Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 12:24 AM   Moonset 11:09 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 290818 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 318 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1144 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ /Today Into Thursday/

The wet and at times, stormy episodes will continue with occasional periods of severe weather. Though it won't be constant, there will be occasional episodes of weather between mid morning tomorrow through early afternoon, with more isolated coverage this evening, then another complex arriving later Thursday morning. Granted, CAMs are struggling and nowhere in agreement in this northwest flow aloft regime with a moisture rich atmosphere in place. Confidence isn't high on timing and/or coverage of convective events through Thursday, so we'll just have to fine tune these forecasts as we move through the period. In addition, these successive periods of storms will only increase the flooding threat, including mainstem rivers and tributaries across the area along with isolated instances of flash flooding.

On the positive side of things (if there is one), the extensive cloud cover and rain and storms will keep humidity levels more at seasonal norms and high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s into the 80s, versus the 90s to near 100 degrees like last week.
Lows will continue between 65 and 75 degrees.

05/Marty

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Thursday Night Onward/

Thunderstorms generated by a slow-moving shortwave over the Plains will trek east across North Texas Thursday night, some of which may pose a wind and hail threat. Activity should exit to the east around or shortly after daybreak Friday. Additional storms are expected to develop as the atmosphere destabilizes Friday afternoon within the northwest flow on the back edge of the aforementioned shortwave. It is uncertain exactly where these storms will develop, as mesoscale boundaries may be the primary focus for development. The most likely scenario at this time looks like convection may initiate just northwest of the region during peak heating, in the vicinity of a surface low associated with a remnant front. These storms would likely grow upscale as they work their way southeast through North Texas Friday evening.
Damaging winds would be the main threat if a good cold pool can develop, with large hail also being possible. The tornado threat would be low, but a spin-up tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Northwest flow will remain overhead through the weekend as a mid level ridge holds strong over Mexico. A weak disturbance aloft will help ignite thunderstorms along the dryline Saturday afternoon and evening. The dryline and convective initiation would be well west of the region, likely somewhere near or west of a line from Lubbock to San Angelo. These storms would not arrive until around midnight across the western-most counties, and would initially contain a threat for hail and damaging winds. Activity would then weaken during the overnight hours as it crosses the I-35 corridor. Storms may fall apart Sunday morning with the loss of the low level jet, but additional storms would then be possible east of I-35 Sunday afternoon in the vicinity of residual outflow produced by the overnight activity. The Sunday convection would dissipate fairly quickly Sunday night as a strong capping inversion develops. A few storms may be capable of downburst winds and hail, but the overall severe threat appears fairly low at this time.

After a brief lull, another round of thunderstorms looks likely Monday afternoon and evening as the next shortwave dives southeast across the Southern Plains. By this point we will be into the first week of June, and it is not too surprising that the northwest flow pattern will continue to be unsettled through much of next week with an MCS or two likely surging south across the Red River. Will fine tune the timing and projected intensity of these systems this weekend or early next week.

30

AVIATION
/Issued 1144 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024/ /06z TAFs/

Timing rounds of TSRA/SHRA and MVFR cigs continues to be the primary challenges with only minor tweaks to timing of both from the 00z/03z TAF set.

The first round before 09z was changed to SHRA from TSRA as the atmosphere across the DFW Metro Airports remains worked over, but will maintain TSRA at Waco by 07z/08z. Next round was delayed 2-3 hours to 13z-14z per latest high-resolution models before occurring again by 03z this evening. Confidence is not high on timing beyond 19z, so expect more adjustments.

MVFR cigs should occur once the first weak complex of rain passes through, then go VFR after 18z and beyond. E/SE winds 5-10 kts will prevail throughout.

05/


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 70 83 71 82 / 60 40 60 50 60 Waco 84 73 84 71 84 / 60 30 50 40 70 Paris 82 68 81 67 78 / 60 40 60 40 70 Denton 82 68 82 68 81 / 60 50 60 60 70 McKinney 82 69 82 68 79 / 50 40 60 50 70 Dallas 84 70 84 70 82 / 60 40 60 50 60 Terrell 83 71 83 69 81 / 60 30 50 50 70 Corsicana 85 72 84 73 84 / 70 30 50 40 70 Temple 85 73 86 72 85 / 60 30 40 40 60 Mineral Wells 83 70 84 69 82 / 70 50 40 60 60

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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