Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeland, MI
June 13, 2024 8:38 PM EDT (00:38 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:53 AM Sunset 9:21 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM Moonset 12:41 AM |
LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 329 Pm Edt Thu Jun 13 2024
Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ400
No data
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 132320 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Higher than usual confidence in hot and humid conditions much of next week. Temperatures well into the 90s Monday and beyond with relatively high humidity will likely bring the highest heat indices we have seen so far this year.
AVIATION
Prefrontal trough supported convection finishes an exit into Ontario and Ohio shortly after 00Z. That leaves a stray shower or thunderstorm possible as the main cold front moves slowly through southern Lower Mi. The slow north to south pace of the frontal passage also makes borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling possible late tonight into early morning. These clouds develop overhead in the still moisture rich air mass along and south of the boundary. Terminals south of FNT have the best chance for a ceiling after midnight lasting until the front exits into Ohio around sunrise. Inbound high pressure and associated northerly boundary layer wind brings dry air into the region through the afternoon. Scattered shallow cumulus are all that is expected for the afternoon into Friday evening.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are no longer expected this evening. A stray shower is possible late tonight and then dry weather Friday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft this evening through tomorrow morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
DISCUSSION...
CAMs finally begin to converge on the severe weather potential for today. Line of storms looks to move southeast across the CWA between 4pm and 10pm tonight. The bulk of the storms will be to the southwest in Indiana and Illinois, but there is still potential for severe weather in southeast Michigan. Most of the CWA is under a Slight Risk for severe weather, with wind and hail being the primary threats. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. SBCAPE will hit 1500 J/kg or better due to overachieving daytime temperatures, with lapse rates pushing 7 C/km help updrafts to develop.Shear of 30- 40 knots has the potential to sustain anything that does develop, but stronger 50 knots shear does not push in until overnight behind the line of storms. Convergence along the front still does not look strong, and any storms that do develop will quickly outrun the available instability. While the ingredients are in place, there is still much uncertainty with how the system will evolve over Michigan. Potential exists for a storm to pop up over the entire CWA, but the best chances for severe weather are in the southern part of the CWA near Wayne, Washtenaw, Monroe, and Lenawee counties. Moisture availability is greater to the southwest, but peak PWATs of 2 inches are expected over the CWA Storm total QPFs sit at around 0.2 inches, but any localized showers could easily exceed that value.
Trough pushes east on Friday, allowing high pressure to take control and keep skies clear through Friday and Saturday. More seasonable highs reach 80 on both Friday and Saturday, with little chances for rain. Sunday night exhibits the next chances for rain due to an overnight warm frontal passage and an associated shortwave trough.
Significantly warmer weather remains in the forecast as an upper level ridge builds overhead on Sunday. 500mb heights have the potential to reach upwards of 590dam. This allows for warm, moist air to fill in and bring dew points in the 70s to the CWA Daytime highs Monday-Wednesday reach 90 degrees or better, with ensemble means disagreeing on the full extent of heating. Both shortwave troughs embedded within the ridge and upper level trough to the west have the potential to bring showers to the area, which would temper the heat down a few degrees should the timing line up. The NWS Heat Risk identifies a Major to Extreme Risk on Tuesday and Wednesday due to apparent temperatures pushing 100 degrees during the day, high dew points creating muggy conditions, and lack of overnight relief as temperatures stay above 70. Forecasted temperatures are currently set to hit 95 degrees four days in a row, which has not been achieved since July 1-4, 2002. If full insolation is achieved on any of these days, temperatures could push record highs, but right now that looks unlikely. Extended guidance holds the ridge through the rest of the week, sustaining above average temperatures.
MARINE...
A warm air mass continues to reside over the cooler waters, producing stable over-lake conditions. This will continue to minimize the stronger wind gusts mixing down to the surface, relative to the over-land nearshore zones. That said, isolated wind gusts around 25 knots will still be possible immediately along the land-lake interface with the southwest flow in place, especially into inner Saginaw Bay with the ideal fetch. These stronger wind gusts will diminish after sunset.
Otherwise, redeveloping showers and thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible this evening, focused mainly across central Lake Huron and locations south. Northern Lake Huron will still be susceptible to storms, some strong, through the late afternoon. Wind gusts to or in excess of 34 knots and small hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorm development. The passage of a cold front late tonight into tomorrow morning will veer wind direction from southwest to northwest as high pressure builds in behind the front. This will bring lighter winds to the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning, lasting into the end of the week.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 720 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Higher than usual confidence in hot and humid conditions much of next week. Temperatures well into the 90s Monday and beyond with relatively high humidity will likely bring the highest heat indices we have seen so far this year.
AVIATION
Prefrontal trough supported convection finishes an exit into Ontario and Ohio shortly after 00Z. That leaves a stray shower or thunderstorm possible as the main cold front moves slowly through southern Lower Mi. The slow north to south pace of the frontal passage also makes borderline VFR/MVFR ceiling possible late tonight into early morning. These clouds develop overhead in the still moisture rich air mass along and south of the boundary. Terminals south of FNT have the best chance for a ceiling after midnight lasting until the front exits into Ohio around sunrise. Inbound high pressure and associated northerly boundary layer wind brings dry air into the region through the afternoon. Scattered shallow cumulus are all that is expected for the afternoon into Friday evening.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are no longer expected this evening. A stray shower is possible late tonight and then dry weather Friday.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft this evening through tomorrow morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
DISCUSSION...
CAMs finally begin to converge on the severe weather potential for today. Line of storms looks to move southeast across the CWA between 4pm and 10pm tonight. The bulk of the storms will be to the southwest in Indiana and Illinois, but there is still potential for severe weather in southeast Michigan. Most of the CWA is under a Slight Risk for severe weather, with wind and hail being the primary threats. An isolated tornado also cannot be ruled out. SBCAPE will hit 1500 J/kg or better due to overachieving daytime temperatures, with lapse rates pushing 7 C/km help updrafts to develop.Shear of 30- 40 knots has the potential to sustain anything that does develop, but stronger 50 knots shear does not push in until overnight behind the line of storms. Convergence along the front still does not look strong, and any storms that do develop will quickly outrun the available instability. While the ingredients are in place, there is still much uncertainty with how the system will evolve over Michigan. Potential exists for a storm to pop up over the entire CWA, but the best chances for severe weather are in the southern part of the CWA near Wayne, Washtenaw, Monroe, and Lenawee counties. Moisture availability is greater to the southwest, but peak PWATs of 2 inches are expected over the CWA Storm total QPFs sit at around 0.2 inches, but any localized showers could easily exceed that value.
Trough pushes east on Friday, allowing high pressure to take control and keep skies clear through Friday and Saturday. More seasonable highs reach 80 on both Friday and Saturday, with little chances for rain. Sunday night exhibits the next chances for rain due to an overnight warm frontal passage and an associated shortwave trough.
Significantly warmer weather remains in the forecast as an upper level ridge builds overhead on Sunday. 500mb heights have the potential to reach upwards of 590dam. This allows for warm, moist air to fill in and bring dew points in the 70s to the CWA Daytime highs Monday-Wednesday reach 90 degrees or better, with ensemble means disagreeing on the full extent of heating. Both shortwave troughs embedded within the ridge and upper level trough to the west have the potential to bring showers to the area, which would temper the heat down a few degrees should the timing line up. The NWS Heat Risk identifies a Major to Extreme Risk on Tuesday and Wednesday due to apparent temperatures pushing 100 degrees during the day, high dew points creating muggy conditions, and lack of overnight relief as temperatures stay above 70. Forecasted temperatures are currently set to hit 95 degrees four days in a row, which has not been achieved since July 1-4, 2002. If full insolation is achieved on any of these days, temperatures could push record highs, but right now that looks unlikely. Extended guidance holds the ridge through the rest of the week, sustaining above average temperatures.
MARINE...
A warm air mass continues to reside over the cooler waters, producing stable over-lake conditions. This will continue to minimize the stronger wind gusts mixing down to the surface, relative to the over-land nearshore zones. That said, isolated wind gusts around 25 knots will still be possible immediately along the land-lake interface with the southwest flow in place, especially into inner Saginaw Bay with the ideal fetch. These stronger wind gusts will diminish after sunset.
Otherwise, redeveloping showers and thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible this evening, focused mainly across central Lake Huron and locations south. Northern Lake Huron will still be susceptible to storms, some strong, through the late afternoon. Wind gusts to or in excess of 34 knots and small hail will be the main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorm development. The passage of a cold front late tonight into tomorrow morning will veer wind direction from southwest to northwest as high pressure builds in behind the front. This will bring lighter winds to the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning, lasting into the end of the week.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 27 mi | 39 min | W 16G | 79°F | 29.72 | |||
| 45163 | 40 mi | 39 min | WSW 5.8G | 73°F | 2 ft | 29.76 | ||
| GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 43 mi | 59 min | SW 12G | 78°F | 29.74 |
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Wind History graph: MBS
(wind in knots)
Detroit, MI,
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