Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooers, NY
June 4, 2024 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:06 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 3:30 AM Moonset 7:00 PM |
SLZ024 Expires:202406041515;;420193 Fzus61 Kbuf 040833 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 433 am edt Tue jun 4 2024
slz022-024-041515- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 433 am edt Tue jun 4 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Partly Sunny.
Tonight - Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy.
Wednesday - Light and variable winds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight.
Thursday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night.
Friday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 433 am edt Tue jun 4 2024
slz022-024-041515- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 433 am edt Tue jun 4 2024
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
SLZ005
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 041955 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 355 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Aside from an isolated shower, dry conditions will continue through tonight as temperatures remain above normal. More coverage of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected for tomorrow, with slightly higher heat and humidity. Then the pattern turns less hot and rather unsettled with periods of showers on Thursday and through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...For the vast majority of locations, today marks the 7th consecutive day of dry weather. It was also another very warm day with temperatures ranging through the 80s.
Widely isolated showers that were terrain driven may perk up early this evening before losing steam with loss of heating, as there will be little upper level forcing to maintain instability tonight. That being said, any stronger shower/pulse thunderstorm could survive as a relatively light rain shower into the first part of the night, with some low PoPs indicated into portions of south central Vermont in case showers from the west can survive. As weak surface high pressure settles to our southeast, some surface southerly flow will develop such that overnight temperatures will be relatively warm compared to the last couple of nights. The milder air will also be due to increasing low level moisture contributed by west/southwest low level flow around the ridge, as source air will be from the Midwest where dew points are currently in the low to mid 60s.
For Wednesday into Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will be dampened by a wave trying to drop southeastward out of southern Quebec. Our region, extending eastward through northern New England, looks to be in the sweet spot for higher instability than to our south and west as we see some upper level height falls while low level air continues to get a bit juicier with weak warm air advection. As such, scattered showers and thunderstorms will blossom, and potentially well before noontime given progged CAPE being driven by the aforementioned upper level wave rather than just surface heating. In fact, progged precipitable water and instability both look to trend lower in the afternoon, with better chances for additional showers and thunderstorms tending to shift north and east during that period. Overall, we remain unconcerned with widespread hazardous weather given recent dryness, relatively weak forcing for thunderstorms tomorrow. Will still need to watch for a spot or two where a downpour could linger and produced heavy rain in a small footprint, as cloud layer flow will be be pretty light.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night, bringing widespread rainfall. The overall flow will be relatively light so there will be the chance of some slow-moving or training showers.
However, the flow should be just fast enough to push the front through and mostly limit this potential. The front will move to the east of the region late Thursday night and there should be a decent break in the precipitation after. Overall, thinking QPF will generally be between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. While this is higher than previously forecast, the flooding threat is still very limited.
Overall, the percentage of ensemble members forecasting over an inch has not changed much from yesterday, still around 30%. However, over 90% are now forecasting over 0.5 inches instead of 50-60%, so the solutions mostly converged to around yesterday's 75th percentile. Therefore, it is unlikely that it trends much higher, though there will still likely be localized higher amounts where the heavier showers develop. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any flash flooding is unlikely. The WPC has the region in a marginal risk ERO for up to a 5 percent chance of flash flooding and that seems reasonable, though it is probably in the low end of the range.
Mainstem river flooding is not a concern. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 and lows Thursday night will be in the 50s and low 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An unsettled pattern will be in place during much of this period as a closed off low will be lingering over the North Country. Overall, shower coverage will increase during the day as diurnal heating and cold air aloft cause instability and it will wane at night as the atmosphere stabilizes. Embedded shortwaves will pivot around this low and increase shower chances at different times and will provide the lift to continue the showers overnight if they come through then.
Right now, it looks like showers will be more numerous through Sunday and become a little more scattered starting Monday. The closed off low finally looks to exit the region mid to late week and the shower chances will subsequently become much less numerous.
Temperatures during this period will be below to around normal, but persistence will be the trend with little change in temperatures between each day.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions for the 24 hours will continue. Light, terrain driven winds have been present today as expected. Overnight, aside from increasing southerly wind at BTV to near 10 kts, little will change. A popup shower or two is possible between 21-00z, and based on development of cumulus think SLK has highest chances of being impacted where VCSH is indicated. If a shower or two hits a taf site toward sunset, given higher dwpts overnight, localized patchy fog is possible.
Confidence of IFR fog remains <10% at any site attm, although SLK looks slightly more favorable at this time.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
CLIMATE
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over the next three days at some climate sites.
Record high maximum temperatures are possible today and tomorrow, primarily at Massena and Montpelier. A record high minimum temperature may occur at Plattsburgh for those nights.
Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.
Current Record High Temperatures:
June 4: KMPV: 85/1967
June 5: KMPV: 85/2021 KMSS: 88/1974
Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5: KPBG: 65/1963
June 6: KPBG: 67/1973
Current Record Precipitation:
June 6: KMSS: 1.09/1953
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 355 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024
SYNOPSIS
Aside from an isolated shower, dry conditions will continue through tonight as temperatures remain above normal. More coverage of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected for tomorrow, with slightly higher heat and humidity. Then the pattern turns less hot and rather unsettled with periods of showers on Thursday and through the weekend.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...For the vast majority of locations, today marks the 7th consecutive day of dry weather. It was also another very warm day with temperatures ranging through the 80s.
Widely isolated showers that were terrain driven may perk up early this evening before losing steam with loss of heating, as there will be little upper level forcing to maintain instability tonight. That being said, any stronger shower/pulse thunderstorm could survive as a relatively light rain shower into the first part of the night, with some low PoPs indicated into portions of south central Vermont in case showers from the west can survive. As weak surface high pressure settles to our southeast, some surface southerly flow will develop such that overnight temperatures will be relatively warm compared to the last couple of nights. The milder air will also be due to increasing low level moisture contributed by west/southwest low level flow around the ridge, as source air will be from the Midwest where dew points are currently in the low to mid 60s.
For Wednesday into Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will be dampened by a wave trying to drop southeastward out of southern Quebec. Our region, extending eastward through northern New England, looks to be in the sweet spot for higher instability than to our south and west as we see some upper level height falls while low level air continues to get a bit juicier with weak warm air advection. As such, scattered showers and thunderstorms will blossom, and potentially well before noontime given progged CAPE being driven by the aforementioned upper level wave rather than just surface heating. In fact, progged precipitable water and instability both look to trend lower in the afternoon, with better chances for additional showers and thunderstorms tending to shift north and east during that period. Overall, we remain unconcerned with widespread hazardous weather given recent dryness, relatively weak forcing for thunderstorms tomorrow. Will still need to watch for a spot or two where a downpour could linger and produced heavy rain in a small footprint, as cloud layer flow will be be pretty light.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night, bringing widespread rainfall. The overall flow will be relatively light so there will be the chance of some slow-moving or training showers.
However, the flow should be just fast enough to push the front through and mostly limit this potential. The front will move to the east of the region late Thursday night and there should be a decent break in the precipitation after. Overall, thinking QPF will generally be between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. While this is higher than previously forecast, the flooding threat is still very limited.
Overall, the percentage of ensemble members forecasting over an inch has not changed much from yesterday, still around 30%. However, over 90% are now forecasting over 0.5 inches instead of 50-60%, so the solutions mostly converged to around yesterday's 75th percentile. Therefore, it is unlikely that it trends much higher, though there will still likely be localized higher amounts where the heavier showers develop. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any flash flooding is unlikely. The WPC has the region in a marginal risk ERO for up to a 5 percent chance of flash flooding and that seems reasonable, though it is probably in the low end of the range.
Mainstem river flooding is not a concern. Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 and lows Thursday night will be in the 50s and low 60s.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
An unsettled pattern will be in place during much of this period as a closed off low will be lingering over the North Country. Overall, shower coverage will increase during the day as diurnal heating and cold air aloft cause instability and it will wane at night as the atmosphere stabilizes. Embedded shortwaves will pivot around this low and increase shower chances at different times and will provide the lift to continue the showers overnight if they come through then.
Right now, it looks like showers will be more numerous through Sunday and become a little more scattered starting Monday. The closed off low finally looks to exit the region mid to late week and the shower chances will subsequently become much less numerous.
Temperatures during this period will be below to around normal, but persistence will be the trend with little change in temperatures between each day.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions for the 24 hours will continue. Light, terrain driven winds have been present today as expected. Overnight, aside from increasing southerly wind at BTV to near 10 kts, little will change. A popup shower or two is possible between 21-00z, and based on development of cumulus think SLK has highest chances of being impacted where VCSH is indicated. If a shower or two hits a taf site toward sunset, given higher dwpts overnight, localized patchy fog is possible.
Confidence of IFR fog remains <10% at any site attm, although SLK looks slightly more favorable at this time.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
CLIMATE
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over the next three days at some climate sites.
Record high maximum temperatures are possible today and tomorrow, primarily at Massena and Montpelier. A record high minimum temperature may occur at Plattsburgh for those nights.
Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.
Current Record High Temperatures:
June 4: KMPV: 85/1967
June 5: KMPV: 85/2021 KMSS: 88/1974
Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 5: KPBG: 65/1963
June 6: KPBG: 67/1973
Current Record Precipitation:
June 6: KMSS: 1.09/1953
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Sorel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT 0.86 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EDT 0.85 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:09 PM EDT 0.89 meters High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM EDT 0.87 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:13 AM EDT 0.86 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:26 AM EDT 0.85 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 03:09 PM EDT 0.89 meters High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:22 PM EDT 0.87 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Islets Perces
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:12 AM EDT 0.96 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT 0.94 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 PM EDT 0.98 meters High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:20 PM EDT 0.97 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:12 AM EDT 0.96 meters High Tide
Tue -- 03:24 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT 0.94 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 04:29 PM EDT 0.98 meters High Tide
Tue -- 06:59 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:20 PM EDT 0.97 meters Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.9 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.9 |
| 7 am |
| 0.9 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.9 |
| 10 am |
| 0.9 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Burlington, VT,
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