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FXUS61 KILN 021801 AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 201 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak front trailing low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes will move into the area today offering a continued chance of a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm. The front will stall and weaken further allowing high pressure to build in by Monday providing a period of dry weather. An unsettled pattern will then develop for mid week and continue through the end of the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Weak surface low in southeast Indiana will continue to drift east into the Tri-State. Scattered showers ahead of this feature will continue to push across southern counties this afternoon.
With some breaks in the clouds, enough instability could develop to allow for some thunder.

Meanwhile, a surface trough extending from northwest Ohio into central Indiana is also sliding eastward. There are some very light echoes along this boundary and further development is possible through the afternoon as this moves into the northwest part of the forecast area.

Have lowered temperatures even though there are some breaks developing in the clouds across parts of the area.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
Lingering showers and embedded thunder will end this evening in weakly forced environment. Signal for fog development exists tonight in light wind regime with abundant low level moisture.
At this time have a mention of fog in the forecast but have not mentioned dense fog but that potential does exist. Lows will fall into the lower 60s for most locations.

Weak surface high pressure across the area Monday will offer dry conditions. Fog that develops will improve by mid morning with skies becoming partly by afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Shortwave energy running into an upper ridge will get stalled west of the CWA Monday night and gradually increase lift as it eventually tops the ridge in northwest Ohio later in the day Tuesday. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase slightly through daybreak Wednesday as the upper ridge moves to the East Coast. As the zonal southwest flow follows the breakdown of the ridge, moisture will be pulled into the Ohio Valley, along with shortwave energy passing east as it rotates around an elongated cutoff low running nw-se through the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will result, peaking in the afternoon and tapering off overnight. Thursday will have a continued chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms in the afternoon as the cutoff low begins to track along the nw-se axis towards MI. For the remainder of the forecast, the upper low wraps up in MI and makes a slow track into northern OH by Friday night.
The atmosphere should be worked over beginning Thursday night with drier air being pulled in from the northwest. The cold nature of the low should see passing shower activity, and some insolation on Saturday could interact with energy on the back side of the low for the showers to strengthen enough to spark some thunder in the late day.

A warm start to Tuesday with morning lows in the mid 60s will warm nicely into the mid-upper 80s. Overnight lows are even warmer on Tuesday night, only dropping to the upper 60s. The precip on Wednesday will knock highs down a bit from near 80 in the west to the mid 80s in the east. Temperatures continue a decline through the remainder of the forecast, dropping below 60 for lows Thursday night and under 80 for highs on Friday and lingering in the upper 70s and upper 50s into the weekend.

AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Low ceilings across the area will be lifting during the early part of the TAF period as well as having breaks develop in the cloud cover. There is a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the clouds. It appears that most sites will become VFR within a few hours either side of 00Z except perhaps for the Columbus terminals. However, lingering low level moisture and light winds will most likely result in fog and in some cases stratus developing generally after 06Z.
This will result in IFR to LIFR conditions. After 12Z, Visibility will improve first follow by ceilings lifting and scattering late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

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