skies are likely throughout southwest Wyoming and Utah.

Conditions will be similar Thursday, with the main difference being temperatures around 5F warmer. That will put some locations in record high territory, but in general, forecast highs and lows are slightly cooler than records. By later Thursday, models bring some mid and upper level moisture, especially into southern Utah.
While conditions will be dry, clouds could have some impact on warming in that portion of Utah.

Moisture will build northward Friday. Although forcing will be limited, enhanced moisture and daytime warming will likely bring at least scattered clouds with isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains. Although temperatures aloft will be similar to Thursday, maximum warming could be limited with more clouds and definitely with showers or thunderstorms.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although there is about a 40% chance of CIGs around or below 6000 feet with vicinity showers Monday afternoon. Otherwise, north winds this afternoon will give way to typical southerly winds overnight. Northwest winds will resume on by late morning Monday and be reinforced by the cold front and outflow from showers by midday into the afternoon.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
Widespread VFR conditions prevail under scattered mid/high level cloud cover and isolated showers across northeastern UT and southwestern WY. Showers decay this evening with lighter diurnal winds overnight. A cold front will cross the area on Monday brining rain showers across northern UT / SW WY and breezy westerly to northwesterly winds. Brief MVFR restrictions are possible but not likely across far northern UT.

FIRE WEATHER
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across northern and eastern Utah through roughly 2000-2200, with any showers capable of producing gusty outflow winds. Southern and western Utah will remain warm, dry, and breezy today. Tomorrow (Monday), min RH will trend higher over the entire area with the passage of a cold front, which will also bring a chance for wetting rain mainly north of I-80. The cold front will reach I-80 around early afternoon and I-70 by early evening. Building high pressure beginning Tuesday will bring the return of hot and dry conditions across the area through at least Thursday. Friday or Saturday could bring a dry lightning threat due to increasing mid- level moisture, but uncertainties still exist.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for UTZ123-131.

WY...None.

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