Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM   Moonset 3:41 PM

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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 114 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 830 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The forecast has been updated to account for the shower and thunderstorm activity moving into southern Val Verde county.
Otherwise, no significant changes have been made to the forecast.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The small mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) that generated some severe wind gusts that advanced into Edwards and Val Verde county has weakened. However, there has been some rejuvenated activity in association with the decaying complex. This and it's outflow could continue to help generate some rain showers and primarily weak convection this morning as activity advances towards the east and southeast. Activity should eventually dissipate. We'll then turn some attention to the middle to upper Texas coast and into the coastal plains as several HRRR CAM members try to develop possible convection within this area and send an outflow boundary northward into within portions of our CWA Inserted a low end (~20 percent)
chance for rain and storms across our eastern and northern most counties, including Travis and Williamson Counties, with this boundary. Any activity should wane heading into and through this evening. This evening could also see a very low end chance (~10 percent) for a cell to sneak once again into Val Verde county but latest CAMs have backed off a bit regarding this solution. If a storm is able to enter, it may be strong to severe with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards. SPC had maintained a level 1 to 2 risk for severe weather on latest Day 1 convective outlook across Val Verde county. Monday is forecast to stay rain free during the majority of the daytime hours but we'll monitor towards and west of the Rio Grande for any signs of developing cumulus and convection with approach toward and after sunset.

Above average temperatures persist while the airmass stays quite humid as well with the southeasterly low-level winds. Afternoon highs will top out in the low to mid 90s with primarily partly cloudy skies both today and again on Monday. The only exception occurs toward the Rio Grande where slightly drier air allows temperatures to top out in the upper 90s and above 100 degrees across those locations. Monday afternoon could see the peak heat indices briefly exceed 110 degrees in portions of the Rio Grande plains. Given the smallish geographic region and the values only briefly exceeding thresholds, Monday afternoon will likely trend more towards a Special Weather Statement (SPS) type day rather than the need for a Heat Advisory.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

There is a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms with a potential to be strong to severe Monday evening, though most models show nothing.

Mid level ridging begins to build over our area on Tuesday. The exception being the ECMWF that brings an impulse over our area resulting in one more day of slight shower and thunderstorm chances.
For now, will favor the consensus and leave mention out. All models show mid level ridging Wednesday through Friday, then weak westerly flow intrudes next weekend. Although temperatures become hotter, there remains some disagreement on how much dewpoints mix with daytime heating, as well, how much soil moisture dries. This in turn would impact temperatures. GFS is warmer since it mixes dewpoints lower, especially across western areas while the ECMWF is not as hot with less mixing of dewpoints with the CMC in between. Areas with the recent heaviest rains (Hill Country, Central Texas to along and east of I-35) have the highest soil moisture and will be slowest to mix dewpoints. Taking all this into account, parts of our area will likely reach Heat Advisory levels mid to late week as have trended temperatures toward the NBM while going lower with dewpoints out west.
With subsidence underneath the ridge, no convection is expected.
However, with the high heat and possibly a dryline intrusion, cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm each late afternoon into early evening.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Clouds continue to lift and VFR will return by 19Z at all sites. Some isolated convection remains possible this afternoon across portions of the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor. With coverage remaining very isolated, we will not mention any convection for the I-35 sites.
Farther west at DRT, some isolated convection may approach late this evening. With low confidence this activity makes it to DRT, we will also not mention any convection in the latest forecast. Otherwise, MVFR clouds return late this evening and continue through mid to late morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 92 77 94 78 / 20 10 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 76 94 77 / 20 10 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 77 98 77 / 20 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 89 75 91 75 / 20 10 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 81 103 80 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 75 92 76 / 20 10 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 97 77 99 76 / 10 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 76 95 76 / 20 0 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 78 91 78 / 20 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 78 97 78 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 97 79 99 79 / 10 10 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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