Sunrise 5:33 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 3:55 PM

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FXUS64 KBMX 030101 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 801 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New SHORT TERM, AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 751 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Isolated to scattered convection was present over Central Alabama early this evening. The activity may produce a brief period of gusty winds and will diminish within a few hours. After midnight, southerly flow just off the surface will provide just enough lift for low cloud and fog development. Therefore, many areas will experience a cloudy and foggy early morning that will give way to partly cloudy skies by late morning.

75

Previous short-term discussion: (This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Central Alabama remains in a fairly moist and stagnant weather pattern through the short term period. A surface ridge is currently centered over the southwestern Atlantic with a weak southerly flow present across the Deep South. Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis has moved east over the Mid-Atlantic states with westerly flow aloft over much of the Southeast. Isentropic lift during the overnight hours produced widespread low stratus clouds, that are still hanging on as we approach midday for locations along the I-20 corridor. In the meantime, isolated to scattered showers with a few storms have developed this morning from leftover mesoscale boundary interactions. As daytime heating continues to increase through the afternoon, a few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds as SBCAPE increases to 2500-3000 J/kg with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, especially across western and southwestern portions of Central Alabama. Even though the storms will be pulse-like in nature, Effective Bulk Shear around 20 knots may keep updrafts going a little longer before they collapse. Due to a lack of organized forcing, storms should remain below severe limits, but wouldn't rule out the issuance of some Special Weather Statements with 40mph wind gusts later this afternoon.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight tonight as showers and storms diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low stratus clouds and fog development appears likely as ground conditions remain fairly wet. Areas with the best chance for fog will be across eastern and northeastern counties where clouds have hung on the longest into the afternoon with less time for sunshine to dry out the surface. We'll need to monitor observation trends through the evening for the potential of issuing a Dense Fog Advisory during the overnight hours.

Low clouds and fog will mix out through Monday morning, giving way to a very warm afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Only isolated showers and storms are currently in the forecast, as upper level ridging sets up over the region. The next upper level shortwave impulse to our west will pivot to the northeast, keeping most organized showers and storms well to our northwest through Monday evening. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees areawide.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Really not much of a change as we remain fairly active through Thursday. Timing has not improved any with the Friday and Saturday time in regards to the frontal passage. The good news is that the consensus of the models do push the front through the area and may provide us with some drier conditions for a couple of days.

16

Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

High pressure shifts to our east as weak upper level troughing pushes southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon on Tuesday with the best chances across the northwestern half of Central AL due to proximity of the shortwave. The main trough axis will slide through the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to increased rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially in the afternoons.

As we approach the end of the week, uncertainty increases on the evolution of the main upper trough as guidance has been pretty consistent in showing a frontal boundary pushing southward through Central AL. However, the timing of that frontal passage has been quite variable leading to low confidence in the forecast for Friday into Saturday. The details of when the front will push through Central AL and what that means in terms of thunderstorm activity will need to be worked out in coming days when model guidance comes into better agreement on the timing.

25/Owen

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Surface high pressure will be centered east of Central Alabama through Monday. Winds will be out of the south throughout. The pressure gradient does remain on the light side and therefore winds will generally be 5kts or less. Isolated to scattered convection will persist for another hour or so before diminishing after sunset. Expect isolated activity again on Monday afternoon.
Due to the southerly flow and high low level moisture, low ceilings and some fog are expected to develop after 08z. Some of the ceilings may drop to LIFR around 12z. The ceilings will lift and dissipate by 18z.

75

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today.
Generally light southerly winds will persist through Tuesday. RH values will remain above 50 for the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 65 87 65 88 / 20 20 20 40 Anniston 66 87 68 87 / 20 20 20 40 Birmingham 68 88 69 88 / 20 20 20 40 Tuscaloosa 69 89 70 88 / 30 20 20 40 Calera 68 87 69 87 / 30 20 20 40 Auburn 67 85 69 87 / 30 20 20 40 Montgomery 67 87 68 90 / 30 20 20 40 Troy 66 87 68 90 / 30 20 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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