Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Payne Springs, TX
June 2, 2024 3:33 PM CDT (20:33 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 2:25 AM Moonset 3:35 PM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 021944 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ Update:
Quick update to substantially raise PoPs across the northern 1/3 of the CWA based on recent radar trends. Cluster of thunderstorms off to the northwest has become much better organized and has a substantial pool of strong instability to work with downstream.
These storms should organize into a small complex and move across North Texas through the evening hours. This update will also expand the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to include the Metroplex and another row of counties to the south. We'll have to assess further the impacts this round of storms will have on overnight storm chances and that will be done a little later this evening.
Dunn
Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Monday Night/
The period of active weather continues across North Texas with thunderstorm chances increasing this afternoon and overnight.
Currently, an increasingly organized cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of southwest Oklahoma with individual storms moving off to the northeast. The entire cluster of storms is drifting east-southeast with time and will likely spread into parts of North Texas through the afternoon. This activity developed along a well defined moisture axis early this morning and has continued to strengthen along a differential heating boundary through midday. As thicker low cloud cover has scattered out across the region, strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid 70s yields around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and this will likely increase further into the afternoon. While the parameter space is becoming increasingly favorable, visible satellite imagery still shows generally flat CU across North Texas at this time suggesting that additional storm development is still a little ways off.
Minimal convective inhibition should allow this to occur rather quickly though as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. For the remainder of this afternoon, we've raised PoPs to around 40% for most areas along and north of I-20. Convection should be scattered, but semi-organized clusters could evolve with time enhancing the potential for severe wind gusts in addition to a severe hail threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for parts of North Texas to account for this threat.
This initial wave of convection should move east with time and we'll turn attention back to the west this evening. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement with additional thunderstorm development across West Texas and the Panhandle along the dryline late this evening, however, we'll have to see what impact this current complex has on the instability off to our northwest. If it wipes out much of the instability, then the likelihood of another complex traveling over the same area late tonight would be considerably lower than currently advertised in the model guidance. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and see what kind of late afternoon recovery we get before increasing confidence in overnight thunderstorm activity. For now, we'll maintain 40-60% overnight PoPs generally along and north of I-20, but these could go either significantly lower or higher depending on what happens over the next several hours. If another complex does develop and spread east with time, it would be accompanied by a damaging wind threat along with a continued heavy rainfall threat.
For Monday, any early morning activity would be exiting the region to the east with limited recovery for additional thunderstorms until late afternoon. We'll have PoPs at 20% areawide late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.
Dunn
LONG TERM
/NEW/ Update:
No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain representative of the period overall, with the most recent data only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast.
The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday morning where another complex could push through portions of North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days.
As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar, satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates.
Reeves
Previous Discussion: /Monday through Next Weekend/
After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid- to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.
Monday's daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As we've seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!
An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday- Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.
Sanchez
AVIATION
/Issued 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ /18Z TAFs/
Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vis have scattered out over the last hour and VFR prevails across most of N TX at this hour. This will continue through the afternoon with the main concern being convective potential. We should see an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and will continue with a VCTS for now with timing likely best in the 20-22Z timeframe. Additional thunderstorms are expected overnight, but this may become dependent upon the ongoing complex to our north and west. We'll continue to advertise TS overnight and monitor for additional adjustments. Another round of at least MVFR cigs are expected although model guidance is particularly aggressive on IFR/LIFR. This seems unlikely based on convective forecast trends and will forego showing cigs/vis that low at this time. If overnight convection does not materialize, then the probability of lower cigs/vis would increase.
Dunn
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 89 75 93 76 / 40 20 20 5 10 Waco 74 89 74 93 75 / 20 20 20 5 5 Paris 70 86 71 87 74 / 90 30 20 10 20 Denton 71 88 73 92 74 / 50 20 20 5 10 McKinney 71 87 73 90 75 / 50 20 20 5 20 Dallas 73 89 74 93 76 / 40 20 20 5 10 Terrell 71 88 73 91 75 / 50 20 20 5 10 Corsicana 74 89 76 92 77 / 30 20 20 5 5 Temple 74 90 75 93 75 / 20 20 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 71 91 73 94 74 / 40 20 10 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
New Long Term
SHORT TERM
/Issued 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ Update:
Quick update to substantially raise PoPs across the northern 1/3 of the CWA based on recent radar trends. Cluster of thunderstorms off to the northwest has become much better organized and has a substantial pool of strong instability to work with downstream.
These storms should organize into a small complex and move across North Texas through the evening hours. This update will also expand the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to include the Metroplex and another row of counties to the south. We'll have to assess further the impacts this round of storms will have on overnight storm chances and that will be done a little later this evening.
Dunn
Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Monday Night/
The period of active weather continues across North Texas with thunderstorm chances increasing this afternoon and overnight.
Currently, an increasingly organized cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of southwest Oklahoma with individual storms moving off to the northeast. The entire cluster of storms is drifting east-southeast with time and will likely spread into parts of North Texas through the afternoon. This activity developed along a well defined moisture axis early this morning and has continued to strengthen along a differential heating boundary through midday. As thicker low cloud cover has scattered out across the region, strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid 70s yields around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and this will likely increase further into the afternoon. While the parameter space is becoming increasingly favorable, visible satellite imagery still shows generally flat CU across North Texas at this time suggesting that additional storm development is still a little ways off.
Minimal convective inhibition should allow this to occur rather quickly though as temperatures climb into the mid/upper 80s. For the remainder of this afternoon, we've raised PoPs to around 40% for most areas along and north of I-20. Convection should be scattered, but semi-organized clusters could evolve with time enhancing the potential for severe wind gusts in addition to a severe hail threat. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for parts of North Texas to account for this threat.
This initial wave of convection should move east with time and we'll turn attention back to the west this evening. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement with additional thunderstorm development across West Texas and the Panhandle along the dryline late this evening, however, we'll have to see what impact this current complex has on the instability off to our northwest. If it wipes out much of the instability, then the likelihood of another complex traveling over the same area late tonight would be considerably lower than currently advertised in the model guidance. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and see what kind of late afternoon recovery we get before increasing confidence in overnight thunderstorm activity. For now, we'll maintain 40-60% overnight PoPs generally along and north of I-20, but these could go either significantly lower or higher depending on what happens over the next several hours. If another complex does develop and spread east with time, it would be accompanied by a damaging wind threat along with a continued heavy rainfall threat.
For Monday, any early morning activity would be exiting the region to the east with limited recovery for additional thunderstorms until late afternoon. We'll have PoPs at 20% areawide late Monday afternoon into the evening hours.
Dunn
LONG TERM
/NEW/ Update:
No major changes were made with this latest long term forecast update. Trends mentioned in the previous discussion below remain representative of the period overall, with the most recent data only necessitating a few minor tweaks/refinements to the forecast.
The main talking point for the remainder of the week will be the return of seasonable heat with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints lingering in the 70s. This will result in a few locations through the middle of the week reaching heat index values around 105 degrees. As far as storm potential goes, there continues to be a low chance for intermittent showers and storms through the week into next weekend. While most will remain dry, a couple of isolated storms will be possible - especially on Tuesday morning where another complex could push through portions of North Texas along the Red River. A low chance for storms will remain through the end of the week as a weak cold front pushes into the region. Most of this activity will also depend on the placement of remnant outflow boundaries through the coming days.
As mentioned before, a lot of this will depend on real-time radar, satellite, and surface observations. Overall confidence in coverage, extent, and timing of any convective activity remains quite low as well, so continue to check back for updates.
Reeves
Previous Discussion: /Monday through Next Weekend/
After a very wet and stormy May, it looks like the summer weather will make the headlines this week. As storm chances decrease mid- to-late week, the heat will take the lead with widespread highs in the 90s. With plenty of humidity in place, we will also see heat indices in the 99-105 range Tuesday through Thursday.
Monday's daytime storm chances will highly depend on what happens with the MCS coming south from Oklahoma late Sunday night. As we've seen with the recent storm systems, not only they have steadily tracked into North Texas during the morning, but also have left surface boundaries that have triggered convection in the afternoon. While it is difficult to pinpoint where these storms will track/develop, at this time it appears everyone but the far western zones will have at least a low chance for storms Monday afternoon and evening. The threat for severe weather will exist with any of these storms with damaging winds and hail as the main threats. Some storms may also produce brief heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding. Storm chances should decrease Monday night, but we will continue to monitor the potential for another complex traveling south into our area Tuesday morning.
Make sure to keep checking back the forecast for updates!
An upper ridge centered over Mexico and southern Texas is expected to shift northward during the mid week period (Tuesday- Thursday), spreading some its subsidence across the region. While a mainly dry period will prevail for most of us, a few locations may see some diurnally driven showers/storms Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence remains low to mention it in the forecast at this time. Beyond that, latest guidance continue to highlight a weak surface front moving southward late Thursday which may bring low rain chances along the Red River into Friday. Northwest flow aloft may also return next weekend and with that the potential for additional rounds of isolated to scattered storms.
Sanchez
AVIATION
/Issued 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024/ /18Z TAFs/
Widespread IFR/LIFR cigs/vis have scattered out over the last hour and VFR prevails across most of N TX at this hour. This will continue through the afternoon with the main concern being convective potential. We should see an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and will continue with a VCTS for now with timing likely best in the 20-22Z timeframe. Additional thunderstorms are expected overnight, but this may become dependent upon the ongoing complex to our north and west. We'll continue to advertise TS overnight and monitor for additional adjustments. Another round of at least MVFR cigs are expected although model guidance is particularly aggressive on IFR/LIFR. This seems unlikely based on convective forecast trends and will forego showing cigs/vis that low at this time. If overnight convection does not materialize, then the probability of lower cigs/vis would increase.
Dunn
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 89 75 93 76 / 40 20 20 5 10 Waco 74 89 74 93 75 / 20 20 20 5 5 Paris 70 86 71 87 74 / 90 30 20 10 20 Denton 71 88 73 92 74 / 50 20 20 5 10 McKinney 71 87 73 90 75 / 50 20 20 5 20 Dallas 73 89 74 93 76 / 40 20 20 5 10 Terrell 71 88 73 91 75 / 50 20 20 5 10 Corsicana 74 89 76 92 77 / 30 20 20 5 5 Temple 74 90 75 93 75 / 20 20 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 71 91 73 94 74 / 40 20 10 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCRS C DAVID CAMPBELL FIELDCORSICANA MUNI,TX | 24 sm | 40 min | SSE 11 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 90°F | 75°F | 63% | 29.88 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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