Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Boardman, OR
June 2, 2024 3:27 PM PDT (22:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:07 AM Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 2:49 AM Moonset 4:32 PM |
FXUS66 KPDT 022141 AFDPDT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 241 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon are showing much of the western half of OR/WA under light to moderate rainfall, while radar returns are beginning to fill in across the eastern halves of the states.
Surface observations are showing some of this precip making it to the ground along the Cascade east slopes and into portions of Kittitas/Yakima valleys.
The precipitation spreading across the PacNW this afternoon is associated with a pair of frontal boundaries that are coupled with an upper level trough that is currently off the coast of central BC. The leading warm front of this system will continue to spread bands of rainfall across the intermountain PacNW through tonight, with the cold front following behind late tonight through tomorrow morning with rain showers. These frontal systems are being supported by a moderate Atmospheric River, in which ECMWF and GFS ensemble means show a Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) of between 500-750 kg/m*s, which translates to PWATS between 1 to 1.25 inches across the PacNW. The AR will be aimed at the PacNW through tomorrow late tomorrow morning, resulting in peak rainfall amounts occurring through this time period. Through tomorrow morning, the Cascade crest and upper slopes, the Northern Blues, and the Wallowas can anticipate rainfall accumulations between 1.25 to 2 inches; 0.5-1.25 inches across portions of the Southern Blues, Simcoe Highlands, Wallowa county and the WA Blue mountain foothills; 0.25 to 0.5 inches OR Blue Mountain foothills, Grande Ronde valley, and Ochoco-John Day Highlands; 0.1 to 0.25 across the eastern half of the Columbia Basin and Horse Heaven Hills; and up to 0.1 inches across central and north central OR, western half of the Columbia Basin, and the Yakima/Kittitas valleys. As the trough drops into the PacNW and the cold front exits to the east tomorrow, shower activity will mainly be confined along the Cascade crest, with mainly light showers across the eastern mountains. There will also be isolated thunderstorm chances across the Strawberries, Blues, and Wallowas with a heavy downpour or two possible in the late morning through the afternoon tomorrow.
Windy conditions will also be present through Monday as the cold front moves across the intermountain PacNW. The frontal passage and the upper trough approach will tighten the cross-Cascade pressure gradients, producing windy conditions through the gaps and into the lower elevations. Wind gusts between 45-55 mph and sustained winds between 25-35 mph will impact the Basin, eastern Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, north central OR, Blue Mtn foothills, and the Yakima/Kittitas valleys beginning mid morning and persisting into the evening. Wind advisories have been issued for these areas. Otherwise, sustained winds across the remaining lower elevation areas will increase to 20-25mph and gusts up to 40mph tomorrow.
Winds and shower activity will decrease across the forecast area Monday evening as the upper trough exits into ID and western MT.
However, a moist westerly flow aloft and a shortwave passage Tuesday will continue to produce light rain showers across the Cascade crest. Locally breezy to breezy winds will redevelop Tuesday as the shortwave tightens cross-Cascade pressure gradient once more, however winds will only increase to 15-25mph and gusts up to 40mph in the lower elevations.
While widespread impacts from the increased rainfall across the region is not expected, the heavy rainfall and subsequent snow melt along the Cascades will lead to rises through area rivers and streams. With how dry it's been, however, many of these rivers/streams are forecast to stay will within bankfull...except for the Naches River near Naches and Cliffdell where river forecasts put river levels just over bankfull. Outside of main stem rivers/streams, rapid rises may be possible on smaller streams and creeks during the period of heaviest precipitation, especially those originating out of the Wallowa mountains.
Lawhorn/82
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...Models are in good agreement about having a ridge over the western CONUS through most of the long term period though differences about the location of the ridge axis and the strength of the ridge grow increasingly over time and these differences make big differences to the forecast of our area. Model ensemble member clusters start out Wednesday with unanimous agreement in having the ridge axis along the Washington/Oregon/Idaho border and just some minor differences as to the strength of the ridge. On Thursday, 38 percent of the members (mainly from the ECMWF) keep the ridge axis stationary from Wednesday while the rest of the model ensemble members move the ridge axis east over Idaho and Montana with a southwesterly flow developing over our area. On Friday, 52 percent of the members (again mostly the ECMWF) develop a negatively tilted ridge with the ridge axis extending from northern Nevada to the British Columbia coast while the other model clusters keep the ridge axis over the Rockies and develop a stronger southwesterly flow over our area. Saturday is very similar to Friday though the ECMWF led clusters and the GFS/Canadian led clusters develop differences as to whether the ridge will be strong or very strong.
The GFS/Canadian led clusters also have a trough about 800-1000 miles offshore approaching the area which maintains the southwesterly flow aloft and nudges the ridge slightly further east.
By Sunday, differences become much larger. 66 percent of the model clusters (ECMWF with some support for the GFS) have the trough offshore weakening into a weak closed low with a ridge axis over eastern Oregon and Washington while 23 percent have a stronger trough still offshore with a strong ridge over the Rockies. The remaining 11 percent have a deep trough at the coast with a weaker ridge over the Rockies.
The Extreme Forecast Index shows no significant weather Wednesday and just some signals for unusual heat (0.7 - 0.8) over the eastern mountains and Oregon Cascades. Saturday and Sunday, the heat values rise to 0.6 to 0.9 with the higher values mainly over Oregon. There are also some shift of tails indicating that the uncertainty of the ridge location and strength may make more extreme temperatures possible. Additionally next weekend, CAPE values rise to 0.6 - 0.9 from the Oregon Cascades over the eastern mountains and this will suggest afternoon thunderstorms on those days. Overall forecast confidence starts out good and becomes below normal by next weekend.
Wednesday will be a dry and sunny day with highs rising 5 to 8 degrees to the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid 70s in the mountains. Thursday will be similar with high temperatures rising 4 to 7 more degrees to the mid 70s to mid 80s. A few late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Ochoco-John Day Highlands near Seneca.
On Friday, temperatures rise another 4 to 7 degrees with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower elevations and in the mid 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. The NBM has the Columbia Basin and Columbia Gorge at a 70-85 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees, the Yakima Valley at a 64 percent chance and the Blue Mountain Foothills at a 40-50 percent chance. Late afternoon thunderstorms return to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands with a little greater coverage and extend into the John Day area.
Saturday warms another 2-4 degrees according to the NBM with highs of 88-98 in the lower elevations and in the mid 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. The NBM also shows the Columbia Basin with an 85-95 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees, the Blue Mountain Foothills a 65-75 percent chance and a 45-55 percent in central Oregon. There is also a 30-45 percent chance of reaching 100 degrees from Hermiston north to the Tri-Cities. However, the NBM also shows an increasing spread of 5 to 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th high temperature percentiles, reflecting the growing uncertainty in the forecast.
With the increasing heat, there will be increasing instability and a slight chance to chance of afternoon showers over the mountains and perhaps the Blue Mountain Foothills. Have limited mention of thunderstorms to the central Oregon Cascades and the Ochoco-John day Highlands northeast into Wallowa County.
Temperatures cool about 5 degrees on Sunday to the mid 80s to mid 90s with mid 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. The NBM spread between the 25th to 75th percentiles increases to as much as 10 degrees showing the increasing uncertainty in the forecast. Once again have a slight chance to chance of showers in the Cascades, eastern mountains and Blue Mountain Foothills with a slight chance of thunderstorms limited to the eastern mountains. Perry/83
AVIATION
Previous Discussion
18Z TAFs
An incoming wet system will bring rain and lowering ceilings to all TAF sites this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Low end VFR conditions will be prevalent though periods of MVFR CIGs and VSBY will be possible with the heavier rain from 00Z- 06Z. Winds today will be west to southwest at 8 to 18 kts with gusts to 25 kts except a few kts higher at KBDN. Winds will decrease in the late evening then begin picking up again after 14Z becoming westerly at 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts through 18Z. Winds will increase further after 18Z tomorrow morning. Perry/83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 53 64 48 72 / 90 70 10 10 ALW 55 67 50 72 / 90 90 10 20 PSC 57 71 54 77 / 80 50 10 10 YKM 51 67 47 73 / 80 40 10 20 HRI 56 69 51 76 / 80 50 10 0 ELN 48 62 44 69 / 70 50 10 30 RDM 52 62 45 73 / 80 40 10 0 LGD 52 62 44 72 / 100 90 10 10 GCD 53 65 45 76 / 90 70 0 0 DLS 55 66 52 70 / 90 50 10 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-507- 508-510.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026>029- 521.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 241 PM PDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Tuesday...Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon are showing much of the western half of OR/WA under light to moderate rainfall, while radar returns are beginning to fill in across the eastern halves of the states.
Surface observations are showing some of this precip making it to the ground along the Cascade east slopes and into portions of Kittitas/Yakima valleys.
The precipitation spreading across the PacNW this afternoon is associated with a pair of frontal boundaries that are coupled with an upper level trough that is currently off the coast of central BC. The leading warm front of this system will continue to spread bands of rainfall across the intermountain PacNW through tonight, with the cold front following behind late tonight through tomorrow morning with rain showers. These frontal systems are being supported by a moderate Atmospheric River, in which ECMWF and GFS ensemble means show a Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) of between 500-750 kg/m*s, which translates to PWATS between 1 to 1.25 inches across the PacNW. The AR will be aimed at the PacNW through tomorrow late tomorrow morning, resulting in peak rainfall amounts occurring through this time period. Through tomorrow morning, the Cascade crest and upper slopes, the Northern Blues, and the Wallowas can anticipate rainfall accumulations between 1.25 to 2 inches; 0.5-1.25 inches across portions of the Southern Blues, Simcoe Highlands, Wallowa county and the WA Blue mountain foothills; 0.25 to 0.5 inches OR Blue Mountain foothills, Grande Ronde valley, and Ochoco-John Day Highlands; 0.1 to 0.25 across the eastern half of the Columbia Basin and Horse Heaven Hills; and up to 0.1 inches across central and north central OR, western half of the Columbia Basin, and the Yakima/Kittitas valleys. As the trough drops into the PacNW and the cold front exits to the east tomorrow, shower activity will mainly be confined along the Cascade crest, with mainly light showers across the eastern mountains. There will also be isolated thunderstorm chances across the Strawberries, Blues, and Wallowas with a heavy downpour or two possible in the late morning through the afternoon tomorrow.
Windy conditions will also be present through Monday as the cold front moves across the intermountain PacNW. The frontal passage and the upper trough approach will tighten the cross-Cascade pressure gradients, producing windy conditions through the gaps and into the lower elevations. Wind gusts between 45-55 mph and sustained winds between 25-35 mph will impact the Basin, eastern Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, north central OR, Blue Mtn foothills, and the Yakima/Kittitas valleys beginning mid morning and persisting into the evening. Wind advisories have been issued for these areas. Otherwise, sustained winds across the remaining lower elevation areas will increase to 20-25mph and gusts up to 40mph tomorrow.
Winds and shower activity will decrease across the forecast area Monday evening as the upper trough exits into ID and western MT.
However, a moist westerly flow aloft and a shortwave passage Tuesday will continue to produce light rain showers across the Cascade crest. Locally breezy to breezy winds will redevelop Tuesday as the shortwave tightens cross-Cascade pressure gradient once more, however winds will only increase to 15-25mph and gusts up to 40mph in the lower elevations.
While widespread impacts from the increased rainfall across the region is not expected, the heavy rainfall and subsequent snow melt along the Cascades will lead to rises through area rivers and streams. With how dry it's been, however, many of these rivers/streams are forecast to stay will within bankfull...except for the Naches River near Naches and Cliffdell where river forecasts put river levels just over bankfull. Outside of main stem rivers/streams, rapid rises may be possible on smaller streams and creeks during the period of heaviest precipitation, especially those originating out of the Wallowa mountains.
Lawhorn/82
LONG TERM
Wednesday through Sunday...Models are in good agreement about having a ridge over the western CONUS through most of the long term period though differences about the location of the ridge axis and the strength of the ridge grow increasingly over time and these differences make big differences to the forecast of our area. Model ensemble member clusters start out Wednesday with unanimous agreement in having the ridge axis along the Washington/Oregon/Idaho border and just some minor differences as to the strength of the ridge. On Thursday, 38 percent of the members (mainly from the ECMWF) keep the ridge axis stationary from Wednesday while the rest of the model ensemble members move the ridge axis east over Idaho and Montana with a southwesterly flow developing over our area. On Friday, 52 percent of the members (again mostly the ECMWF) develop a negatively tilted ridge with the ridge axis extending from northern Nevada to the British Columbia coast while the other model clusters keep the ridge axis over the Rockies and develop a stronger southwesterly flow over our area. Saturday is very similar to Friday though the ECMWF led clusters and the GFS/Canadian led clusters develop differences as to whether the ridge will be strong or very strong.
The GFS/Canadian led clusters also have a trough about 800-1000 miles offshore approaching the area which maintains the southwesterly flow aloft and nudges the ridge slightly further east.
By Sunday, differences become much larger. 66 percent of the model clusters (ECMWF with some support for the GFS) have the trough offshore weakening into a weak closed low with a ridge axis over eastern Oregon and Washington while 23 percent have a stronger trough still offshore with a strong ridge over the Rockies. The remaining 11 percent have a deep trough at the coast with a weaker ridge over the Rockies.
The Extreme Forecast Index shows no significant weather Wednesday and just some signals for unusual heat (0.7 - 0.8) over the eastern mountains and Oregon Cascades. Saturday and Sunday, the heat values rise to 0.6 to 0.9 with the higher values mainly over Oregon. There are also some shift of tails indicating that the uncertainty of the ridge location and strength may make more extreme temperatures possible. Additionally next weekend, CAPE values rise to 0.6 - 0.9 from the Oregon Cascades over the eastern mountains and this will suggest afternoon thunderstorms on those days. Overall forecast confidence starts out good and becomes below normal by next weekend.
Wednesday will be a dry and sunny day with highs rising 5 to 8 degrees to the mid 70s to lower 80s with mid 60s to mid 70s in the mountains. Thursday will be similar with high temperatures rising 4 to 7 more degrees to the mid 70s to mid 80s. A few late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the Ochoco-John Day Highlands near Seneca.
On Friday, temperatures rise another 4 to 7 degrees with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower elevations and in the mid 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. The NBM has the Columbia Basin and Columbia Gorge at a 70-85 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees, the Yakima Valley at a 64 percent chance and the Blue Mountain Foothills at a 40-50 percent chance. Late afternoon thunderstorms return to the Ochoco-John Day Highlands with a little greater coverage and extend into the John Day area.
Saturday warms another 2-4 degrees according to the NBM with highs of 88-98 in the lower elevations and in the mid 70s to mid 80s in the mountains. The NBM also shows the Columbia Basin with an 85-95 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees, the Blue Mountain Foothills a 65-75 percent chance and a 45-55 percent in central Oregon. There is also a 30-45 percent chance of reaching 100 degrees from Hermiston north to the Tri-Cities. However, the NBM also shows an increasing spread of 5 to 8 degrees between the 25th and 75th high temperature percentiles, reflecting the growing uncertainty in the forecast.
With the increasing heat, there will be increasing instability and a slight chance to chance of afternoon showers over the mountains and perhaps the Blue Mountain Foothills. Have limited mention of thunderstorms to the central Oregon Cascades and the Ochoco-John day Highlands northeast into Wallowa County.
Temperatures cool about 5 degrees on Sunday to the mid 80s to mid 90s with mid 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. The NBM spread between the 25th to 75th percentiles increases to as much as 10 degrees showing the increasing uncertainty in the forecast. Once again have a slight chance to chance of showers in the Cascades, eastern mountains and Blue Mountain Foothills with a slight chance of thunderstorms limited to the eastern mountains. Perry/83
AVIATION
Previous Discussion
18Z TAFs
An incoming wet system will bring rain and lowering ceilings to all TAF sites this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Low end VFR conditions will be prevalent though periods of MVFR CIGs and VSBY will be possible with the heavier rain from 00Z- 06Z. Winds today will be west to southwest at 8 to 18 kts with gusts to 25 kts except a few kts higher at KBDN. Winds will decrease in the late evening then begin picking up again after 14Z becoming westerly at 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 30 kts through 18Z. Winds will increase further after 18Z tomorrow morning. Perry/83
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
PDT 53 64 48 72 / 90 70 10 10 ALW 55 67 50 72 / 90 90 10 20 PSC 57 71 54 77 / 80 50 10 10 YKM 51 67 47 73 / 80 40 10 20 HRI 56 69 51 76 / 80 50 10 0 ELN 48 62 44 69 / 70 50 10 30 RDM 52 62 45 73 / 80 40 10 0 LGD 52 62 44 72 / 100 90 10 10 GCD 53 65 45 76 / 90 70 0 0 DLS 55 66 52 70 / 90 50 10 20
PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-507- 508-510.
WA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026>029- 521.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHRI HERMISTON MUNI,OR | 23 sm | 34 min | NNW 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 64°F | 54°F | 68% | 29.75 |
Pendleton, OR,
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