Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:24 AM   Moonset 3:32 PM

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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 716 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers until early morning. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Mon night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 7 seconds. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 6 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 8 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 716 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia - High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will slowly move through on Friday, followed by high pressure.

FXUS62 KCHS 022000 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across the area through Wednesday. A cold front will slowly move through on Friday, followed by high pressure.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Afternoon composite analysis shows low amplitude troughiness across the southeast CONUS and hint of a short-wave circulation advancing through eastern Tennessee. Surface high pressure is well off the mid Atlantic coast with southerly moist return flow established across the region. As a result, axis of higher PWAT air has spread into the region over the last 24 hours...PWAT values nearing 1.5 inches this afternoon per satellite Total Precipitable Water product.

Strongest synoptic scale forcing resides well to our north per satellite enhanced IR/cooler cloud tops - ahead of the short- wave. But modest warm/moist advection across our region, background larger scale QG-forcing for ascent and daytime heating (MLCAPE values nearing 500 J/Kg) has/is producing some light showers mainly west of the I-95 corridor.

Tonight: Modest mid level troughiness will linger across the region. We lose the diurnal heating component and thus expect a diminishing trend to shower coverage this evening across our area, although persistent warm/moist advection might continue to generate some convection well inland through eastern Georgia into the SC midlands. Might also be some convection in the coastal waters, although veering low level winds/trajectories will eventually move it away from the coast. Low temperatures will largely dip into the middle to upper 60s with perhaps a few lower 60s in our cold spots. Warmer temperatures (lower 70s)
along the coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Monday: Weak ridging will be situated aloft, with a subtle short wave to pass near the Santee River in the afternoon. At the surface, high pressure is the main feature, although there might be the development of a weak lee side trough. There isn't as much of a cap per sounding data, so we will be able to some convection across the region. Lapse rates are only so-so, and MUCAPE is forecast to reach 1000-1500 J/kg. But given the sea breeze becoming more active, and upstream convection due to diurnal heating and the lee trough will produce scattered showers and t-storms. The greatest chances (50% PoPs) are near and west of I-95 in the afternoon when buoyancy is the best. Since DCAPE is in excess of 1000 J/kg and sounding do show an inverted-V trace, there would be a risk for some strong wind gusts where boundary interactions occur. Thus the severe risk is non- zero. The HRRR does show a 50% potential for more than 1 inch of rain late in the afternoon near and west of I-95. But other guidance has much less probabilities of that happening. 850 mb temperatures reach 15-16C, and will support max temperatures prior to convection hitting the mid and upper 80s. Evening convection quickly diminishes far inland, and the rest of Monday night looks to be rainfree.
Although winds do decouple, a south-southwest synoptic flow and higher dew points will limit lows to just 66-70F inland, several degrees warmer at and closer to the coast.

Tuesday: Ridging prevails aloft and the capping is better than on Monday. As a result we hold PoPs down to just 20/30%, driven mainly by the sea breeze and any mesoscale boundary interactions. DCAPE is again favorable for strong wind gusts in a few storms, but given poor lapse rates, the potential is less than on Monday. 850 mb temperatures climb about another 1C, leading to highs making it to the upper 80s and near 90F.

Wednesday: Surface ridging is a bit weaker, while aloft the flow becomes more zonal. There is also a short wave that is progged to move through, and with greater MUCAPE and slightly better lapse rates, this will lead to a higher chance of convection, as we show up to 50% probabilities. Temperatures aren't much different than Tuesday, with the slightly higher 850 mb temperatures negated by the higher rain chances.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
An anomalous upper low digs through the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday, then into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity during the weekend. That upper air pattern will likely send a cold front toward us late in the week, with model consensus showing that the cold front does indeed make it through for the weekend. That's difficult to do this time of year, but guidance has been consistent on that happening, so we maintain that forecast. There is a decent short wave that passes through Thursday, leading to at least scattered coverage, then less activity with the approaching front Friday due to better capping, and then little to no chance for Saturday and Sunday if there actually is the passage of the cold front prior to then. Every day will be well above climo, mainly in the lower to perhaps mid 90s, the combination of warm advection and compressional heating in advance of the cold front, the due to an offshore flow in its wake. Some heat indices will be near or above 100F Thursday and Friday, but not enough for any Heat Advisories.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Outside of any convection, conditions will be VFR through the period.

MARINE
Tonight: SE to SSE flow will prevail across the local waters, with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range. The strongest winds will likely be along the land/sea interface through early evening and gusts up to around 20 knots will be possible. Seas will average 2-3 feet.

Monday through Friday night: High pressure is the main weather feature through the week, until a cold front approaches late in the period. Winds will be mainly S or SW at 15 kt or less the entire time, with seas no more than 2 or 3 feet. Of course in any convection the winds and seas can be briefly higher. We're into the early part of our local waterspout season, so this will be something that we'll need to starting watching for.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Due to tides running as much as 0.5 to 1.0 ft MLLW above predicted levels, and increasing astronomical influences, there is the risk for minor coastal flooding starting Monday evening. The risk is greatest over coastal sections of Charleston and Colleton County through the week. The latest TWL forecast for Charleston Harbor shows 7.0 ft MLLW Monday evening, 7.1 ft MLLW Tuesday evening, and 7.3 ft MLLW Wednesday evening. As a result, Coastal Flood Advisories are likely. The highest during that time at Fort Pulaski is 9.3 ft MLLW Wednesday evening.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Dog Hammock
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Sun -- 03:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:28 AM EDT     7.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:42 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:01 PM EDT     8.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dog Hammock, Sapelo River, Georgia, Tide feet

Harris Neck
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:49 AM EDT     7.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:52 AM EDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:22 PM EDT     8.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Harris Neck, Barbour Island River, Georgia, Tide feet

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