Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:22 PM Moonrise 3:29 PM   Moonset 2:06 AM

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GMZ656 Coastal Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From East Cape Sable To Chokoloskee Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Chokoloskee To Bonita Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 401 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm edt this evening through Tuesday morning - .
Tonight - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E se 5 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening. Tue - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except E 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 5 ft, occasionally to 6 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E 5 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Tue night - E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Wed - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt near shore - .except E 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt well offshore. Seas 2 ft or less near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the afternoon. Wed night - E ne winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near shore - .except E ne 15 to 20 kt well offshore. Seas 1 to 2 ft near shore and 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E ne 4 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - NEar shore, E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt. Well offshore, E winds 15 to 20 kt becoming around 10 kt in the evening. Seas less than 2 ft near shore and 2 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft well offshore. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 4 seconds. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the afternoon. Thu night - E winds 10 to 15 kt near shore - .except E 10 to 15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri and Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt near shore - . Except E se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and 2 to 3 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.Sat - E se winds 5 to 10 kt near shore - . Except E se 10 to 15 kt well offshore. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.Sat night - E se winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 0 to 1 foot near shore and around 2 ft well offshore. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Showers likely in the evening. A chance of tstms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.

GMZ600 314 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 17 2024
Synopsis - A moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly flow and building seas is anticipated through early Thursday morning. Winds will diminish by the beginning of the weekend.

FXUS62 KMFL 171819 AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 219 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of enhanced moisture on the leading edge of a westward moving low-mid level shortwave trough will move across southern and western sections of the area, mainly from the Miami area westward to Collier County. This area will continue to have the higher rain chances this afternoon, decreasing from east to west through the late afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts generally from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, with enough diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000 j/kg in the aforementioned areas. Drier air depicted in derived GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches)
over the Bahamas are poised to move over the southern Florida peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough this afternoon, leading to a mainly dry afternoon and evening over most areas. A rather tight pressure gradient from surface high pressure building from the western North Atlantic will lead to breezy east winds gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon and early this evening.

Mostly dry conditions are expected to begin Tuesday as the axis of the relatively dry air should be over South Florida. However, as the day progresses we expect moisture levels to increase ahead of a quick-moving low level trough embedded in the fresh easterly wind flow, with scattered west-moving showers and thunderstorms becoming more common during the second half of the day. Highest PoPs (50-60%)are in the Palm Beach County where the area of higher moisture values are expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon, with generally 30-40% PoPs elsewhere. Breezy east winds will continue, although perhaps slightly less so than today.

As far as temperatures go, went on the higher end of the NBM temperature distribution, with near 90 east coast and mid 90s west coast. Heat index values will approach 105F in the Naples area this afternoon. The presence of the drier air at least for the first half of tomorrow will lower heat index values slightly, although high temperatures should still range from near 90 east to the mid 90s western interior and Gulf coast.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Main feature to watch for the middle to end of the week will be a disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated with a surface trough. This feature has a low end chance of developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. The few ensemble members that do show a surface low developing later this week have it N/NE of our forecast area, but it will still be worth keeping an eye on. Regardless of development, an increase in moisture is expected across South FL late week into the weekend, which will bring higher chances of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast. Overall QPF totals over the next 7 days (1-2 inches)
aren't impressive for this time of year, but given wet antecedent conditions in place will need to monitor closely as any heavy rain over the urban areas may cause some issues.

High temperatures from mid week through the weekend will be around seasonal norms thanks to persistent easterly flow, ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain mild ranging from the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 close to the coasts.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Scattered SHRA mainly affecting MIA area terminals through 20z with brief MVFR ceilings and/or visibility, then potentially also affecting KAPF area through 00z. A few TSRA are possible over the interior through 00z, but too few in coverage to mention in TAFs.
VFR conditions will prevail after 00z and through the first half of the day on Tuesday. Winds 080-090 degrees 15g25 kt through 02z, then again gusting around 20 knots after 14z Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through mid-week will build seas to 5-7 feet over the Atlantic waters Tuesday night and Wednesday, and 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory will continue through Tuesday, and likely be extended through Wednesday. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the local waters, becoming more numerous Tuesday night and continuing through the remainder of the week.

BEACHES
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The moderate to fresh easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip currents at the Atlantic beaches for most of the rest of the week.
Surf will pick up to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday at the Palm Beach and Broward county beaches.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Miami 79 90 78 87 / 20 40 50 60 West Kendall 77 91 77 89 / 20 40 40 60 Opa-Locka 79 92 79 89 / 10 40 40 60 Homestead 79 89 79 87 / 20 40 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 80 89 79 86 / 10 50 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 90 79 87 / 10 50 40 60 Pembroke Pines 80 90 80 90 / 10 40 40 60 West Palm Beach 77 90 77 87 / 10 60 40 60 Boca Raton 79 90 78 87 / 10 50 50 60 Naples 76 94 77 92 / 10 40 30 60

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172- 173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651- 670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

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Marco
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:17 AM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:06 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Marco, Big Marco River, Florida, Tide feet

Naples (outer coast)
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Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:24 AM EDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:35 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:30 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:06 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Naples (outer coast), Florida, Tide feet

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