Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for International Falls, MN
June 2, 2024 5:06 PM CDT (22:06 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:15 AM Sunset 9:03 PM Moonrise 2:00 AM Moonset 3:46 PM |
FXUS63 KDLH 022018 AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 318 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and severe weather in north-central Minnesota will arrive this evening and last through Monday morning before showers become more localized in coverage Monday daytime.
- The threat of tornadoes in north-central Minnesota from severe weather this evening has decreased as of this morning, with damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail around an inch in diameter as the primary hazards late this evening and early tonight remaining mainly in north-central Minnesota.
- Areas of dense fog are very likely (60-80% chance) Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
- Another system will bring more heavy rain and severe weather Tuesday daytime. This time the better chances are along and south of the Iron Range across much of the Northland.
- Localized strong thunderstorms are expected Wednesday daytime, first in northern Minnesota before moving into northwest Wisconsin and central Minnesota later in the afternoon.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Low pressure over the northern High Plains is lifting a warm front into the Upper Midwest this afternoon. Radar shows a very weak line of pre-warm frontal rain showers in the Borderlands exiting into northwest Ontario over the next hour or two. So far today, this has been the only rain showers or storms in the Northland, but this is expected to change into the 4-6 PM CT hours today as a cluster of general thunderstorms presently in western Minnesota moves northward into the Brainerd Lakes area and eventually into inland northwest Wisconsin in the early evening hours. These thunderstorms move north-northeastward into the mid-evening hours, but severe weather is not generally expected from this first round of showers and general storms.
As the low pressure moves eastward though into the eastern Dakotas, a line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is expected to be moving into northwest Minnesota late this evening (8-10 PM hours). The current Slight Risk for severe weather highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center covering Crow Wing and Cass Counties (highest of all chances, about 15% for severe weather) and Itasca and Koochiching (still some chance, but lesser than counties immediately southward) does a fair job of showing the location where that line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms could (10-15% chance, but confidence has decreased over the last 24 hours) impact first in north- central Minnesota around the 10 PM - Midnight hours. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail up to a half-dollar in size are the primary hazards for late evening into early overnight tonight in the Brainerd Lakes and north- central Minnesota region. The limiting factors on whether this line of thunderstorms does impact Cass/Crow Wing and other parts of the Northland will be if the isolated storms earlier in the evening highly limit instability and whether the line of strong/locally severe storms moves off of the cold pool and dissipates in strength from the northeast sector and shifts primarily southwestward into mainly central Minnesota.
Either way on the severe weather side, there are good signals in precipitation guidance for most locations in the Northland to see a quarter of three-quarters of an inch of rainfall by early Monday morning as the then-mainly moderate rain showers and isolated general thunderstorms exit last through north-central Wisconsin. Very localized instability rain showers are still expected though for most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday daytime, but less than a tenth of an inch of rain would be expected.
A short-lived and weak high pressure Monday night sets up in northeast MN and northwest Wisconsin between the departing and shortly- incoming low pressure for Tuesday. Calm surface winds aided by enough of a low-level inversion trapping the moisture from earlier Monday is expected to create areas of dense fog Monday night into early Tuesday. Advection fog off Lake Superior could even produce widespread dense fog into the Twin Ports and across the Arrowhead in this time period. A stronger southerly gradient over north-central Minnesota by early Tuesday morning helps to limit all but patchy fog potential in those western forecast locations. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed over the next few forecast packages covering Monday night into Tuesday morning visibilities down to 1/4 mile.
The previously-mentioned mid-levels low pressure for Tuesday enters the southern Canadian Prairies, while retrograding and deepening to become negatively tilted as a surface low extends into the MN/ND/Manitoba border region by Tuesday early afternoon. This setup creates a possibly even better severe storm environment for much of the Northland Tuesday compared to this evening. Deterministic guidance points to available instability around 1500 J/kg of CAPE, very deep southerly flow advecting in high precipitable water of 1.3-1.6 inches in the column aloft and bulk 0-6km shear of 35 to 40 knots supporting storm growth high enough for large hail, wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rainfall (localized amounts around 2") in localized parts of the Northland along and south of the Iron Range.
The cold front moves through the region Tuesday evening to bring an end to storm chances last in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead by later Tuesday evening.
As the mid-level low pressure over southern Canada shifts eastward on Wednesday, expect localized strong to near-severe thunderstorm potential mainly in northern and central Minnesota Wednesday afternoon potentially moving into northwest Wisconsin, depending upon the location of mid-level steering flow from where the low pressure sets up, later Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Deterministic forecast soundings show potential for pea to dime size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph currently, but the strength of if the storms can break a cap aloft could produce the near-severe concerns. Marginal lapse rates aloft currently for Wednesday daytime do not show great potential for anything above near-severe at this point though.
Gusty west-northwest winds are expected to gust from 35 to 40 mph Wednesday into Thursday evening, with a 40% chance of gusts around 45 mph in mainly near and south of US Hwy 2 in northern Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early June on Thursday warm to only slightly or near-normal for the weekend as off-and-on general thunderstorm chances (20-30%) persist mainly in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A warm front lifting over the Northland this afternoon creates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances at most northern Minnesota terminals through 03Z Monday. Small hail is possible from the stronger thunderstorms through this mid- evening time period. The better chances of severe weather producing damaging wind gusts around 40-50 kts and large hail around an inch in diameter enter north-central Minnesota, especially around BRD, after 03Z and lasting through 09Z in northeast Minnesota. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to trail to primary line of thunderstorms clearing last in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead early Monday morning before lifting and scouring out from 15-18Z Monday. There is high uncertainty on when those ceilings lift and scour out though at area terminals so left lower-vis/cig restrictions in the TAFs for now until confidence increases on that timing.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
East-northeast winds gusting 15 to 20 knots in the southwestern arm continue into this evening and are creating wave heights to 2 feet. Strong thunderstorms may (20% chance) move over the Twin Ports and South Shore, much lesser chances along the North Shore, after 10 PM this evening and last into the pre-dawn hours Monday morning. After a forecast 0.2 to 0.4 inches of rainfall over the lake, patchy fog is expected to form Monday and linger into Monday night. Dense fog is most likely Monday night into Tuesday and could, in-time, require a Dense Fog Advisory for much of the western waters. Better chances for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms build Tuesday afternoon and evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 318 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and severe weather in north-central Minnesota will arrive this evening and last through Monday morning before showers become more localized in coverage Monday daytime.
- The threat of tornadoes in north-central Minnesota from severe weather this evening has decreased as of this morning, with damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail around an inch in diameter as the primary hazards late this evening and early tonight remaining mainly in north-central Minnesota.
- Areas of dense fog are very likely (60-80% chance) Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
- Another system will bring more heavy rain and severe weather Tuesday daytime. This time the better chances are along and south of the Iron Range across much of the Northland.
- Localized strong thunderstorms are expected Wednesday daytime, first in northern Minnesota before moving into northwest Wisconsin and central Minnesota later in the afternoon.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Low pressure over the northern High Plains is lifting a warm front into the Upper Midwest this afternoon. Radar shows a very weak line of pre-warm frontal rain showers in the Borderlands exiting into northwest Ontario over the next hour or two. So far today, this has been the only rain showers or storms in the Northland, but this is expected to change into the 4-6 PM CT hours today as a cluster of general thunderstorms presently in western Minnesota moves northward into the Brainerd Lakes area and eventually into inland northwest Wisconsin in the early evening hours. These thunderstorms move north-northeastward into the mid-evening hours, but severe weather is not generally expected from this first round of showers and general storms.
As the low pressure moves eastward though into the eastern Dakotas, a line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms is expected to be moving into northwest Minnesota late this evening (8-10 PM hours). The current Slight Risk for severe weather highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center covering Crow Wing and Cass Counties (highest of all chances, about 15% for severe weather) and Itasca and Koochiching (still some chance, but lesser than counties immediately southward) does a fair job of showing the location where that line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms could (10-15% chance, but confidence has decreased over the last 24 hours) impact first in north- central Minnesota around the 10 PM - Midnight hours. Damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and large hail up to a half-dollar in size are the primary hazards for late evening into early overnight tonight in the Brainerd Lakes and north- central Minnesota region. The limiting factors on whether this line of thunderstorms does impact Cass/Crow Wing and other parts of the Northland will be if the isolated storms earlier in the evening highly limit instability and whether the line of strong/locally severe storms moves off of the cold pool and dissipates in strength from the northeast sector and shifts primarily southwestward into mainly central Minnesota.
Either way on the severe weather side, there are good signals in precipitation guidance for most locations in the Northland to see a quarter of three-quarters of an inch of rainfall by early Monday morning as the then-mainly moderate rain showers and isolated general thunderstorms exit last through north-central Wisconsin. Very localized instability rain showers are still expected though for most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday daytime, but less than a tenth of an inch of rain would be expected.
A short-lived and weak high pressure Monday night sets up in northeast MN and northwest Wisconsin between the departing and shortly- incoming low pressure for Tuesday. Calm surface winds aided by enough of a low-level inversion trapping the moisture from earlier Monday is expected to create areas of dense fog Monday night into early Tuesday. Advection fog off Lake Superior could even produce widespread dense fog into the Twin Ports and across the Arrowhead in this time period. A stronger southerly gradient over north-central Minnesota by early Tuesday morning helps to limit all but patchy fog potential in those western forecast locations. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed over the next few forecast packages covering Monday night into Tuesday morning visibilities down to 1/4 mile.
The previously-mentioned mid-levels low pressure for Tuesday enters the southern Canadian Prairies, while retrograding and deepening to become negatively tilted as a surface low extends into the MN/ND/Manitoba border region by Tuesday early afternoon. This setup creates a possibly even better severe storm environment for much of the Northland Tuesday compared to this evening. Deterministic guidance points to available instability around 1500 J/kg of CAPE, very deep southerly flow advecting in high precipitable water of 1.3-1.6 inches in the column aloft and bulk 0-6km shear of 35 to 40 knots supporting storm growth high enough for large hail, wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rainfall (localized amounts around 2") in localized parts of the Northland along and south of the Iron Range.
The cold front moves through the region Tuesday evening to bring an end to storm chances last in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead by later Tuesday evening.
As the mid-level low pressure over southern Canada shifts eastward on Wednesday, expect localized strong to near-severe thunderstorm potential mainly in northern and central Minnesota Wednesday afternoon potentially moving into northwest Wisconsin, depending upon the location of mid-level steering flow from where the low pressure sets up, later Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. Deterministic forecast soundings show potential for pea to dime size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph currently, but the strength of if the storms can break a cap aloft could produce the near-severe concerns. Marginal lapse rates aloft currently for Wednesday daytime do not show great potential for anything above near-severe at this point though.
Gusty west-northwest winds are expected to gust from 35 to 40 mph Wednesday into Thursday evening, with a 40% chance of gusts around 45 mph in mainly near and south of US Hwy 2 in northern Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin.
Temperatures about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for early June on Thursday warm to only slightly or near-normal for the weekend as off-and-on general thunderstorm chances (20-30%) persist mainly in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
A warm front lifting over the Northland this afternoon creates isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm chances at most northern Minnesota terminals through 03Z Monday. Small hail is possible from the stronger thunderstorms through this mid- evening time period. The better chances of severe weather producing damaging wind gusts around 40-50 kts and large hail around an inch in diameter enter north-central Minnesota, especially around BRD, after 03Z and lasting through 09Z in northeast Minnesota. IFR ceilings and visibility are expected to trail to primary line of thunderstorms clearing last in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead early Monday morning before lifting and scouring out from 15-18Z Monday. There is high uncertainty on when those ceilings lift and scour out though at area terminals so left lower-vis/cig restrictions in the TAFs for now until confidence increases on that timing.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
East-northeast winds gusting 15 to 20 knots in the southwestern arm continue into this evening and are creating wave heights to 2 feet. Strong thunderstorms may (20% chance) move over the Twin Ports and South Shore, much lesser chances along the North Shore, after 10 PM this evening and last into the pre-dawn hours Monday morning. After a forecast 0.2 to 0.4 inches of rainfall over the lake, patchy fog is expected to form Monday and linger into Monday night. Dense fog is most likely Monday night into Tuesday and could, in-time, require a Dense Fog Advisory for much of the western waters. Better chances for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms build Tuesday afternoon and evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KINL FALLS INTLEINARSON FIELD,MN | 1 sm | 12 min | SSE 06 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 52°F | 50% | 29.79 |
Duluth, MN,
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