Sunrise 5:13 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 4:13 PM

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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Pm Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
Rest of tonight - South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm. Monday - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering south late in the morning, then backing southeast early in the afternoon becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon. Monday night - South wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight, then becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely through around midnight, then chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Slight chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.

LMZ600
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FXUS63 KMKX 030314 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1014 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm/muggy conditions prevail for the first half of this week.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday. There is a small, conditional potential for severe storms Monday afternoon.

- Northwest winds bring cooler and drier air to southern Wisconsin for the second half of this week.

UPDATE
Issued 1005 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

All eyes on the upstream convection making its way across eastern NE tonight. Most of the 00z CAMs show this MCV weakening as it tracks across IA and dissipating before it reaches the western half of our CWA as outruns the instability. However, the potential outflow may be enough to trigger a few scattered showers across southwestern WI in the morning, thus cannot rule out lower ends PoPs through daybreak. Then as the potential remaining outflow pushes east later in the morning there may be enough time for daytime heating to build enough instability to help reinvigorate along boundary especially if it interacts with any out remnant outflows from the Upper Midwest convection tonight. Given its speed and timing it looks to produced more scattered showers and few rumbles of thunder late morning into the early afternoon.

If this late morning activity doesn't materialize, coverage remains limited, or pushes out quick enough, then there will be an increased potential for afternoon showers and storms to develop. With an environment not as worked over would allow for instability to build (MUCAPE up to around 1500-2000 J/kg) as surface dewpoints creep into the mid to upper 60s along with steeper lapse rates all as a mid-level disturbance treks east across the region. While deep layer (0-6 km) shear looks meager only around 30-35 kt, there continues to be a potential to see a few strong to severe thunderstorms with the later afternoon/evening round. Main concerns would be damaging winds and hail. However given 0-1 km storm relative helicity creeping north of 100 m2/s2 and hints of curved hodograph in the model sounding, a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well, especially with the potential for storms interacting with lingering boundaries from overnight convection. Some models such as the 00z HRRR show storms developing along a north to south extent before extending more along a west to east orientation of a stalling boundary, which could result in training storms, particularly around the WI/IL border and potential for flooding concerns.

However, this all remains conditional to how the overnight upstream convection/MCV evolves and tracks through Monday morning and if any morning/early afternoon activity develops/clears the area quick enough. Otherwise, it could end up just being showers with a few rumbles of thunder limited in the upscale growth due to lack of thermodynamics developing.

Wagner

SHORT TERM
Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tonight and Monday:

Light winds and high dewpoints may lead to some patchy fog tonight, but increasing high clouds and slightly increasing southeast winds through the night should keep widespread dense fog from developing. Although, river valleys and marshy areas have a chance at dense fog. Lows should be in the mid 50s east thanks to lake-cooled air that will spread inland with the lake breeze this evening. Inland lows will be in the lower 60s where dewpoints will be higher.

There is still uncertainty about how the radar might look Monday. The generally thinking is that the thunderstorms developing in Nebraska this afternoon will evolve into thunderstorm complex that tracks across Iowa overnight. The convection with this is expected to diffuse over northern IL and/or southern WI Monday morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough swinging across the Northern Plains and fueled by the low level jet overnight should produce scattered thunderstorms that are also weakening as they reach western WI Monday morning.

Depending on where the boundaries from the overnight convection stall, and also on how much cloud debris is left over, southern WI could be the focus for a few areas of thunderstorms by midday Monday. So we might see some dying showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder Monday morning, especially west of Madison.
Then any clearing skies will help overcome the cap within our moist environment in the afternoon and thunderstorms could freely convect, especially along any remnant boundaries or areas of convergence. The NAM is showing the potential for 2000 j/kg of CAPE and bulk shear over 35 kt, which would be sufficient for severe storms. This is a little overdone due to too high of dewpoints, but the idea is that we have a chance at severe if conditions come together just right. The SPC Marginal Risk seems appropriate at this time.

With precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches over our area by Monday afternoon, heavy rain is a threat with any clusters of storms that develop.

The precip should be diminishing Monday night, although the GFS wants to fire convection along a stalled 850mb boundary draped across southern WI and on the nose of a weak low level jet. This looks like a less likely scenario at this time.

Cronce

LONG TERM
Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Tuesday through Sunday:

There will be two areas of forcing to watch for when predicting our storm chances on Tuesday. The first one is a forecast storm complex that will be moving across the mid Mississippi River Valley Monday night that could lift into southern WI Tuesday afternoon. The GFS has this idea but the ECMWF and NBM keep this complex over IL. The other area is vorticity advection ahead of a stronger shortwave trekking along the US/Canadian border in the northern Plains.

Warm air advection, moisture advection, and vorticity advection well out ahead of this upper wave may produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern WI Tuesday afternoon. The high precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range will persist through Wednesday, so heavy rain will continue to be a threat wherever there is convection. All of this forcing should keep us fairly cloudy, which will help keep down our instability and therefore our chance for severe storms.

The Northern Plains upper wave is expected to push through WI early Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds will usher drier air into the region. Look for scattered showers during the afternoon due to steep low level lapse rates with the cyclonic flow aloft.

There is uncertainty about how that upper wave will act over the Upper Great Lakes after Wednesday. The GFS tries to keep the closed upper low overhead while the ECMWF moves it to the east coast. The bottom line is that temperatures will be cooler for the last half of the week.

Cronce

AVIATION
Issued 1010 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

High clouds will spread in overnight with a decaying line of showers and storms expected across southwestern WI through daybreak. There will be additional windows for showers and storms to develop late morning/early afternoon and again later afternoon/evening along remnant boundaries from upstream overnight activity. These boundaries may also impact wind direction causing them to shift with a passage, but generally expecting southerly winds through much of the day Monday. While ceilings will generally remain above VFR levels, any shower/storms would lower ceilings and visibility, but tough to determine which terminals will be impacted by this activity at this time. Thus lower flight condition will be possible through the afternoon and evening, but look to improve overnight as daytime activity dwindles.

Wagner

MARINE
Issued 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Dense fog is possible over the south half of Lake Michigan again tonight since the dewpoints are in the mid 50s over the relatively cooler lake water. Look for light and variable winds to increase out of the southeast Monday. Storms are possible Monday afternoon and evening, and at times through Wednesday morning.

Light winds will persist through Wednesday morning. Look for gusty northwest winds in the wake of a cold front Wednesday afternoon. Gusts may exceed Small Craft Advisory levels near the lakeshore during this time.

Cronce

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
LM...None.

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