Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Laporte, PA
June 2, 2024 11:34 AM EDT (15:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:30 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 1:58 AM Moonset 3:24 PM |
Area Discussion for - State College, PA
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FXUS61 KCTP 021441 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1041 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A southwesterly flow of increasingly moist air ahead of weak low pressure over the Great Lakes region will bring showers today across the Western Mountains of the state with scattered mid to late afternoon showers possible across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley.
It will turn warmer with moderate humidity Monday and Tuesday along with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and evening.
A slow moving cold front will cross the region during the middle of the week bringing the best chance for rain/storms, then an upper level trough will build over the region late week into next weekend with more unsettled weather expected.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Clouds will gradually thicken up and lower to under 8 KFT AGL across the Western Mtns late this morning, across the Central Mtns early this afternoon, and east of the Susq Valley late in the afternoon/early this evening. PWATS will rise from 0.5 to 0.7 inches this morning to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches this afternoon. As such, rain showing up on radar may not necessarily equate to rain reaching the ground through the morning hours.
Additionally, very little low level convergence is present within the warm sector spread across our region, nor is there any significant larger scale deep layer forcing beneath the favorable quads of a jet. As such, precipitation amounts should be light. HRRR 12 hour amounts ending at 00Z or 06Z Monday are generally under 0.10" with a few spotty 0.20" + amounts possible across Central and Western PA. MU CAPE is mainly under 250 J/KG later today and tonight, however, 925-850 mb based LIs are about -1C over Southern PA from 22Z today to 05Z Sunday. So a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out from isolated/embedded low- topped TSRA.
High temps this afternoon (before any -SHRA move in from the west) will vary from the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain of Northern and Western PA. to around 80 in the Southeast. Surging dewpoints overnight will be a sign of more moisture in the air. For locations that get precipitation today and see some clearing overnight, patchy fog will be possible.
Low confidence in fog coverage based on uncertainty with overnight cloud cover, but can't rule out some instances of valley fog on Monday morning. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the northwest to low 60s southeast.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A very weak cold frontal boundary will push south across the state early in the period before washing out as it nears the Mason/Dixon line on Monday.
Building upper level ridge to 580dm should favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, the airmass will be trending warmer and more humid with just a bubble of weak sfc high pressure drifting from Lake Ontario on Monday to the New England Coast by early Tuesday. As a result, we can't rule out spotty diurnally driven convection. Have gone with isolated wording for shower/storm potential as pinning down the exact location of storms is difficult in this type of pattern.
High temps both Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 70s across the highest elevations of the North and West to the low- mid 80s in the Southern Valleys.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the Grt Lks should result in showery weather Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, latest medium range guidance shows a surface high parked along the New England coast, which will likely keep Central and Eastern PA relatively stable, with a limited risk of severe weather. The most concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-Thu is around a half inch.
Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday/Saturday, as the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally- driven showers appear probable, especially over the NW Mtns, associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over the Grt Lks.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid and high clouds over central PA at sunrise resulted in a really nice sunrise here at the office.
Anyway, a weak low pressure system tracking northeast across the lower Great Lakes area today. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken today. Some showers will be possible by early afternoon across far western areas. Far southeastern areas may not see much if any rain late today.
Some fog and lower CIGS will be possible late, mainly across the west.
Outlook...
Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.
Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA at times with restrictions possible.
CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings
Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring
Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring
Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring
Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1041 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
A southwesterly flow of increasingly moist air ahead of weak low pressure over the Great Lakes region will bring showers today across the Western Mountains of the state with scattered mid to late afternoon showers possible across the Central Mountains and Susquehanna Valley.
It will turn warmer with moderate humidity Monday and Tuesday along with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and evening.
A slow moving cold front will cross the region during the middle of the week bringing the best chance for rain/storms, then an upper level trough will build over the region late week into next weekend with more unsettled weather expected.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Clouds will gradually thicken up and lower to under 8 KFT AGL across the Western Mtns late this morning, across the Central Mtns early this afternoon, and east of the Susq Valley late in the afternoon/early this evening. PWATS will rise from 0.5 to 0.7 inches this morning to between 1.25 and 1.5 inches this afternoon. As such, rain showing up on radar may not necessarily equate to rain reaching the ground through the morning hours.
Additionally, very little low level convergence is present within the warm sector spread across our region, nor is there any significant larger scale deep layer forcing beneath the favorable quads of a jet. As such, precipitation amounts should be light. HRRR 12 hour amounts ending at 00Z or 06Z Monday are generally under 0.10" with a few spotty 0.20" + amounts possible across Central and Western PA. MU CAPE is mainly under 250 J/KG later today and tonight, however, 925-850 mb based LIs are about -1C over Southern PA from 22Z today to 05Z Sunday. So a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out from isolated/embedded low- topped TSRA.
High temps this afternoon (before any -SHRA move in from the west) will vary from the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain of Northern and Western PA. to around 80 in the Southeast. Surging dewpoints overnight will be a sign of more moisture in the air. For locations that get precipitation today and see some clearing overnight, patchy fog will be possible.
Low confidence in fog coverage based on uncertainty with overnight cloud cover, but can't rule out some instances of valley fog on Monday morning. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the northwest to low 60s southeast.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A very weak cold frontal boundary will push south across the state early in the period before washing out as it nears the Mason/Dixon line on Monday.
Building upper level ridge to 580dm should favor lower POPs Mon-Tue. However, the airmass will be trending warmer and more humid with just a bubble of weak sfc high pressure drifting from Lake Ontario on Monday to the New England Coast by early Tuesday. As a result, we can't rule out spotty diurnally driven convection. Have gone with isolated wording for shower/storm potential as pinning down the exact location of storms is difficult in this type of pattern.
High temps both Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 70s across the highest elevations of the North and West to the low- mid 80s in the Southern Valleys.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of a deepening upper level trough over the Grt Lks should result in showery weather Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, latest medium range guidance shows a surface high parked along the New England coast, which will likely keep Central and Eastern PA relatively stable, with a limited risk of severe weather. The most concentrated showers and possible tsra should come with the passage of the low level jet just ahead of the cold/occluded front passage Wed PM into early Thursday. Ensemble plumes suggest most likely areal average rainfall Wed-Thu is around a half inch.
Latest GEFS and EPS indicate drier weather Friday/Saturday, as the low level jet/plume of highest pwats shift east of PA with the exiting cold/occluded front. However, scattered, diurnally- driven showers appear probable, especially over the NW Mtns, associated with the deep upper trough/closed low parked over the Grt Lks.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid and high clouds over central PA at sunrise resulted in a really nice sunrise here at the office.
Anyway, a weak low pressure system tracking northeast across the lower Great Lakes area today. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken today. Some showers will be possible by early afternoon across far western areas. Far southeastern areas may not see much if any rain late today.
Some fog and lower CIGS will be possible late, mainly across the west.
Outlook...
Mon...Patchy AM fog, slight chance of PM t-storms.
Tue-Thu...SHRA and TSRA at times with restrictions possible.
CLIMATE
Prelim May and Spring 2024 Temperature & Precipitation Rankings
Harrisburg: T12th warmest; 76th driest May T3rd warmest; 33rd wettest Spring
Williamsport: 9th warmest; 22nd wettest May 4th warmest; 11th wettest Spring
Altoona: 9th warmest; 13th wettest May 2nd warmest; 3rd wettest Spring
Bradford: 4th warmest; 36th driest May Warmest; 21st wettest Spring
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Binghamton, NY,
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