Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 9:07 PM Moonrise 2:28 AM   Moonset 3:56 PM

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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight - West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.Sunday - Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening - .then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less. Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
the water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.

LEZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 021002 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 602 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance of drizzle exists this morning. Weak shower activity will remain possible this afternoon and evening for much of Southeast Michigan.

- A warming trend continues Sunday and Monday with highs in the lower 80s expected Monday afternoon.

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and lasts through mid-week with periods of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION

A surface warm front has lifted through the airspace over the past several hours, veering winds to the south-southwest and drawing in an area of IFR ceilings. The primary band of rain showers has departed into Ontario with mid-level subsidence moving in aloft to support lowering inversion heights and trapped moisture below 2.0 kft for the morning. A slow-moving surface trough gradually drifts across the airspace to shift winds to the northwest this afternoon, with a general lifting/scattering trend to the cloud deck in its wake. Depending on how well cloud cover can scour out overnight, there is potential for radiation fog to drop vsbys to or below 1 SM Monday morning as winds calm overnight.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through this forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through at least this afternoon, low by this evening.

* Low confidence in cigs/vsby falling below 200 ft and/or 1/2 SM Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

DISCUSSION...

The back edge of a meridional plume of deep moisture is currently working eastward across Lower Michigan this morning. System relative isentropic ascent was fairly upright windily in the 00-06Z time window, but the most focused of warm advection lift has since moved off to the eastern Great Lakes. Currently, a fairly homogenized/barotropic air mass remains in place with forcing for lift relegated to weak deformation. The expectation is that while midlevel dry air will encroach from the west, low level moisture will hang around Southeast Michigan at least through mid morning hours. Regional mosaic radar shows a loss of returns, but the lingering saturation in the lowest 5.0 kft agl is expected to result in continued drizzle chances this morning.

The influx of midlevel dry air brings some question as to how widespread the coverage of opaque cloud will be today. A few breaks will allow diurnal heating to result in warm and humid conditions.
Surface dewpoints are forecasted to hold in the lower 60s today.
Forecast data is sending mixed signals as CAMS are resolving explicit convective activity but forecast soundings are convincing in static stability above 6.0 ft agl.Differential heating and lake boundary convergence boundaries are expected to be crisp enough to function as trigger mechanisms for shallow/low topped showers. The most likely time period for showers will be with a mature boundary layer in the 20-03Z window. Best focus may begin in the Thumb and along the I 69 corridor before moving southward as a lake breeze boundary backdoor into portions of northern Metro Detroit. Left the afternoon shower chances/rumble of thunder alone.

Much of Monday is expected to be quiet as a fairly pervasive anticyclonic influence holds over Lower Michigan and the warm advection response remains fairly disjointed. This changes for Monday night as the center of the main upper level ridge axis pushes east of Lower Michigan. Westerly return flow sets up and allows for remnant MCS activity to approach the state. There is varying agreement on the amount of QPF over the cwa, with the nam unquestionably the most bearish. The current forecast has a chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night which is sufficient. No strong thunderstorm activity is anticipated with poor lapse rates in the lowest 10.0 kft agl.

Relatively quiet conditions for Tuesday and downstream ridge amplification occurs over Southeast Michigan ahead of dynamic upper level jet packet digging through the northern Plains. Warm and humid conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon with heat indices well into the middle 80s. A total pattern overhaul is then in store for the middle and end of the week. Models have been very consistent in an abnormally strong low geopotential height anomaly becoming established over the Great Lakes. Timing the arrival of the main height fall response and absolute vorticity advection will be important in forecasting the strength of convection Wednesday.
Current data favors midday Wednesday. Cold advection will then surge build into the state. The current forecast reads lower to middle 70s for daytime highs at the end of the week, but appears ripe for future revisions.

MARINE...

A slow moving low pressure system will weaken as it advances toward southern Lake Huron today. The associated region of light rain will diminish as it exits east this morning. As the low pressure system weakens, high pressure will develop across the region tonight into Monday. Winds will generally remain light given the weak gradient across the eastern lakes. An approaching warm front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region on Tuesday.
Southeast wind gusts approaching 20 knots are possible as the gradient increases ahead of this front. The warm front will then be followed by a strong cold front on Wednesday, sustaining the chances for thunderstorms.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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