Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 2:17 AM   Moonset 3:40 PM

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FXUS61 KPBZ 020717 AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 317 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers expected today with crossing low pressure. The next chance of widespread precipitation will arrive by midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers spread across the region today. No Thunder.
- Cooler temperatures / increased cloud coverage -------------------------------------------------------------------

Light showers will spread across the region this morning ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, eventually pushing an associated surface cold front through this evening. Opted to not included any mention of thunder, as excessive cloud cover should limit instability. The lack of strong forcing and diminished upper support should result in more scattered coverage, and some locations may see little to no rain.
Temperatures will be cooler today with less solar insolation.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather resumes this evening with shortwave ridging.

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Dry weather resumes tonight with the loss of daytime heating and exiting of the shortwave. Any lingering overnight showers will be confined to upslope Laurel Highland zones. The lack of notable dry advection behind the system could make fog a potential overnight impact, depending on the degree/quickness of cloud clearing.

Dry conditions continue Monday with subtle ridging stretching from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River Valley. Temperatures will warm to above normal with increasing heights.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower/storm chances increase for the second half of the work week.

- Temperatures will trend down as an upper low settles over the eastern CONUS.

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Continued dry conditions Tuesday under the influence of high pressure will be followed by unsettled conditions the remainder of the week with a crossing low pressure system and upper trough settling in over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles suggest this pattern is maintained through the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
The approach and passage of a weak upper level shortwave trough will foster areas of light rain this morning that become more scattered showers during the afternoon before it exits this evening. Probability for lightning never exceeds 20 percent, and thus no lightning is mentioned in TAFs.

VFR conditions are favoring at all terminals through 12z (8am), with only 30 percent probability of MVFR conditions at KZZV.
After 12z, uncertainty increases in timing of potential restrictions; ensemble probability never rises above 50 percent for MVFR cigs at KPIT until the end of the TAF period while deterministic guidance suggests an 16z onset and persistence thereafter. The most likely outcome is periods of VFR mixed with MVFR throughout the afternoon and evening hours.

Depending on boundary layer moisture and clearing of residual stratocu, fog and/or low stratus may develop Monday morning.
However, variability on potential outcomes for that period remains high.

Outlook
Upper riding and surface high pressure will support a return to VFR conditions by Monday afternoon with a dissipating field of diurnal cu.

The next low pressure system is favored to arrive Wednesday afternoon and evening and promote fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms.

PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

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