Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kimberling City, MO
June 2, 2024 11:36 AM CDT (16:36 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:11 AM Moonset 3:29 PM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 021110 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chance for thunderstorms (greater than 50%) are currently Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat remains marginal however a slight risk for excessive rainfall exists.
- A pattern change will occur late in the week with near normal temperatures and lower rain chances (less than 30 percent)
however confidence is low with the details of this pattern shift.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The upper level pattern was generally zonal across the CONUS right now however a few low amplitude shortwaves were moving through. A low level jet was analyzed across western Texas up into Kansas and Nebraska with a few thunderstorms across Kansas and Oklahoma. Surface high pressure axis was over the area creating stable conditions with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Patchy fog was developing in the river valleys as RH values were near 100%. Temps ranged from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s elsewhere.
Today: Through sunrise, expectations are for additional areas of light fog to develop across the area given the high RH, calm winds and clear skies. Widespread dense fog is not expected however a few areas may briefly drop below a mile. Thunderstorms across Kansas should weaken and dissipate as they approach the Missouri/Kansas border this morning given the stable/drier airmass overhead. 500-700mb height rises are expected today which should keep a lid on any thunderstorm development today.
While some high clouds will stream through, most areas will see plenty of sunshine with highs in the middle 80s. As winds begin to turn southeasterly, it will begin to advect in a reservoir of higher dewpoints (middle 60s) therefore it will begin to feel more humid/muggy by late in the day.
Tonight: As the low level jet increases across Kansas and Oklahoma, a complex of thunderstorms will develop near the Kansas/Nebraska border region. The HRRR and RAP both indicate a sizable instability gradient across eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma with much lower instability across our area.
Thunderstorm complexes typically will ride these instability gradients depending on the propagation vectors. If the thunderstorm complex can generate a strong enough cold pool then forward propagating vectors takes this towards northern Missouri and then slowly weakens given the lack of instability.
This scenario is shown by some guidance.
Other guidance suggests the cold pool will not be as strong and with Corfidi vectors pointing south, the complex may build more southerly, into the instability gradient across Kansas.
Therefore for the most part we expect this complex of storms to remain just outside of the area tonight with most locations dry.
Monday: Even higher dewpoints (upper 60s to near 70) will advect into the area creating a more unstable airmass. Either convective outflow or a remnant MCV may traverse the area during the day, this would be the lift needed for shower and thunderstorm development. ThetaE Diffs of 25-30K may be enough for a few instances of 50-60mph wind gusts with any storms that develop however this looks isolated at this time as wind shear will be quite weak (less than 25kts). Mean PW values from the HRRR indicate 1.4-1.6in returning to the area. Therefore this high of a moisture content combined with slower storm motions could create efficient rainfall producing storms with localized flooding. The overall coverage of rainfall on Monday is still in question therefore additional updates to pops are likely as we begin to see where the Sunday night/Monday morning MCS evolves.
High temps Monday will be dependent on clouds/precip. Going with NBM currently has highs in the lower 80s however if clouds/precip are more isolated than middle to upper 80s could transpire which will create a very muggy/humid day.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday Night through Tuesday: Models suggest some weak upper level energy may move through during this time, interacting with a low level jet. Much like during the day Monday, coverage of precip is highly uncertain which is leading to widespread 40-60 percent precip chances during this whole time period therefore additional updates are likely to these. Another humid day is expected with highs in the middle 80s with dewpoints near 70.
Tuesday Night into Wednesday: Overall a higher confidence time period as guidance suggests that a front will drop south into the area ahead of strong lift across the northern plains. This should lead to higher precip chances as the front comes through and the latest NBM does show about a 50-70% chance of at least a half inch of rainfall as the moves through. Not expecting much of a temperature change for Wednesday with highs again in the middle 80s.
Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles are in good agreement that a pattern shift will occur however there are significant differences in the details. Overall we are expecting a ridge to develop across the southwest US with a upper level low across the Great Lakes. If the upper low remains far enough to the northeast then the area will be warmer and drier (Continued middle 80s). If the upper low remains closer to the area then we could see higher precip chances and cooler conditions (highs in the upper 70s to around 80). Developing blocking patterns like these can be hard to pinpoint therefore will be watching the evolution of this as we go through the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Light MVFR fog will slowly erode to start the TAF period with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will begin to become more southeasterly today. Rain chances remain less than 20 percent at JLN and will not include in the TAF.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern into midweek with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chance for thunderstorms (greater than 50%) are currently Monday and Tuesday. Severe threat remains marginal however a slight risk for excessive rainfall exists.
- A pattern change will occur late in the week with near normal temperatures and lower rain chances (less than 30 percent)
however confidence is low with the details of this pattern shift.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The upper level pattern was generally zonal across the CONUS right now however a few low amplitude shortwaves were moving through. A low level jet was analyzed across western Texas up into Kansas and Nebraska with a few thunderstorms across Kansas and Oklahoma. Surface high pressure axis was over the area creating stable conditions with mostly clear skies and calm winds. Patchy fog was developing in the river valleys as RH values were near 100%. Temps ranged from the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks to the lower 60s elsewhere.
Today: Through sunrise, expectations are for additional areas of light fog to develop across the area given the high RH, calm winds and clear skies. Widespread dense fog is not expected however a few areas may briefly drop below a mile. Thunderstorms across Kansas should weaken and dissipate as they approach the Missouri/Kansas border this morning given the stable/drier airmass overhead. 500-700mb height rises are expected today which should keep a lid on any thunderstorm development today.
While some high clouds will stream through, most areas will see plenty of sunshine with highs in the middle 80s. As winds begin to turn southeasterly, it will begin to advect in a reservoir of higher dewpoints (middle 60s) therefore it will begin to feel more humid/muggy by late in the day.
Tonight: As the low level jet increases across Kansas and Oklahoma, a complex of thunderstorms will develop near the Kansas/Nebraska border region. The HRRR and RAP both indicate a sizable instability gradient across eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma with much lower instability across our area.
Thunderstorm complexes typically will ride these instability gradients depending on the propagation vectors. If the thunderstorm complex can generate a strong enough cold pool then forward propagating vectors takes this towards northern Missouri and then slowly weakens given the lack of instability.
This scenario is shown by some guidance.
Other guidance suggests the cold pool will not be as strong and with Corfidi vectors pointing south, the complex may build more southerly, into the instability gradient across Kansas.
Therefore for the most part we expect this complex of storms to remain just outside of the area tonight with most locations dry.
Monday: Even higher dewpoints (upper 60s to near 70) will advect into the area creating a more unstable airmass. Either convective outflow or a remnant MCV may traverse the area during the day, this would be the lift needed for shower and thunderstorm development. ThetaE Diffs of 25-30K may be enough for a few instances of 50-60mph wind gusts with any storms that develop however this looks isolated at this time as wind shear will be quite weak (less than 25kts). Mean PW values from the HRRR indicate 1.4-1.6in returning to the area. Therefore this high of a moisture content combined with slower storm motions could create efficient rainfall producing storms with localized flooding. The overall coverage of rainfall on Monday is still in question therefore additional updates to pops are likely as we begin to see where the Sunday night/Monday morning MCS evolves.
High temps Monday will be dependent on clouds/precip. Going with NBM currently has highs in the lower 80s however if clouds/precip are more isolated than middle to upper 80s could transpire which will create a very muggy/humid day.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Monday Night through Tuesday: Models suggest some weak upper level energy may move through during this time, interacting with a low level jet. Much like during the day Monday, coverage of precip is highly uncertain which is leading to widespread 40-60 percent precip chances during this whole time period therefore additional updates are likely to these. Another humid day is expected with highs in the middle 80s with dewpoints near 70.
Tuesday Night into Wednesday: Overall a higher confidence time period as guidance suggests that a front will drop south into the area ahead of strong lift across the northern plains. This should lead to higher precip chances as the front comes through and the latest NBM does show about a 50-70% chance of at least a half inch of rainfall as the moves through. Not expecting much of a temperature change for Wednesday with highs again in the middle 80s.
Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles are in good agreement that a pattern shift will occur however there are significant differences in the details. Overall we are expecting a ridge to develop across the southwest US with a upper level low across the Great Lakes. If the upper low remains far enough to the northeast then the area will be warmer and drier (Continued middle 80s). If the upper low remains closer to the area then we could see higher precip chances and cooler conditions (highs in the upper 70s to around 80). Developing blocking patterns like these can be hard to pinpoint therefore will be watching the evolution of this as we go through the week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Light MVFR fog will slowly erode to start the TAF period with VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will begin to become more southeasterly today. Rain chances remain less than 20 percent at JLN and will not include in the TAF.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFWB BRANSON WEST MUNI EMERSON FIELD,MO | 4 sm | 21 min | var 04 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 79°F | 68°F | 70% | 30.03 | |
| KBBG BRANSON,MO | 16 sm | 51 min | ESE 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 77°F | 68°F | 74% | 30.04 |
Springfield, MO,
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