Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Farnam, NE
June 2, 2024 5:29 PM CDT (22:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:10 AM Sunset 9:11 PM Moonrise 2:35 AM Moonset 4:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - North Platte, NE
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FXUS63 KLBF 021935 AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Potential for a high impact severe event this afternoon through this evening with damaging winds at or above 75mph and large to very large hail in excess of 2" diameter across central and western Nebraska. A brief tornado or two will also be possible.
- Low confidence but potential for a corridor of significant damage from wind driven hail this evening across western Nebraska, as initial supercells begin to grow upscale into a line.
- Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday and Tuesday, though the threat for severe weather appears low at this time, then quiet weather through midweek.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Another round of overnight convection has moved off to our east, though visible satellite imagery clearly shows lingering outflow boundaries with more stable air lingering across central and western Nebraska from roughly Imperial up through O'Neill. Further to the west with little cloud cover diurnal heating has been in full swing with SBCAPE values already approaching 4000J/kg in the western sandhills. Anticipate destabilization will continue in this narrow corridor with mesoscale guidance indicating CAPE values in excess of 4000J/kg by late this afternoon pushing up form the south. Bufkit model soundings show this CAPE to be quite stout offering good support for vigorous updrafts, though some mid level warming will present some CINH to be overcome before initiation of deep convection. Expect the approaching front will offer the necessary forcing to overcome the CINH and trigger development of thunderstorms as it enters the region from the west late this afternoon and moves across the region this evening and exits off to the east before Midnight. Deep layer shear ahead of the front is evident with 0-6km bulk shear at or above 40kt and given the instability anticipate organized storms to initiate and rapidly grow upscale with potential for large to very large hail. Lapse rates are steep form the boundary layer up through mid and upper levels with an inverted-v also noted in model soundings, and given forecast DCAPE values around 1500J/kg expect a very efficient wind environment to facilitate strong, damaging wind gusts. After discrete cells initiate, expect a shallow angle between the mean wind field and the approaching front will allow for clustering of storms and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat quick transition to a linear MCS or one or more bowing segments that will amplify outflow with potential for with gusts at or above 75mph. The greatest uncertainty in potential for severe weather appears to be further to the northeast generally in the bounded area both east of Hwy 83 and north of Hwy 91 where the lingering effects from stable outflow may dampen convection. The severe threat is expected to be progressive and exit the region to the east before Midnight with quiet conditions for the overnight.
A sharp short wave will then dig a trof into the upper midwest and push another cold front into the region late Monday into Monday night with another round of showers and thunderstorms that will linger into Tuesday morning. With the best instability off to our east expect potential for severe storms will be limited but any storms east of Hwy 83 will bear monitoring closely.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
By Tuesday night the front will be pushing off to the east with high pressure surface and aloft building over the region. This will keep quiet weather with above normal temperatures across central and western Nebraska through midweek. Thereafter ensemble guidance is in good agreement in continuing to build the ridge over the western US gradually developing a westward lean to the ridge axis over time. while this will keep us under northwest flow aloft the flow will become more active with short waves sliding down the face of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure moves to our east and sets up southerly return flow of moisture with 90th percentile precipitable water values just off to our west.
Northwest flow aloft with moist southerly flow below will set the stage for a return to more active weather by the end of the week and heading into the weekend. While any severe threat remains undefined, expect the potential for strong storms will be increasing through next weekend due to the favorable shear profiles and returning low level moisture. The gradual westward shift to the upper ridge will also allow for a slight cooling trend to temperatures closer to seasonal normals next weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main aviation concern today will be the chance for thunderstorms, late this afternoon and evening. It is anticipated that a line of thunderstorms will form and move across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska into north central and central Nebraska. This could impact both forecast terminals, KVTN and KLBF, with the greatest chance of storms moving through the early evening hours for the forecast terminals.
MVFR or lower conditions will be possible as thunderstorms impact the terminals, with large hail, strong wind gust of 50kts or more and heavy rainfall.
For this afternoon winds will remain breezy out of the south around 10 to 15 kts with gust of 20 kts or more. Wind winds becoming light and variable overnight. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for most of the forecast period with the exception of thunderstorm impacts.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 235 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Potential for a high impact severe event this afternoon through this evening with damaging winds at or above 75mph and large to very large hail in excess of 2" diameter across central and western Nebraska. A brief tornado or two will also be possible.
- Low confidence but potential for a corridor of significant damage from wind driven hail this evening across western Nebraska, as initial supercells begin to grow upscale into a line.
- Thunderstorm chances persist into Monday and Tuesday, though the threat for severe weather appears low at this time, then quiet weather through midweek.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
Another round of overnight convection has moved off to our east, though visible satellite imagery clearly shows lingering outflow boundaries with more stable air lingering across central and western Nebraska from roughly Imperial up through O'Neill. Further to the west with little cloud cover diurnal heating has been in full swing with SBCAPE values already approaching 4000J/kg in the western sandhills. Anticipate destabilization will continue in this narrow corridor with mesoscale guidance indicating CAPE values in excess of 4000J/kg by late this afternoon pushing up form the south. Bufkit model soundings show this CAPE to be quite stout offering good support for vigorous updrafts, though some mid level warming will present some CINH to be overcome before initiation of deep convection. Expect the approaching front will offer the necessary forcing to overcome the CINH and trigger development of thunderstorms as it enters the region from the west late this afternoon and moves across the region this evening and exits off to the east before Midnight. Deep layer shear ahead of the front is evident with 0-6km bulk shear at or above 40kt and given the instability anticipate organized storms to initiate and rapidly grow upscale with potential for large to very large hail. Lapse rates are steep form the boundary layer up through mid and upper levels with an inverted-v also noted in model soundings, and given forecast DCAPE values around 1500J/kg expect a very efficient wind environment to facilitate strong, damaging wind gusts. After discrete cells initiate, expect a shallow angle between the mean wind field and the approaching front will allow for clustering of storms and cold pool consolidation with a somewhat quick transition to a linear MCS or one or more bowing segments that will amplify outflow with potential for with gusts at or above 75mph. The greatest uncertainty in potential for severe weather appears to be further to the northeast generally in the bounded area both east of Hwy 83 and north of Hwy 91 where the lingering effects from stable outflow may dampen convection. The severe threat is expected to be progressive and exit the region to the east before Midnight with quiet conditions for the overnight.
A sharp short wave will then dig a trof into the upper midwest and push another cold front into the region late Monday into Monday night with another round of showers and thunderstorms that will linger into Tuesday morning. With the best instability off to our east expect potential for severe storms will be limited but any storms east of Hwy 83 will bear monitoring closely.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
By Tuesday night the front will be pushing off to the east with high pressure surface and aloft building over the region. This will keep quiet weather with above normal temperatures across central and western Nebraska through midweek. Thereafter ensemble guidance is in good agreement in continuing to build the ridge over the western US gradually developing a westward lean to the ridge axis over time. while this will keep us under northwest flow aloft the flow will become more active with short waves sliding down the face of the ridge. At the surface, high pressure moves to our east and sets up southerly return flow of moisture with 90th percentile precipitable water values just off to our west.
Northwest flow aloft with moist southerly flow below will set the stage for a return to more active weather by the end of the week and heading into the weekend. While any severe threat remains undefined, expect the potential for strong storms will be increasing through next weekend due to the favorable shear profiles and returning low level moisture. The gradual westward shift to the upper ridge will also allow for a slight cooling trend to temperatures closer to seasonal normals next weekend.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024
The main aviation concern today will be the chance for thunderstorms, late this afternoon and evening. It is anticipated that a line of thunderstorms will form and move across the Sandhills and southwest Nebraska into north central and central Nebraska. This could impact both forecast terminals, KVTN and KLBF, with the greatest chance of storms moving through the early evening hours for the forecast terminals.
MVFR or lower conditions will be possible as thunderstorms impact the terminals, with large hail, strong wind gust of 50kts or more and heavy rainfall.
For this afternoon winds will remain breezy out of the south around 10 to 15 kts with gust of 20 kts or more. Wind winds becoming light and variable overnight. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and for most of the forecast period with the exception of thunderstorm impacts.
LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
North Platte, NE,
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