Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 2:45 AM   Moonset 3:51 PM

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GMZ636 Expires:202406030815;;328786 Fzus54 Kmob 022000 Cwfmob
coastal waters forecast national weather service mobile al 300 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
gulf coastal waters okaloosa walton county line to pascagoula out 60 nm
seas are given as significant wave height - .which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.
gmz635-636-030815- western choctawhatchee bay-eastern choctawhatchee bay- 300 pm cdt Sun jun 2 2024
Tonight - South winds around 5 knots early this evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Monday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Waves 1 foot or less. Smooth.Wednesday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Thursday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - West winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ600 300 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Synopsis - A light onshore flow prevails through midweek and then shifts westerly late in the week.

FXUS62 KTAE 021916 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 316 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday will likely have slightly less shower and thunderstorm coverage compared to Sunday, as any perturbations in the mid and upper levels look to be far enough removed from the region, that upper level forcing for ascent will be minimal. This means that most storms will develop off of the more typical summer time diurnally- driven sea breeze circulation. Showers and thunderstorms offshore in the early morning hours Monday will eventually dissipate before enough diurnal heating allows for the sea breeze circulation to switch from the nocturnal land-breeze circulation, and develop showers and thunderstorms just inland of coastal areas. These storms will likely ride the sea breeze inland through the afternoon and evening before dissipating just after sunset. PWATs will generally be on the threshold (1.4-1.5 inches) for storms to develop on Monday; however, enough dry air through the mid levels will lead to DCAPE values ranging from 800-1000 J/Kg. This combined with an unstable airmass with CAPE values around 1000-2000 J/Kg will allow for some storms to produce strong gusty winds from thunderstorm downbursts.

Highs Monday look to climb into the low 90s, with lows starting out in the upper 60s areawide.

SHORT TERM
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mid-level ridging looks to remain in place across the Eastern Seaboard limiting the spatial extent of convective activity. Given any diurnally-forced storm that gets strong enough to push through mid- level dry air, strong downburst winds could be possible.
Otherwise, expect most shower/storm activity to be along the sea breeze.

Expect overnight lows generally in the upper 60s to low 70s with daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

An area of low pressure across the northern Plains looks move towards the Mid-Atlantic states throughout the long term. A shortwave moving ahead of the associated upper-level trough, looks to send a PV streamer south across the southeast US, before establishing NW flow behind it. PV streamers in this environment generally come along with MCS's. We'll have to see how this evolves, but there is the potential for one late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

Looking at this weekend and beyond, with a synoptic pattern change where we have a ridge to the west and a trough to our northeast, we'll be in the firing line for more MCS's. The so- called "ring of fire" could send several MCS's our way next week.
Stay tuned, and come back for updates on how the large-scale evolves over the next week.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 90s with overnight lows generally in the low 70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across the area today. This will likely cause brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they go over an airport. All terminals are carrying VCTS through the evening until storms begin to dissipate across the area. There is some signal that IFR to LIFR CIGs look to develop at ABY and DHN during the early morning hours Monday. All other terminals look to remain VFR through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible again on Monday afternoon; however, coverage is not expected to be as high.

MARINE
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Generally light southeasterly winds are expected through mid- week as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the next several days.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Outside of low dispersions, there are no fire weather concerns across the region on Monday. Dispersions are forecast to be low, primarily because winds will remain rather light and variable (around 5 mph) out of the south on Monday. Although mixing heights will generally climb to around 5000 ft, these light winds are keeping dispersions relatively low. Minimum RH values will only fall into the upper 40s to low 50s. Showers and thunderstorms look possible again for coastal and slightly interior locations as the sea breeze will initiate storms in the early afternoon, and is expected to surge inland throughout the evening. These storms and the sea breeze may lead to sudden and abrupt wind shifts along with the threat of lightning. Outside of these concerns, there are no other fire weather concerns at this time.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Diurnal pop-up thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding concerns where slow moving storms could produce several inches of rainfall. Otherwise, there are currently no river flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 68 90 70 91 / 30 70 20 50 Panama City 72 87 72 88 / 30 50 10 30 Dothan 68 88 69 91 / 70 50 10 40 Albany 67 89 70 91 / 90 40 10 40 Valdosta 68 90 70 92 / 20 50 20 50 Cross City 67 90 68 93 / 20 70 30 50 Apalachicola 73 85 74 86 / 30 50 20 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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West Bay Creek
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Sun -- 02:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:09 AM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:51 PM CDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

West Bay Creek, West Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida, Tide feet

Panama City Beach
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Sun -- 02:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:42 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:33 AM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:05 PM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:41 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panama City Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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