Sunrise 5:35 AM   Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 2:06 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 138 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Showers.Tonight - South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Monday - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Tuesday - Light and variable winds. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 021948 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 348 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will bring some rain showers to WNY today into this evening. Low cloudiness and some areas of fog will be possible tonight across portions of Western New York. Mainly dry weather returns Monday but a shower or isolated shower will be possible in the afternoon. The next chance for showers and storms will arrive by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As a weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to our forecast area through this evening. The best shot at seeing shower activity will be found from the Genesee Valley west across WNY
East of Lake Ontario
most locales likely won't see much other than just an increase in cloud coverage.

Otherwise...QPF amount of no more than a few hundredths of an inch at best expected over any given location.

Highs today will be a bit cooler in the 60s to low 70 west of Genesee Valley due to cloud cover
Elsewhere
highs will be in the mid to upper 70s near 80F where there will likely be more sunshine.

Tonight...light winds and residual moisture following what little rainfall we do receive will allow for low stratus and some patchy fog overnight
Otherwise
lows will range through the mid 50s to around 60.

Monday...mainly dry weather as weak mid-level ridging builds into the region
That said
an isolated shower or thunderstorm will still be possible during peak heating. Highs will be found solidly in the 70s to low 80s in spots.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Ridging aloft will remain in place through Tuesday night keeping mainly dry conditions intact, before a cold front slowly crosses the region bringing showers and thunderstorms to western and northcentral NY midweek. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will move from eastern NY to the New England coast by Tuesday night allowing for very warm and increasingly humid conditions through Wednesday, before cooler weather starts to filter in across the region Thursday in wake of a cold front.

Mainly dry weather is expected Monday night through most of Tuesday night with high pressure surface and aloft in control of our weather. Other than limited diurnal instability developing second half of Tuesday possibly producing an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon/early evening hours along and inland of any lake breeze circulations, ridging will suppress most if not all convection. Very warm Tuesday with highs averaging about 10 degrees above average, translating to low to mid 80s for much of the area, slightly cooler highest terrain areas. Tolerable humidity levels will hold on for one more day.

Mid/upper level ridge starts to break down and shift east late Tuesday night and Wednesday as upstream deepening trough digs southeastward across the upper and central Great Lakes. At the surface, several boundaries extending from associated low pressure over northwestern Ontario will cross the area from late Tuesday night through Thursday. First will be a weak warm front that may spark off a few showers/isolated storm east of the Finger Lakes late Tuesday night/early Wednesday at moves through. Next up will be a prefrontal trough Wednesday, although overall forcing appears to be fairly weak with this feature. That said, a very moist airmass in place behind the warm front combined with strong diurnal heating may produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and evening. Muggy and warm conditions continue Wednesday, with similar temperatures to Tuesday, however temps will be lower in areas that see more persistent showers and storms.

The main show this time around will be with the actual cold front as it slowly moves east across the area Wednesday night through the first half of Thursday. Severe weather threat with the cold front looks low at this time, especially with the poor diurnal timing. The more notable threat looks to be heavy rain with any stronger thunderstorms (tall skinny CAPE profiles) owed to a slow moving front combined with PWATs upwards of 1.50-1.75 inches. In fact, WPC has our area outlined in a MRGL Risk (5%) for heavy rain during this timeframe. Cold front should clear east of the area by Thursday afternoon, however a cool/moist cyclonic flow aloft associated with a "bowling ball" trailing upper level low combined with an increasingly unstable environment owed to strong diurnal heating will keep the likelihood for showers and storms going through the peak heating hours of the day. The deeper moisture will have been stripped away with the earlier cold frontal passage, significantly lowering the overall heavy rainfall threat. Stronger steering flow aloft will also keep storms moving right along, although steepening low level lapse rates and better shear profiles may allow a few stronger storms to develop. Change back to a cooler regime starts Thursday, with highs mainly in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low forecast confidence for the Thursday night through Sunday timeframe due to an upper level cut off low overhead of the Great Lakes. Said upper level low will also allow a few embedded shortwaves to round its base. This far our its hard to pinpoint the exact location and timing of the shortwaves. Overall this will support a persistent risk of showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. Additionally, if the timing of the shortwave passages align with peak diurnal heating there may be a threat that some thunderstorms become frisky and turn severe. However on the optimistic side of things there will be plenty of rain-free time between shortwave passages.

With the upper level low overhead, expect a cooling trend as continental polar air over Canada filters southeast across the Great Lakes. Highs Friday through Sunday will range in the mid to upper 60s across the higher terrain and the low 70s elsewhere.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to western terminals this afternoon
Otherwise
VFR expected to continue for most terminals...the lone exception will be at KJHW where periodic IFR Cigs will be possible.

Showers will weaken and diminish this evening. Lingering low-level moisture and light wind flow will allow for areas of fog and lowering Cigs areawide tonight. LIFR is likely for the hilltops of the Southern Tier (KJHW), with IFR or low end MVFR expected for KBUF/KIAG/KROC overnight.

Less moisture east of Lake Ontario may leave KART and surrounding area VFR through much of the night.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Low pressure will bring some showers today but winds will remain light with minimal wave action.

A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light winds and minimal waves into mid-week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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