Sunrise 5:52 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM   Moonset 3:39 PM

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FXUS63 KEAX 022055 AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 355 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple rounds of thunderstorms are expected between now and Tuesday night. A few stronger storms could produce wind gusts to 60 mph, large hail, or local flooding.

- Drier, less humid conditions expected Wednesday into the weekend.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 354 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Looking at satellite imagery this afternoon, a zonal flow is currently dominating much of the Nation, with several small shortwave perturbations noted due to the MCVs generated by storms overnight seen across the Plains States. Activity from last nights decaying storms in eastern Kansas is still slowing shifting northeast through Missouri into Iowa, but has only resulted in isolated storms across far west, and northwest to north central Missouri. This limited activity will move northeast quickly through he rest of the afternoon, but is not expected to do much other than bring a quick bout of heavy rain. Otherwise, for today, the storms that keep developing to our west across Central Kansas and Nebraska are feeding on broad area south to north moisture advection that is occurring ahead of a trough that is moving through the intermountain west this afternoon. This afternoons activity is not expected to reach KC, and should keep falling apart as it moves east owing to the storms racing away from the moisture advection.

Tonight into Monday...as the intermountain shortwave begins to exit into the Plains tonight the nocturnal jet will ramp up notably. With that will come still more moisture advection; and with precipitable water values over 1.5 inches poised across Oklahoma we expect this to feed another complex of storms across Nebraska and Kansas through Monday morning. Confidence in model solutions is not very high owing to the very nebulous nature of MCVs in a zonal flow with lots of available moisture. That said, model solutions indicate that storms will develop across the High Plains and move east overnight but will start falling apart as they move into eastern Nebraska and Kansas.
However, towards Monday morning solutions indicate that the cold pool becomes dominate and the nocturnal jet begins to break up.
Storms that do persist into Missouri Monday morning may have enough shear to warrant a threat of strong damaging winds, along with local flooding from the heavy rain. For the rest of Monday afternoon and Monday night expectations are that the morning activity will slowly decay as it moves through with a modest potential for more storms.

Tuesday will see our next good chance for storms return as a shortwave, currently still over the Pacific, zips east quickly into the Northern Plains bringing a frontal passage Tuesday afternoon and evening. Available moisture, as the front moves through, indicates that heavy rain will be a threat again, though with the shear around a frontal boundary hail and wind may also be an issue. Otherwise, with the passage of the cold front expect the humidity to dip for the later half of the work week with temperatures climbing into the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR CIGs and widely scattered showers start this TAF cycle across the Kansas-Missouri state line as they are what is left of a convective complex that moved into east Kansas early this morning. Current showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in central Kansas are not currently expected to make it as far east as our KC terminals, but they will need to be watched carefully. Better chance for storms looks to arrive early Monday morning from another complex of storms moving across Nebraska and Kansas. Timing, and how far the complex pushes into Missouri, are all still very uncertain at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None.
KS...None.

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Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO,