Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:23 AM   Moonset 3:34 PM

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FXUS62 KCAE 021904 AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week. This will support isolated to scattered convection mainly in the afternoons and evenings. A cold front will approach the region late in the week leading to increasing rain chances and a chance for severe weather. Temperatures will be near or above normal through the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken clouds across the area this afternoon. Radar continues to detect some rain showers across the region, generally light to moderate in intensity, with ground sites generally reporting a few hundredths up to a few tenths of an inch of accumulation. Shower development along with isolated thunderstorms (lightning has been detected across northeast GA) will continue to be supported by a few shortwaves moving through the flow this afternoon. Warm air advection and some solar insolation has warmed temperatures into the upper 70s and a few low 80s, and dewpoints are higher than yesterday in the low to mid 60s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates this has generated 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in an uncapped environment, so still think there is a chance for some thunder this afternoon. However, organized convection is not expected with a lack of wind shear. Additionally, DCAPE values are less than 500 J/kg with a saturated column and PW values of 1.4"- 1.6". Poor lapse rates are also working against convective development, so despite some upper level support from a passing shortwave, most of the activity is likely to be diurnally driven and should wane with loss of heating.

Rain chances decrease tonight as the high moves further offshore along with the upper level trough. This will put us under northwest flow aloft for a period of time. Residual low level moisture may allow for a stratus deck to persist, which will keep temperatures mild with lows likely in the mid 60s once again.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
High pressure offshore will promote weak southerly flow across the region. As an upper trough moves offshore through the early portion of the day, the deeper moisture appears to shift east of the forecast area. However PWAT values should still be around 1.5 inches supporting afternoon convection. Southerly or SE low level flow along the coast will allow a sea-breeze boundary to move inland through the day which may serve as the trigger for convection in eastern portions of the forecast area. Daytime heating will allow the airmass to become conditionally unstable with sbCAPE values likely between 750 to 1500 J/kg. The threat of severe weather is low however. CAPE profiles are tall and skinny with low LI values indicating limited updraft strength.
Warm air aloft moves into the area during the evening working to suppress convection along with loss of heating. Lows near normal values in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Upper level ridging will be over the region from Tuesday into early Wednesday. This will work to induce a mid-level capping inversion hindering convective development. Convection on Tuesday should remain isolated to widely scattered despite a seasonal warm, moist airmass.

Global ensemble mean 500mb heights flatten the ridge mid-week as an upper trough digs into the Upper Midwest. SW flow over the Southeast strengthens in response pushing PWAT values above 1.5 inches to possibly near 2 inches. At the surface, a cold front is expected to drop from the Ohio Valley southwest into the Mississippi valley on Thursday. Warm, moist advection ahead of the front will increase rainfall chances mid to late week when the front moves through the area. Above normal moisture, increased shear and moderate instability with shortwave activity poses some risk for severe weather from Wednesday to Friday.
Drier air will move into the region behind the front for the end of the long term, but temperatures won't cool much with highs still around normal.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Extensive cloud cover remains over the region with scattered light showers moving from southwest to northeast. A few showers may become moderate to strong this afternoon, and lightning has been observed west of the terminals. So while thunder is not currently in the TAFs, there is a chance for an isolated strike or two this afternoon or early this evening. Brief CIG/VSBY restrictions are possible, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Precip chances move east of the terminals late tonight, or around 03/03z. Surface winds are expected to generally be SLY/SELY at 8-10 kts with a few gusts to 15 kts this afternoon, decreasing to light and variable overnight. Winds on Monday should be out of the southwest at less than 10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday with intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None.
GA...None.

Bacon Bridge
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Sun -- 02:29 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:45 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bacon Bridge, Ashley River, South Carolina, Tide feet

Canaday Landing
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Sun -- 03:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:35 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:11 AM EDT     0.90 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:53 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM EDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Canaday Landing, south of, Edisto River, South Carolina, Tide feet

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Columbia, SC,