Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bingham, IL
June 2, 2024 4:48 PM CDT (21:48 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:34 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 2:51 AM Moonset 4:14 PM |
FXUS63 KLSX 022011 AFDLSX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A more active pattern will ensue Monday and continue into Tuesday night with multiple periods with showers and thunderstorms. A few of those storms could be strong to severe on Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures during this period will be above normal.
- There is increased concern for locally heavy rainfall on Monday night into early Tuesday morning that could pose a flash flood threat but the exact location is uncertain.
- A pattern change late week lasting into next weekend will bring cooler temperatures although the magnitude remains uncertain.
While overall less active, it may not be totally void of shower and thunderstorm chances.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Quasi-zonal mid-upper flow has developed across the Nation's midsection with retreating high pressure at the surface. Weather late this afternoon and evening will be relatively benign but there could be a brief light shower or sprinkles impacting parts of central and northeast MO associated with some mid level moisture and WAA early on. The more active weather pattern we have been discussing will begin to unfold later tonight, impacting the area Monday-Tuesday. During this time frame, there is a lack of well-defined larger scale forcing mechanisms, and sensible weather will be largely controlled by mesoscale features which will be dependent on weather/convection the previous 6-12+ hours.
Precipitation chances late tonight and into early Monday morning will be tied to the development of an upstream MCS across the Plains tonight, its organization, and longevity or rate of decay as it moves into central/northeast MO. There are both signals of a decaying MCS or remnant boundary moving into central and northeast MO on Monday morning. This boundary and potential for an attendant MCV should be the catalyst for convection across our area on Monday as it interacts with an increasingly unstable environment in the afternoon, however the trends/evolution are unclear. The plethora of short-range guidance forecasts abundant heating on Monday with temperatures well into the 80s which will result in significant instability and SBCAPE of 3000+ J/KG. While instability will be large, deep layer shear is quite weak, generally well below 20 kts. Storm modes could be messy with pulse storms and storm interactions leading to multicell clusters. A few strong to severe storms would be possible given the amount of CAPE, with damaging winds the greatest threat and marginal hail to a lesser extent.
Of growing concern is the potential for locally heavy and possibly excessive rainfall on Monday night into early Tuesday. The short range model guidance has an MCV/mid level vortex moving SW-NE across the area within weak flow aloft. The interaction of this MCV and a modest (20-30 kt) LLJ along with any remnant boundaries would be the foci for showers and thunderstorms. Slow storm motion, persistent cells and training potential, and an environment characterized by PWs of 1.5+ inches would support locally heavy rainfall. Somewhere across eastern MO possibly extending into western IL would be the zone that seems most favored, however the footprint may be small, only 2-4 counties.
The latest HRRR LPPM supports this scenario showing several small pockets of rainfall amounts of 3-7+ inches.
Glass
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A notable pattern change is still forecast to occur beginning on Tuesday night as an upper low moves across Saskatchewan to Lake Winnipeg and the accompanying short wave trof digs east- southeastward through the mid-upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. This trof will drive a cold front through the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Greater large scale and low-level forcing attendant with the advancing cold front and plentiful moisture/instability will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it, centered on Tuesday night.
Amplification in the large scale pattern across the CONUS proceeds into the later part of the week and into the weekend with the upper low and trof digging southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the eastern U
S
This trend has been apparent for several days in the guidance although the details of the upper low position and trof depth/orientation across SE Canada and the eastern U.S. seem to change with each consecutive model cycle. The latest ensemble guidance and cluster analysis from the 100 member LREF continues to show diverse solutions with this regard in the Friday-Sunday period with either WNW flow aloft or NNW flow aloft and 500 mb height differences as great as 100 meters. The accompanying 850 mb temperature differences are as great as 3-5 degC and these differences lead to low confidence in forecast details. In terms of sensible weather, this translates to the difference in below normal or near normal temperatures and possibility of any showers or thunderstorms. The IQR for high temperatures in the LREF is as much as 10+ degrees and the median temperatures and overall distribution would favor below normal values. The more NNW flow solution would support predominately dry weather, while a WNW flow solution suggests potential for several short waves traversing the area with an accompanying chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime over the weekend.
Glass
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR flight conditions are expected this afternoon and tonight.
There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms impacting parts of central/northeast MO and west-central IL (KJEF/KCOU/KUIN) on Monday morning, however uncertainty on timing and both presence and coverage of showers and storms is above normal thus included only VCSH or VCTS at this time.
Glass
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 311 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A more active pattern will ensue Monday and continue into Tuesday night with multiple periods with showers and thunderstorms. A few of those storms could be strong to severe on Monday afternoon and evening. Temperatures during this period will be above normal.
- There is increased concern for locally heavy rainfall on Monday night into early Tuesday morning that could pose a flash flood threat but the exact location is uncertain.
- A pattern change late week lasting into next weekend will bring cooler temperatures although the magnitude remains uncertain.
While overall less active, it may not be totally void of shower and thunderstorm chances.
SHORT TERM
(Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Quasi-zonal mid-upper flow has developed across the Nation's midsection with retreating high pressure at the surface. Weather late this afternoon and evening will be relatively benign but there could be a brief light shower or sprinkles impacting parts of central and northeast MO associated with some mid level moisture and WAA early on. The more active weather pattern we have been discussing will begin to unfold later tonight, impacting the area Monday-Tuesday. During this time frame, there is a lack of well-defined larger scale forcing mechanisms, and sensible weather will be largely controlled by mesoscale features which will be dependent on weather/convection the previous 6-12+ hours.
Precipitation chances late tonight and into early Monday morning will be tied to the development of an upstream MCS across the Plains tonight, its organization, and longevity or rate of decay as it moves into central/northeast MO. There are both signals of a decaying MCS or remnant boundary moving into central and northeast MO on Monday morning. This boundary and potential for an attendant MCV should be the catalyst for convection across our area on Monday as it interacts with an increasingly unstable environment in the afternoon, however the trends/evolution are unclear. The plethora of short-range guidance forecasts abundant heating on Monday with temperatures well into the 80s which will result in significant instability and SBCAPE of 3000+ J/KG. While instability will be large, deep layer shear is quite weak, generally well below 20 kts. Storm modes could be messy with pulse storms and storm interactions leading to multicell clusters. A few strong to severe storms would be possible given the amount of CAPE, with damaging winds the greatest threat and marginal hail to a lesser extent.
Of growing concern is the potential for locally heavy and possibly excessive rainfall on Monday night into early Tuesday. The short range model guidance has an MCV/mid level vortex moving SW-NE across the area within weak flow aloft. The interaction of this MCV and a modest (20-30 kt) LLJ along with any remnant boundaries would be the foci for showers and thunderstorms. Slow storm motion, persistent cells and training potential, and an environment characterized by PWs of 1.5+ inches would support locally heavy rainfall. Somewhere across eastern MO possibly extending into western IL would be the zone that seems most favored, however the footprint may be small, only 2-4 counties.
The latest HRRR LPPM supports this scenario showing several small pockets of rainfall amounts of 3-7+ inches.
Glass
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A notable pattern change is still forecast to occur beginning on Tuesday night as an upper low moves across Saskatchewan to Lake Winnipeg and the accompanying short wave trof digs east- southeastward through the mid-upper MS Valley and into the Great Lakes. This trof will drive a cold front through the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Greater large scale and low-level forcing attendant with the advancing cold front and plentiful moisture/instability will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it, centered on Tuesday night.
Amplification in the large scale pattern across the CONUS proceeds into the later part of the week and into the weekend with the upper low and trof digging southeastward through the Great Lakes and into the eastern U
S
This trend has been apparent for several days in the guidance although the details of the upper low position and trof depth/orientation across SE Canada and the eastern U.S. seem to change with each consecutive model cycle. The latest ensemble guidance and cluster analysis from the 100 member LREF continues to show diverse solutions with this regard in the Friday-Sunday period with either WNW flow aloft or NNW flow aloft and 500 mb height differences as great as 100 meters. The accompanying 850 mb temperature differences are as great as 3-5 degC and these differences lead to low confidence in forecast details. In terms of sensible weather, this translates to the difference in below normal or near normal temperatures and possibility of any showers or thunderstorms. The IQR for high temperatures in the LREF is as much as 10+ degrees and the median temperatures and overall distribution would favor below normal values. The more NNW flow solution would support predominately dry weather, while a WNW flow solution suggests potential for several short waves traversing the area with an accompanying chance of showers and thunderstorms sometime over the weekend.
Glass
AVIATION
(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
VFR flight conditions are expected this afternoon and tonight.
There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms impacting parts of central/northeast MO and west-central IL (KJEF/KCOU/KUIN) on Monday morning, however uncertainty on timing and both presence and coverage of showers and storms is above normal thus included only VCSH or VCTS at this time.
Glass
LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
IL...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Central Illinois, IL,
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