Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 2:44 AM   Moonset 4:18 PM

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SLZ024 Expires:202406022115;;322368 Fzus61 Kbuf 021739 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 139 pm edt Sun jun 2 2024
slz022-024-022115- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 139 pm edt Sun jun 2 2024
This afternoon - East winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Tonight - West winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Monday - Light and variable winds. Sunny.Monday night - Light and variable winds. Mainly clear. Tuesday - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Wednesday night. Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to less than 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 022325 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 725 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry weather will continue through Tuesday, with highs generally reaching the 80s. Humidity will be gradually increasing this week and some rain showers look to develop on Wednesday.
Widespread rainfall will move through on Thursday and begin a cooling trend for later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 725 PM EDT Sunday...Main change to the forecast for this evening was to increase cloud cover as a BKN/OVC cirrus deck is currently moving through the area, and upstream some SCT/BKN mid-level clouds will encroach upon northern New York through the overnight. Additionally added in an hour or two of slight chance PoPs in southern Franklin/Essex counties of New York as some higher radar reflectivity skirting along the border did produce a very brief period of light rain upstream. Otherwise, temps for the evening remain on track to fall into the 60s after sunset.

Previous Discussion...Large scale ridging will be in place during this period and it will keep the weather relatively dry and sunny. High clouds are making their way into the region this afternoon but they are having a difficult time staying together. Therefore, mostly sunny skies should continue this afternoon, even over much of northern New York. Eventually these clouds will win out and the first part of the night will be partly to mostly cloudy. Clouds will erode later in the night as a high builds down slightly from the northeast. Clearing skies and calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling to develop in the second part of the night, and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s. However, it will not be as cold as the previous nights. Temperatures will rise into the 80s across the region tomorrow and the humidity will begin to increase, with dew points rising into the 50s to around 60. There is the chance of an isolated shower (~10%) across central and eastern Vermont, but with a decent amount amount of dry air in the lower atmosphere, most rain will likely not even reach the ground.
Due to the increased humidity and a warmer airmass, temperatures will stay a few degrees warmer than tonight, only falling into the 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Mid/upper level ridging will build into the region from the west on Tuesday with surface high pressure hanging around coastal New England. While this will generally keep conditions dry and warm, there will be increasing moisture from the west/northwest, and a weak shortwave energy riding the ridge, which could produce a few isolated showers and gradually increase clouds.
Instability is not thoroughly impressive, though there could be enough destabilization from daytime heating to produce a rumble of thunder, especially in northern New York, which will be closest to the interaction of moisture and shortwave.

Temperatures at the 925mb level are modeled at around +20 C Tuesday afternoon. Surface temps are not expected to be greatly impacted by any isolated showers or clouds during the day, soaring 10-15 degrees above early June averages. Highs are expected to rise into the 80s outside the higher elevations and directly over Lake Champlain, likely the hottest day of the week. Warmest conditions will be on the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley as well as New York's St.
Lawrence Valley. We are anticipating a minor risk of heat-related impacts, which would mean mainly individuals extremely sensitive to heat would be affected, particularly when outdoors or without adequate cooling/hydration.

While moisture continues to increase overnight, the ridge begins to crest over the forecast area, keeping us mostly dry. However, there is the potential for another shortwave to sweep south through the region, bringing a few additional showers as surface high pressure heads off into the Atlantic Ocean. This will also allow winds to pick up slightly out of the south, producing low temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s, remaining roughly 10 degrees above average. Overall rain amounts from Tuesday - Tuesday night will not amount to much, perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Dry air at the surface may not allow much precipitation to reach the ground.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be another pop-up scattered shower day due to continued modest instability and high temperatures in the 80s, more widespread showers than Tuesday with higher confidence of precipitation. Showers/storms may produce several hundredths of an inch across the forecast area. Mid/upper level low pressure will send a moist frontal boundary through the forecast area Thursday, and we continue to see a high likelihood of widespread wetting rainfall for this second half of the week.
Temperatures will also be falling towards climatological normals late week through the weekend, mainly highs in the 70s. Following the frontal boundary Thursday, cyclonic circulation will keep us in a wet, showery pattern into early next week. At the moment, the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting at least a 5% chance of flash flooding Wednesday into Thursday due to the rainfall, and rivers are expected to rise slightly as well. However, after a period of mostly dry weather, we are not anticipating high impacts with this system, but will continue to monitor it as it approaches.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. BKN-OVC cirrus clouds will shift east of the region this evening with a SCT-BKN mid-level deck encroaching upon northern New York and perhaps southern VT. After sunrise, skies will trend clear through midday, with a few fair weather cumulus developing over the higher terrain. Light winds overnight will trend northerly at 5-7kts after 14Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

Sorel
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Sun -- 12:25 AM EDT     0.87 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:29 AM EDT     0.85 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 12:47 PM EDT     0.86 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:13 PM EDT     0.84 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:37 PM EDT     Sunset
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Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

Islets Perces
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Sun -- 02:35 AM EDT     0.86 meters High Tide
Sun -- 02:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     0.85 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 02:49 PM EDT     0.90 meters High Tide
Sun -- 04:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.88 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 08:36 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet

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