Sunrise 5:54 AM   Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 3:38 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 021744 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected between now and Tuesday night. A few stronger storms could produce wind gusts to 60 mph or large hail to the size of half dollars.

- Storm on Monday into Tuesday could carry a heavy rain threat.

- Drier, less humid conditions expected Wednesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Low confidence forecast in terms of timing of convection the next three days. Unstable atmosphere with several weak embedded shortwaves in the zonal flow could ignite periods of thunderstorms across the region. Much of the region remains outlooked for the potential for a few strong storms the next three days.

In the short term, areas of dense fog have begun to develop across central into eastern Missouri. Have issued a small dense fog advisory through 15Z, when low level saturation should begin to mix out as easterly winds become more southeasterly and increase in speed.

Broken line of thunderstorms have formed in eastern Kansas embedded within a broad area of low level warm air advection and within a weak 15-20 knot low level jet across the central plains. This area of warm air/low level moisture advection is expected to spread east through the morning hours, creating the potential for showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS into western Missouri. These storms are relatively slow moving (~10-15 knots), but should approach the KS/Missouri border near sunrise. Instability is largely limited to the KS/Missouri border and areas west; however, this instability expands with diurnal heating and a ready supply of moisture from the Gulf as southerly flow increases. Given this is the case, expect to see dew points climb into the mid and upper 60s throughout the day.

Tough call on how thunderstorms will play out today. HRRR does not have a good handle on the current convection. NAM NEST is slightly better, and shows waves of convection building into the region, especially north of I-70, throughout the day. HRRR has convection dying by 15Z, but think this trend could be overcome if there is ample moisture available near 850 mb, otherwise the capping inversion may hold through the better part of the day. With uncertainty, have broad brushed pops through the day. With increasing instability and shear, could see a marginally strong storm or two, mainly confined to eastern KS into the western few tiers of counties in Missouri.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon along a cold front across western Nebraska. These storms may grow into an MCS tonight across Nebraska as the low level jet increases, potentially building into the region towards 06Z tonight. With strong low level jet tonight of 40-50 knots and the linear mode, the main severe threat with these storms will be damaging winds.

Additional storms are possible on Monday as the thunderstorms weaken as they move deeper south and east potentially creating an outflow boundary to focus convection chances, but with additional mid level disturbances moving across the central US, hard to focus on a specific area or time for thunderstorms. Instability continues to grow throughout the day with surface heating, though wind shear remains very weak. Given PWAT values of 1.5"+, deep warm cloud depths, and weak winds in the mid levels, any storms that form would pose a flash flood risk.

A strong shortwave is expected to move into the Pacific NW on Monday and quickly moving east into the Northern Plains on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to approach the region Tuesday night. With muggy airmass, could see surface based CAPE values approach 3K by late in the day. while mid level wind shear remains better farther north, still could have pulsy strong updrafts or organized line segments/clusters that produce areas of enhanced wind across the region Tuesday night. This front should effectively push the low level moisture southward keeping the second half of the week much quieter than the next few days. With northwest flow hanging on into the weekend, seasonal temperatures are expected with minimal chances of rain after Tuesday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR CIGs and widely scattered showers start this TAF cycle across the Kansas-Missouri state line as they are what is left of a convective complex that moved into east Kansas early this morning. Current showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in central Kansas are not currently expected to make it as far east as our KC terminals, but they will need to be watched carefully. Better chance for storms looks to arrive early Monday morning from another complex of storms moving across Nebraska and Kansas. Timing, and how far the complex pushes into Missouri, are all still very uncertain at this time.



EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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