Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 9:38 PM Moonrise 2:33 AM   Moonset 4:10 PM

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LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 859 Am Cdt Sun Jun 2 2024
two rivers wi to manistee mi north - .
Rest of today - Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming west. Waves 1 ft or less. Tonight - Southwest winds 5 to 10 kt backing to southeast. Waves nearly calm. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Thursday - West winds 10 to 20 kt increasing to 15 to 25 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 021903 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 303 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated afternoon showers possible interior eastern Upper MI due to converging lake breezes.
- A round of showers and storms moves into the far western UP by early Monday morning.
- Frequent opportunities for showers and thunderstorms over the next 7 days, with a break expected today and possibly Tuesday.
- Above normal temperatures through the first half of the week, then turning cooler for the last half and next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Skies remain sunny across the area with weak ridging sliding over the Great Lakes and plenty of dry midlevel air in place. Still, some agitated cu is firing across the eastern UP, with converging lake breezes off of Superior and Lake Michigan. Cloud tops remain fairly low so far, and latest model and NUCAPS profiles still show some thermal capping aloft. If this can be overcome, though, a few showers out east cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise, temperatures across most of the UP are climbing well into the 70s, but are a little cooler (mainly 60s) along the shorelines of the Great Lakes. Dewpoints are dropping into the lower 40s and even upper 30s in the interior-western UP, but light winds continue to limit our fire weather concerns.

Meanwhile, RAP analysis shows midlevel troughing digging into the Plains, with tightening 850mb flow and WAA over MN already touching off some convection. This feature will continue to swing NE towards the Great Lakes into tonight while phasing with another wave currently moving across southern Saskatchewan. Showers finally reach the far western UP by the early hours of Monday, while a LLJ core becoming directed over the area potentially lending some divergence.
Some thunder will not be ruled out, but given an unfavorable onset timing during the pre-dawn hours, would not expect any severe convection.

Expect an otherwise mild night under increasing clouds. Temperatures likely won't fall below the 50 degree mark over most of the UP, save the far east, where clear skies hold out the longest. There, we may dip into the upper 40s.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Mostly clear skies this evening give way to rain showers and a few thunderstorms over the far western U.P. by Monday morning as a cold front begins pushing into the area. With clouds moving in tonight over the west half in particular, expect lows over the west half to be in the 50s to near 60 over the far west. Meanwhile, with less cloud cover overhead, expect lows to get down to around 50 in the east. No severe weather is expected Monday as the cloud coverage will limit CAPE and lapse rates; in addition, bulk shear values look to generally be less than 30 knots. That being said, it is still possible that we could see a stronger cell or two that could produce gusty winds and small hail. With the NAEFS and European ensembles showing PWATs above 1.25 inches (which is above the 90th percentile of modeled climatology), we could see some heavy rainfall at times over the western half of the U.P. Monday. While the heavy rainfall looks to be very sporadic in nature, there is a chance (30-50%) that we could see some isolated spots get above 1 inch of liquid before the sun sets; hopefully, this will alleviate the remaining moderate drought concerns over in the western U
P
As the front slowly makes its way into the central and eventually eastern portions of Upper Michigan late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, CAMs show convective activity dwindling as frontogenesis weakens. Therefore, lighter rainfall amounts are expected across the eastern half of the U.P. late Monday.

While it looks like some weak high pressure ridging moves over the area Monday night into Tuesday, model guidance has trended up rain chances slightly over the past 24 hours. Therefore, the predicted cloud cover has increased a little since yesterday morning, with partly to mostly cloudy skies now expected across the area as a weak shortwave is expected to precede a second cold front approaching from the Northern Plains. The shortwave could bring some light rain showers and a couple of thunderstorms across the area early Tuesday, particularly over the south central and east where the chances are highest (15-25%). Warm air advection moving over the area Tuesday will allow for high temperatures to get well above normal, with spots in the interior west and possibly east getting above 80 degrees. Given the moisture from the Gulf and somewhat cloudy skies overhead, we could see dewpoints get into the mid to upper 60s in a few places, mainly over the interior west (a.k.a. it may feel a bit muggy). With the cold front looking to arrive during mainly the overnight hours, severe thunderstorms aren't expected. However, with the exact timing of the front's arrival not pinned down quite yet, some model guidance showing MUCAPE over 1000+ J/kg during the early evening hours (and 100s+ J/kg in the overnight hours), and bulk shear values in the 30 to 40 knot range, severe storms cannot be completely ruled out, even though the chance right now is very small (<2%); the location with the best chance for severe weather late Tuesday is currently the far west. The cold front continues through the U.P. through Wednesday, as the rainfall marches eastward with the front. As the showers and storms associated with the front are exiting the eastern U.P. Wednesday afternoon, a secondary shortwave moving into the western U.P. behind the front could bring additional showers and thunderstorms back across the area behind it.

The above normal temperatures we've been enjoying look to come to an end for the last half of the week as a low pressure settles over northern Ontario and sends cold air advection and multiple weak shortwaves across our area from late Wednesday through this next weekend. As this occurs, expect highs to drop into the 60s and for lows to get into the 40s, which is below normal for this time of year. In addition, light rainfall chances are expected from Thursday onwards due to the shortwaves rotating over our area; while we may see a rumble of thunder here or there during peak heating hours, given the cooler temperatures, thunderstorm activity should be less common.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR prevails at all terminals the rest of today into tonight with a ridge over the area. An approaching disturbance tonight may spread some -shra into IWD and CMX late tonight, but there is higher confidence in shower activity after 12Z Monday with ceilings lowering to MVFR. VFR holds on at SAW into tomorrow morning. Ahead of the disturbance, low-level jet will reach western Upper MI late tonight, resulting in LLWS at IWD/CMX. Otherwise, expect winds to remain below 10 knots, of variable direction today due to lake breezes but turning over to the SSE into Monday.

MARINE
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Light winds of 20 knots or less continue today into tonight as weak surface high pressure continues over Lake Superior. However, as a cold front moves through late tonight into Monday, southerly winds look to gust up to 20 to 25 knots Monday, particularly over the central lake and possibly near the south shoreline (especially near the tip of the Keweenaw, where higher wind gusts could be seen).
Once the cold front moves through, the winds die down to 20 knots or less yet again by Monday evening as weak high pressure ridging sprints through the region. The light winds continue until a cold front from the Northern Plains passes west to east across the lake Tuesday night through Wednesday. Behind the front, expect southwest winds to gust up to 20 to 25 knots over the western half of the lake on Wednesday as a secondary shortwave quickly moves through the region. As a parent low sets up shop in northern Ontario for the latter half of the week, expect cold air advection and multiple shortwave lows rotating around the parent low to bring higher west to northwest winds across Lake Superior throughout the rest of the work week and into this next weekend; we could see westerly gusts up to 30 knots as soon as Thursday.

As for other marine hazards, the fog over Lake Superior looks to burn off a few hours after the sunrise this morning as the sun warms the air. A few thunderstorms could be seen over the lake tonight through Monday night from west to east as the first cold front pushes through. The second cold front pushing through looks to bring a few more thunderstorms across the lake from west to east from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. No severe weather is expected at this time, although there is a very low chance (<2%) that we could see some severe weather over the far western lake Tuesday afternoon and evening.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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