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FXUS64 KBMX 021908 AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

New LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Central Alabama remains in a fairly moist and stagnant weather pattern through the short term period. A surface ridge is currently centered over the southwestern Atlantic with a weak southerly flow present across the Deep South. Meanwhile, an upper level trough axis has moved east over the Mid-Atlantic states with westerly flow aloft over much of the Southeast. Isentropic lift during the overnight hours produced widespread low stratus clouds, that are still hanging on as we approach midday for locations along the I-20 corridor. In the meantime, isolated to scattered showers with a few storms have developed this morning from leftover mesoscale boundary interactions. As daytime heating continues to increase through the afternoon, a few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds as SBCAPE increases to 2500-3000 J/kg with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, especially across western and southwestern portions of Central Alabama. Even though the storms will be pulse-like in nature, Effective Bulk Shear around 20 knots may keep updrafts going a little longer before they collapse. Due to a lack of organized forcing, storms should remain below severe limits, but wouldn't rule out the issuance of some Special Weather Statements with 40mph wind gusts later this afternoon.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight tonight as showers and storms diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low stratus clouds and fog development appears likely as ground conditions remain fairly wet. Areas with the best chance for fog will be across eastern and northeastern counties where clouds have hung on the longest into the afternoon with less time for sunshine to dry out the surface. We'll need to monitor observation trends through the evening for the potential of issuing a Dense Fog Advisory during the overnight hours.

Low clouds and fog will mix out through Monday morning, giving way to a very warm afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Only isolated showers and storms are currently in the forecast, as upper level ridging sets up over the region. The next upper level shortwave impulse to our west will pivot to the northeast, keeping most organized showers and storms well to our northwest through Monday evening. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees areawide.

56/GDG

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Really not much of a change as we remain fairly active through Thursday. Timing has not improved any with the Friday and Saturday time in regards to the frontal passage. The good news is that the consensus of the models do push the front through the area and may provide us with some drier conditions for a couple of days.

16

Previous long-term discussion: (Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

High pressure shifts to our east as weak upper level troughing pushes southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon on Tuesday with the best chances across the northwestern half of Central AL due to proximity of the shortwave. The main trough axis will slide through the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to increased rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially in the afternoons.

As we approach the end of the week, uncertainty increases on the evolution of the main upper trough as guidance has been pretty consistent in showing a frontal boundary pushing southward through Central AL. However, the timing of that frontal passage has been quite variable leading to low confidence in the forecast for Friday into Saturday. The details of when the front will push through Central AL and what that means in terms of thunderstorm activity will need to be worked out in coming days when model guidance comes into better agreement on the timing.

25/Owen

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

MVFR conditions are lingering at a few terminals at 18z, but expected to become VFR for everyone shortly. Scattered SHRA will continue through the afternoon with some TSRA, but have not included any mention of TSRA in the TAF at this time. A few amendments aren't out of the question if a storm develops close to a terminal, but activity will be very summer-like in nature with some variable wind gusts possible. SHRA/TSRA activity will diminish during the evening with a good chance of MVFR to IFR stratus/fog development between 08z and 13z Monday morning at many locations. Fog and low stratus should mix out by 14z with VFR conditions expected during the day on Monday with light winds.

56/GDG

FIRE WEATHER

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today.
Generally light southerly winds will persist through Tuesday. RH values will remain above 50 for the next few days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Gadsden 65 87 65 88 / 20 20 20 40 Anniston 66 87 68 87 / 20 20 20 40 Birmingham 68 88 69 88 / 20 20 20 40 Tuscaloosa 69 89 70 88 / 20 20 20 40 Calera 68 87 69 87 / 20 20 20 40 Auburn 67 85 69 87 / 30 20 20 40 Montgomery 67 87 68 90 / 30 20 20 40 Troy 66 87 68 90 / 30 20 20 40

BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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