Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Russell Springs, KS
June 2, 2024 4:43 PM CDT (21:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:20 AM Sunset 9:02 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM Moonset 4:03 PM |
FXUS63 KGLD 021907 AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 107 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Possible significant severe weather in the area this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, very strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are the main threats. There is a chance that severe weather will not form in the area or be very limited depending on how much dry air moves into the area.
Best chance is along and north of Interstate 70.
- Conditional chance of severe hail east of Highway 25 in Kansas Monday afternoon.
- A less active weather pattern develops Tuesday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Outflow boundary emanating to the west from earlier day convection is currently the main mesoscale feature that may help make or break today's severe weather potential. The overall magnitude of the severe threat for today remains rather conditional; but still remains the potential for significant severe weather to occur.
Dryline thus far has moved very little with majority of the area remaining in southerly flow with gusty winds helping keep the moisture in place. With the moisture remaining in place; have lowered temperatures into the mid to upper 80s from the previous forecast, which may still be to generous given anticipated cumulus field development and more stable air behind the westward propagating outflow boundary.
All of this does play a role into thunderstorm development as well as RAP soundings do show a CAP in place with convective temperatures in the low 90s. There is also concern for dry air aloft moving into the area which would hinder intensification of any updrafts due to entrainment. Outflow as well will play a role into whether or not specific areas will see initial storm development if it continues to push west, however if it stalls then this may help enhance additional lift and make convective initiation a bit more than a single cell.
With all of this said, there may be 3 potential scenarios that will play out:
1) Outflow continues to trek west stabilizing the environment for the afternoon storm threat, would then have to watch for northern areas for clusters moving SSE from the Nebraska Panhandle.
2) Outflow stalls, but dry air entrainment "chokes off" updrafts and helps keep the CAP in place; but still have the Nebraska Panhandle storms move into the area.
3) Dry air is slower to move into the area, outflow stalls and initial cells are more widespread/intense; then round 2 with the Nebraska Panhandle activity.
As for hazards, with the (potential) afternoon storms. These should remain more isolated with supercell potential initially producing very large hail up to Tennis Balls, damaging wind gusts and potentially tornadoes especially if a storm interacts with the outflow boundary or if multiple cells are present through storm mergers. At 18Z, the KGLD VAD wind profile does support this potential with 0-3 SRH of 180 and 0-1 SRH of 100 m2/s2. With the anticipation of this increasing especially near the outflow boundary and as the main shortwave approaches. At this time the area of potential greater tornado threat looks to lie west of Highway 25 but north of I-70 (Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins, Thomas and Kit Carson counties).
For the potential for activity moving in from the Nebraska Panhandle after sunset. At this time thinking that this should favor more of the northeast counties (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton, Decatur).
This looks to be mainly a damaging wind threat with 70+ mph wind gusts possible and heavy rainfall, which may exacerbate and flooding issues from the past several days of heavy rainfall.
Will also have to monitor for potential redevelopment across the area overnight as a cold front sags through the area and interacts with the LLJ; at this time not anticipating this to be severe but only a heavy rain potential. Due to uncertainty regarding this afternoons mesoscale features and potential "interruptions" to the environment will keep this as slight chance pops for now.
Monday, zonal upper level flow looks to be in place. Some surface convergence during the afternoon hours may bring some additional thunderstorm development primarily east of Highway 25. Due to lack of upper level support thinking is that this shouldn't be along lived event like today. Some severe threat may be present with moisture remaining in place MUCAPE in excess of 3500 j/kg and wind shear of 25-30 knots. Highs for tomorrow look to be in the mid to upper 80s but with less wind as wind should remain mainly light and variable. Another wave then moves across the area Monday night and into Tuesday morning bringing another round of thunderstorms; severe weather is not anticipated at this time with that activity.
Split flow, then dominates the area Tuesday as temperatures again rise into the 80s for all of the area. Not currently seeing any signs for precipitation. Winds will become breezy from the NW around 20 mph gusting 30-35 mph.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Wednesday...500mb heights slowly rise as upper level ridging strengthens over the western half of the country. There is a hint of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area from the north during the day along or immediately behind some cooler air and wind shift. Not much instability to work with and old school Totals Totals only in the lower 40s and K Index values 20-25 dont generally support any convection. Presently, the forecast is dry and thats seems reasonable this moment. 850mb temperatures in the 25C to 32C range support high temperatures in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern. Daytime hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the night as 850-500mb moisture increases from the southeast while weather disturbances move east off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridges and into our area. 850mb temperatures are a little cooler, ranging from 19C to 27C. This would typically support high temperatures in the 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.
Friday...the tongue of better moisture in the 850-500mb layer over much of the area in the morning slowly moves east through the morning and out of the area by late afternoon with associated 20% pops with it. The next weather system per 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts emerges off the Colorado front range and potentially into far eastern Colorado by 00z Saturday, moving across the remainder of the area during the night with 30%-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms with it. High temperatures remain above normal in the 80s to around 90 with low temperatures in the 50s.
Saturday...generally speaking, any mornings showers across the eastern half of the area should move out as the next weather system moves off the Colorado front range and into perhaps far eastern Colorado by the end of the day, continuing east across the entire area during the night in some form or fashion. Presently, 20% pops are forecast in the morning with 40% chances across far eastern Colorado late afternoon and 40%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s.
Sunday...similar large scale scenario as Saturday with any morning showers/thunderstorms exiting in by late morning/early afternoon then waiting for next wave to move across from eastern Colorado during the night. Presently, 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms during the day, 30%-50% during the night. High temperatures cool a bit into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the 50s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Watching an outflow boundary move west from earlier morning convection; have included a tempo group for GLD for a possible wind shift associated with this. The main focus for this TAF period will be thunderstorms late this afternoon and through this evening. Isolated cells look to develop near KGLD around 21Z before growing upscale into a cluster or two which does look to impact KMCK. For KMCK will need to watch for severe potential and possible sub VFR conditions. In the wake of the storms winds will become more variable but lighter through 18Z Monday.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 107 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Possible significant severe weather in the area this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, very strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes are the main threats. There is a chance that severe weather will not form in the area or be very limited depending on how much dry air moves into the area.
Best chance is along and north of Interstate 70.
- Conditional chance of severe hail east of Highway 25 in Kansas Monday afternoon.
- A less active weather pattern develops Tuesday through Friday with above normal high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Outflow boundary emanating to the west from earlier day convection is currently the main mesoscale feature that may help make or break today's severe weather potential. The overall magnitude of the severe threat for today remains rather conditional; but still remains the potential for significant severe weather to occur.
Dryline thus far has moved very little with majority of the area remaining in southerly flow with gusty winds helping keep the moisture in place. With the moisture remaining in place; have lowered temperatures into the mid to upper 80s from the previous forecast, which may still be to generous given anticipated cumulus field development and more stable air behind the westward propagating outflow boundary.
All of this does play a role into thunderstorm development as well as RAP soundings do show a CAP in place with convective temperatures in the low 90s. There is also concern for dry air aloft moving into the area which would hinder intensification of any updrafts due to entrainment. Outflow as well will play a role into whether or not specific areas will see initial storm development if it continues to push west, however if it stalls then this may help enhance additional lift and make convective initiation a bit more than a single cell.
With all of this said, there may be 3 potential scenarios that will play out:
1) Outflow continues to trek west stabilizing the environment for the afternoon storm threat, would then have to watch for northern areas for clusters moving SSE from the Nebraska Panhandle.
2) Outflow stalls, but dry air entrainment "chokes off" updrafts and helps keep the CAP in place; but still have the Nebraska Panhandle storms move into the area.
3) Dry air is slower to move into the area, outflow stalls and initial cells are more widespread/intense; then round 2 with the Nebraska Panhandle activity.
As for hazards, with the (potential) afternoon storms. These should remain more isolated with supercell potential initially producing very large hail up to Tennis Balls, damaging wind gusts and potentially tornadoes especially if a storm interacts with the outflow boundary or if multiple cells are present through storm mergers. At 18Z, the KGLD VAD wind profile does support this potential with 0-3 SRH of 180 and 0-1 SRH of 100 m2/s2. With the anticipation of this increasing especially near the outflow boundary and as the main shortwave approaches. At this time the area of potential greater tornado threat looks to lie west of Highway 25 but north of I-70 (Yuma, Dundy, Cheyenne (KS), Rawlins, Thomas and Kit Carson counties).
For the potential for activity moving in from the Nebraska Panhandle after sunset. At this time thinking that this should favor more of the northeast counties (Hitchcock, Red Willow, Norton, Decatur).
This looks to be mainly a damaging wind threat with 70+ mph wind gusts possible and heavy rainfall, which may exacerbate and flooding issues from the past several days of heavy rainfall.
Will also have to monitor for potential redevelopment across the area overnight as a cold front sags through the area and interacts with the LLJ; at this time not anticipating this to be severe but only a heavy rain potential. Due to uncertainty regarding this afternoons mesoscale features and potential "interruptions" to the environment will keep this as slight chance pops for now.
Monday, zonal upper level flow looks to be in place. Some surface convergence during the afternoon hours may bring some additional thunderstorm development primarily east of Highway 25. Due to lack of upper level support thinking is that this shouldn't be along lived event like today. Some severe threat may be present with moisture remaining in place MUCAPE in excess of 3500 j/kg and wind shear of 25-30 knots. Highs for tomorrow look to be in the mid to upper 80s but with less wind as wind should remain mainly light and variable. Another wave then moves across the area Monday night and into Tuesday morning bringing another round of thunderstorms; severe weather is not anticipated at this time with that activity.
Split flow, then dominates the area Tuesday as temperatures again rise into the 80s for all of the area. Not currently seeing any signs for precipitation. Winds will become breezy from the NW around 20 mph gusting 30-35 mph.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Wednesday...500mb heights slowly rise as upper level ridging strengthens over the western half of the country. There is a hint of moisture in the 700-500mb layer moving through the area from the north during the day along or immediately behind some cooler air and wind shift. Not much instability to work with and old school Totals Totals only in the lower 40s and K Index values 20-25 dont generally support any convection. Presently, the forecast is dry and thats seems reasonable this moment. 850mb temperatures in the 25C to 32C range support high temperatures in the 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s.
Thursday...not a whole lot of change in the 500mb pattern. Daytime hours look to be precipitation free with a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop during the night as 850-500mb moisture increases from the southeast while weather disturbances move east off the Palmer Divide and Cheyenne Ridges and into our area. 850mb temperatures are a little cooler, ranging from 19C to 27C. This would typically support high temperatures in the 80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s.
Friday...the tongue of better moisture in the 850-500mb layer over much of the area in the morning slowly moves east through the morning and out of the area by late afternoon with associated 20% pops with it. The next weather system per 700-500mb relative humidity forecasts emerges off the Colorado front range and potentially into far eastern Colorado by 00z Saturday, moving across the remainder of the area during the night with 30%-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms with it. High temperatures remain above normal in the 80s to around 90 with low temperatures in the 50s.
Saturday...generally speaking, any mornings showers across the eastern half of the area should move out as the next weather system moves off the Colorado front range and into perhaps far eastern Colorado by the end of the day, continuing east across the entire area during the night in some form or fashion. Presently, 20% pops are forecast in the morning with 40% chances across far eastern Colorado late afternoon and 40%-50% chances for showers and thunderstorms during the night. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80 to 85 degree range with low temperatures in the 50s.
Sunday...similar large scale scenario as Saturday with any morning showers/thunderstorms exiting in by late morning/early afternoon then waiting for next wave to move across from eastern Colorado during the night. Presently, 20%-40% chances for thunderstorms during the day, 30%-50% during the night. High temperatures cool a bit into the upper 70s to lower 80s with low temperatures in the 50s.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1057 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Watching an outflow boundary move west from earlier morning convection; have included a tempo group for GLD for a possible wind shift associated with this. The main focus for this TAF period will be thunderstorms late this afternoon and through this evening. Isolated cells look to develop near KGLD around 21Z before growing upscale into a cluster or two which does look to impact KMCK. For KMCK will need to watch for severe potential and possible sub VFR conditions. In the wake of the storms winds will become more variable but lighter through 18Z Monday.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOEL OAKLEY MUNI,KS | 18 sm | 28 min | S 19G27 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 86°F | 59°F | 40% | 29.75 |
Goodland, KS,
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