Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 8:55 PM Moonrise 2:08 AM   Moonset 3:39 PM

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LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 138 Pm Edt Sun Jun 2 2024
This afternoon - Southeast winds less than 10 knots. Showers.Tonight - South winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog overnight. Monday - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning. Monday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Tuesday - Light and variable winds. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Thursday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday night.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 021846 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 246 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will bring some rain showers to WNY today into this evening. Low cloudiness and some areas of fog will be possible tonight across portions of Western New York. Mainly dry weather returns Monday but a shower or isolated shower will be possible in the afternoon. The next chance for showers and storms will arrive by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As a weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to our forecast area through this evening. The best shot at seeing shower activity will be found from the Genesee Valley west across WNY
East of Lake Ontario
most locales likely won't see much other than just an increase in cloud coverage.

Otherwise...QPF amount of no more than a few hundredths of an inch at best expected over any given location.

Highs today will be a bit cooler in the 60s to low 70 west of Genesee Valley due to cloud cover
Elsewhere
highs will be in the mid to upper 70s near 80F where there will likely be more sunshine.

Tonight...light winds and residual moisture following what little rainfall we do receive will allow for low stratus and some patchy fog overnight
Otherwise
lows will range through the mid 50s to around 60.

Monday...mainly dry weather as weak mid-level ridging builds into the region
That said
an isolated shower or thunderstorm will still be possible during peak heating. Highs will be found solidly in the 70s to low 80s in spots.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A weak mid-level ridge will remain over the region Tuesday. Limited diurnal instability will develop again which may produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm, but the ridging should suppress most if not all convection. Highs Tuesday will mainly be found in the 80s.

Ridging surface and aloft will shift east across New England Tuesday night, while a deepening upper level trough will approach the region from the west. This will bring a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm late Tuesday night. Otherwise it will be rather humid and muggy with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A closed upper level low will move across the Great Lakes region during the period. This will establish a wet pattern with a cooling trend for the long term period.

Temperatures will start off well above normal on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However 00Z model guidance pushes a warm frontal segment across the area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Convection along this front will have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours since the warm and moist air mass will feature PWAT values around 1.75 inches. This feature has the best chance to produce widespread precipitation, supporting likely PoPs with its passage.

After this, forecast confidence diminishes since it will depend on the position of the upper low and subtle embedded shortwaves which are difficult to resolve at this timeframe. In general there will be a persistent risk of showers/isolated thunderstorms which will be maximized during the afternoon hours corresponding to peak daytime heating. However, there also will be plenty of rain-free time between shortwaves and most of the nighttime. As the upper low settles near or across the region, temperatures will become cooler, but even so daytime highs Friday and Saturday will only be slightly below normal.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A weakening low pressure system will bring some showers to western terminals this afternoon
Otherwise
VFR expected to continue for most terminals...the lone exception will be at KJHW where periodic IFR Cigs will be possible.

Showers will weaken and diminish this evening. Lingering low-level moisture and light wind flow will allow for areas of fog and lowering Cigs areawide tonight. LIFR is likely for the hilltops of the Southern Tier (KJHW), with IFR or low end MVFR expected for KBUF/KIAG/KROC overnight.

Less moisture east of Lake Ontario may leave KART and surrounding area VFR through much of the night.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
Thursday and Friday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Low pressure will bring some showers today but winds will remain light with minimal wave action.

A weak pressure gradient will continue to maintain light winds and minimal waves into mid-week.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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