Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:46 AM   Moonset 4:13 PM

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FXUS61 KALY 021750 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 150 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Partly to mostly sunny conditions will continue this afternoon before a weak disturbance brings a shower or two to portions of the area tonight. Warm weather continues on Monday and Tuesday with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day, mainly across the higher terrain. Rain chances increase mid to late week as a larger system and cold front approach from the west.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

UPDATE
As of 149 PM EDT...Pleasant weather to close the weekend for eastern NY and western New England as a mid and upper level ridges axis remains over w-central New England. High pressure is building in from southeast Quebec. Mid and high clouds are streaming in from the west to southwest ahead a weak warm front and a short- wave trough running into the ridge from the Great Lakes Region and OH Valley. Some minor adjustments to sky cover and temps for partly to mostly sunny conditions. The 12 KALY sounding is very dry in the low to mid levels and had a PWAT below normal for June at 0.37". The upstream disturbance is going to run into this dry air mass tonight with some spotty to isolated showers or sprinkles. Temps will run above normal by close to 10 degrees with comfortable humidity levels. Max temps will be in the lower to spotty mid 80s in the lower elevations and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns.

PREV DISCUSSION [0650 AM EDT]...

While the upper- level shortwave will weaken as it moves across our area later this afternoon and through tonight, enough moisture may remain for a shower or two to occur, mainly across western and southern areas. Any showers that do occur should be very light and not amount to much if anything. Otherwise, skies will trend mostly cloudy for the night with temperatures falling into the 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Upper level ridging will reestablish itself near our region early in the week with it cresting just to our west. We will be located within north to northwesterly flow aloft as some weak upper level energy tracks up and over the ridge. Warm conditions will continue with humidity levels increasing slightly each day as low level flow turns more southerly with an area of high pressure setting up to our east near eastern New England.
Enough instability should develop each afternoon for some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage looks very sparse on Monday so PoPs were kept below slight chance at this time. Slightly greater coverage is expected for Tuesday so included slight chance PoPs and isolated coverage wording. Most of the activity should favor the higher elevations. Highs will reach the 80s in the valleys each day with mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations.

A warm front ahead of our late week system could result in some lingering showers across western areas Tuesday night. Lows will fall into the mid-50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
After a nice stretch of dry weather, the long term forecast period will feature a fairly wet pattern as a result of a large-scale, upper-level disturbance...

Wednesday should begin dry for many, outside a few isolated to scattered showers north and west of Albany, with weak upper ridging and adjacent surface high pressure remaining in control.
However, shower chances increase across eastern New York and western New England throughout the day Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge weakens and shifts east and an upper-level, closed low pressure system settles across the border of Manitoba and Ontario. Narrow, negatively-tilted troughing extending south and east through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes will abut the back side of the eastward- propagating ridge to create a southwest to northeast moisture axis from the Gulf of Mexico, increasing environmental moisture across the region.
Rain will gradually spread into the region from west- southwest to east-northeast by late Wednesday morning/early Wednesday afternoon as the upper low drifts south and east toward to upper Midwest.

Broad cyclonic flow will remain in place through the remainder of the extended forecast period as the low slowly slides south and east into the Great Lakes by Saturday. Multiple rounds of showers and possibly some thunderstorms will result from its influence across the region with the best chance for widespread rain likely spanning Wednesday night through Thursday. At this time, there is still some uncertainty in the extent and strength of any resultant thunderstorms throughout the end of the week and into the weekend due to uncertainty in amount of instability present across the region. Will continue to monitor the convective potential throughout the coming days.

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the long term period with highs anticipated in the mid 70s to low 80s. Thursday through Saturday, highs will generally be in the mid/upper 60s to mid/upper 70s with pockets of low 60s possible above 1500 ft.
Low temperatures will begin in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday night and Thursday night, falling to widespread 50s Friday night and Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region with sct-bkn cirrus clouds and light south to southeast winds. Through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours, flying conditions will remain VFR. Mid and high level clouds will continue to increase across the area as a weak disturbance approaches from the west. A few showers may try to spread towards the area this evening, but low levels are very dry, so won't mention any precip in the TAFs at this time, as any precip will be very spotty and very light. As a result, flying conditions should stay VFR into tonight with bkn cigs around 7-12 kft. Light south to southwest winds will eventually go calm or switch to the northwest by late in the overnight at light speeds.

On Monday, flying conditions will be VFR once again. Mid and high level clouds will decrease during the morning hours, with most sites only seeing sct cigs around 10-12 kft by the late morning hours.
Light north to northwest winds at 5 kts or less are expected through much of the day.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact
Slight Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

Albany
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Sun -- 01:50 AM EDT     5.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:36 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:15 PM EDT     4.65 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM EDT     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Castleton-on-Hudson
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Sun -- 01:33 AM EDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:58 PM EDT     4.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Albany, NY,