Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wilroads Gardens, KS
June 2, 2024 11:53 AM CDT (16:53 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:17 AM Sunset 8:58 PM Moonrise 2:37 AM Moonset 3:57 PM |
Area Discussion for - Dodge City, KS
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FXUS63 KDDC 021609 AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1109 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong south winds are expected after 10 am Sunday, gusting to near 40 mph.
- More scattered thunderstorms are expected after 4 pm Sunday.
Some of these storms are expected to be severe, with large hail and damaging winds.
- More summer-like weather is expected this week, with warm to hot afternoons, and little if any chance of rainfall.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted an impressive MCS (mesoscale convective system) along the KS/OK border, moving southeast into Oklahoma. The airmass over SW KS has been strongly overturned by prior convection, but additional showers and storms will likely percolate through sunrise favoring the southern zones. With elevated moist, south/southeast winds, many locations will remain above 60 through sunrise Sunday.
Under modest westerly midlevel flow Sunday, lee cyclogenesis will deepen to near 994 mb over eastern Colorado through the afternoon. Once convective debris clouds clear and mixing commences after 10 am, strong south winds are expected through the afternoon. With 850 mb winds near 30 kts, south winds of 20-30 mph will be common, with gusts near 40 mph. Increased wind grids to the 90%ile of the NBM. With the efficient boundary layer mixing, and a net warming of 2-4C at 850 mb, lower 90s will be common at peak heating. Models also show several degrees of warming at 700 mb, with the 00z NAM as warm as +14C at DDC at 7 pm Sunday. Given the strength of this capping inversion, NAM is resistant to developing convection in the DDC CWA through 7 pm. The dryline is expected to be in the vicinity of, or just east of, the CO/KS line at peak heating, with dewpoints in the 60s supporting strong to extreme instability, with MU CAPE as high as 5000 J/kg. Many CAMs and other models are a few degrees cooler at 700 mb, and thus allow thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of US 83 in the 4-7 pm time range. 00z ARW suggests several supercells may evolve and translate eastward Sunday 7-10 pm, and given the sufficient bulk shear and high instability, large hail appears probable from any convection. After coordinating with SPC, an upgrade in severe wind/hail probability is warranted for Sunday. Hail 2-3 inches in diameter is expected from the most sustained supercells, especially early in the event, in the 5-7 pm time range. All of this stated, forcing for ascent to trigger convective initiation in this high octane environment east of the dryline is subtle, with no obvious shortwaves present, so only a few supercells may result. As such, kept pops in the conservative chance category of 30-40% for now.
Southeast winds and continued moisture advection east of the dryline will result in another warm morning sunrise Monday, with many locations remaining above 60 degrees.
Modest westerly midlevel flow continues Monday, but models prog pressure gradients to be much weaker, with much less wind expected.
00z models continue to show a moist, highly unstable environment over the central and eastern zones Monday afternoon/evening, but again forcing is weak and nebulous. Model consensus is the southeast and eastern zones will be favored for any thunderstorms at peak heating Monday, but coverage may be very low, so pops are necessarily very low as well. Any updraft that can mature Monday will have access to extreme instability once again, with CAPE > 4000 J/kg, with very large hail the primary risk. Afternoon air temperatures in the lower 90s are again expected, which will combine with dewpoints in the upper 60s to produce heat indices well into the 90s across southeast zones.
Apparent temperature grids show a heat index near 100 across Barber county 4 pm Monday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
We have arrived in meteorological summer, and the models suggest a synoptic pattern evolution reflecting that, through the upcoming week. The northern branch of the jet stream will be increasingly prominent by Tuesday, with a strong shortwave trough progressing through the northern plains and the Canadian prairies. A weak northerly wind shift will result Tuesday, but with no impact on afternoon temperatures, remaining in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Low chance pops for the eastern zones from the NBM were retained Tuesday, but the majority of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal boundary are expected to remain east of SW KS. 00z EPS ensemble members show this trend, with only a 10-30% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch east of US 283 Tuesday, and near 0% west of US 283. A fancy way to say most of us are going to remain dry.
Starting Wednesday, the large strong subtropical midlevel high that has been baking Mexico the past few weeks will begins its annual advance northward. Model consensus places a 592 dm upper high center over New Mexico 7 pm Wednesday. Medium range models show strong height/thickness increases; expect Wednesday afternoon temperatures to surge into the mid 90s. Of course, rain chances will dwindle to zero at this point in the strongly subsident regime. The atmosphere warms even more Thursday, with 500 mb heights in the 590-592 dm range over SW KS. However, models are in good agreement with another weak cold frontal boundary supplying an easterly wind component Thursday afternoon, which will keep the heat restrained to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Some guidance suggests some elevated thunderstorms north of this boundary Thursday night (slight chance pops from the NBM), but guidance consistency and thus confidence is very low.
Long range models do show the high pressure ridge weakening and retreating southward next weekend. NBM's cooling trend and uptick in pops in the far extended, for next weekend, were accepted.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main focus on the TAFs is another complex of thunderstorms developing across the region and moving across the terminals tonight in the 23Z to 03Z timeframe, give or take an hour. Will include VCTS and CB groups in for the terminals to account for this activity. Wind gusts +50 kt cannot be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However, it is too early and a bit uncertain to put these outflow winds in the TAFs for now. Will watch and amend as needed once confidence increases. Some GR may be possible as well, particularly for KGCK and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt out side of storms.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1109 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Strong south winds are expected after 10 am Sunday, gusting to near 40 mph.
- More scattered thunderstorms are expected after 4 pm Sunday.
Some of these storms are expected to be severe, with large hail and damaging winds.
- More summer-like weather is expected this week, with warm to hot afternoons, and little if any chance of rainfall.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted an impressive MCS (mesoscale convective system) along the KS/OK border, moving southeast into Oklahoma. The airmass over SW KS has been strongly overturned by prior convection, but additional showers and storms will likely percolate through sunrise favoring the southern zones. With elevated moist, south/southeast winds, many locations will remain above 60 through sunrise Sunday.
Under modest westerly midlevel flow Sunday, lee cyclogenesis will deepen to near 994 mb over eastern Colorado through the afternoon. Once convective debris clouds clear and mixing commences after 10 am, strong south winds are expected through the afternoon. With 850 mb winds near 30 kts, south winds of 20-30 mph will be common, with gusts near 40 mph. Increased wind grids to the 90%ile of the NBM. With the efficient boundary layer mixing, and a net warming of 2-4C at 850 mb, lower 90s will be common at peak heating. Models also show several degrees of warming at 700 mb, with the 00z NAM as warm as +14C at DDC at 7 pm Sunday. Given the strength of this capping inversion, NAM is resistant to developing convection in the DDC CWA through 7 pm. The dryline is expected to be in the vicinity of, or just east of, the CO/KS line at peak heating, with dewpoints in the 60s supporting strong to extreme instability, with MU CAPE as high as 5000 J/kg. Many CAMs and other models are a few degrees cooler at 700 mb, and thus allow thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of US 83 in the 4-7 pm time range. 00z ARW suggests several supercells may evolve and translate eastward Sunday 7-10 pm, and given the sufficient bulk shear and high instability, large hail appears probable from any convection. After coordinating with SPC, an upgrade in severe wind/hail probability is warranted for Sunday. Hail 2-3 inches in diameter is expected from the most sustained supercells, especially early in the event, in the 5-7 pm time range. All of this stated, forcing for ascent to trigger convective initiation in this high octane environment east of the dryline is subtle, with no obvious shortwaves present, so only a few supercells may result. As such, kept pops in the conservative chance category of 30-40% for now.
Southeast winds and continued moisture advection east of the dryline will result in another warm morning sunrise Monday, with many locations remaining above 60 degrees.
Modest westerly midlevel flow continues Monday, but models prog pressure gradients to be much weaker, with much less wind expected.
00z models continue to show a moist, highly unstable environment over the central and eastern zones Monday afternoon/evening, but again forcing is weak and nebulous. Model consensus is the southeast and eastern zones will be favored for any thunderstorms at peak heating Monday, but coverage may be very low, so pops are necessarily very low as well. Any updraft that can mature Monday will have access to extreme instability once again, with CAPE > 4000 J/kg, with very large hail the primary risk. Afternoon air temperatures in the lower 90s are again expected, which will combine with dewpoints in the upper 60s to produce heat indices well into the 90s across southeast zones.
Apparent temperature grids show a heat index near 100 across Barber county 4 pm Monday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
We have arrived in meteorological summer, and the models suggest a synoptic pattern evolution reflecting that, through the upcoming week. The northern branch of the jet stream will be increasingly prominent by Tuesday, with a strong shortwave trough progressing through the northern plains and the Canadian prairies. A weak northerly wind shift will result Tuesday, but with no impact on afternoon temperatures, remaining in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Low chance pops for the eastern zones from the NBM were retained Tuesday, but the majority of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal boundary are expected to remain east of SW KS. 00z EPS ensemble members show this trend, with only a 10-30% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch east of US 283 Tuesday, and near 0% west of US 283. A fancy way to say most of us are going to remain dry.
Starting Wednesday, the large strong subtropical midlevel high that has been baking Mexico the past few weeks will begins its annual advance northward. Model consensus places a 592 dm upper high center over New Mexico 7 pm Wednesday. Medium range models show strong height/thickness increases; expect Wednesday afternoon temperatures to surge into the mid 90s. Of course, rain chances will dwindle to zero at this point in the strongly subsident regime. The atmosphere warms even more Thursday, with 500 mb heights in the 590-592 dm range over SW KS. However, models are in good agreement with another weak cold frontal boundary supplying an easterly wind component Thursday afternoon, which will keep the heat restrained to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Some guidance suggests some elevated thunderstorms north of this boundary Thursday night (slight chance pops from the NBM), but guidance consistency and thus confidence is very low.
Long range models do show the high pressure ridge weakening and retreating southward next weekend. NBM's cooling trend and uptick in pops in the far extended, for next weekend, were accepted.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main focus on the TAFs is another complex of thunderstorms developing across the region and moving across the terminals tonight in the 23Z to 03Z timeframe, give or take an hour. Will include VCTS and CB groups in for the terminals to account for this activity. Wind gusts +50 kt cannot be ruled out with the strongest of cells. However, it is too early and a bit uncertain to put these outflow winds in the TAFs for now. Will watch and amend as needed once confidence increases. Some GR may be possible as well, particularly for KGCK and KLBL. Winds will be SE/S 10-20 kt out side of storms.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDDC DODGE CITY RGNL,KS | 8 sm | 61 min | SE 11 | 9 sm | Clear | 70°F | 59°F | 69% | 29.90 |
Dodge City, KS,
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