Sunrise 5:08 AM   Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 2:40 AM   Moonset 4:11 PM

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FXUS61 KBTV 021937 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 337 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry weather will continue through Tuesday, with highs generally reaching the 80s. Humidity will be gradually increasing this week and some rain showers look to develop on Wednesday.
Widespread rainfall will move through on Thursday and begin a cooling trend for later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Large scale ridging will be in place during this period and it will keep the weather relatively dry and sunny.
High clouds are making their way into the region this afternoon but they are having a difficult time staying together. Therefore, mostly sunny skies should continue this afternoon, even over much of northern New York. Eventually these clouds will win out and the first part of the night will be partly to mostly cloudy. Clouds will erode later in the night as a high builds down slightly from the northeast. Clearing skies and calm winds will allow for efficient radiational cooling to develop in the second part of the night, and temperatures will generally fall into the 50s. However, it will not be as cold as the previous nights. Temperatures will rise into the 80s across the region tomorrow and the humidity will begin to increase, with dew points rising into the 50s to around 60. There is the chance of an isolated shower (~10%) across central and eastern Vermont, but with a decent amount amount of dry air in the lower atmosphere, most rain will likely not even reach the ground. Due to the increased humidity and a warmer airmass, temperatures will stay a few degrees warmer than tonight, only falling into the 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Mid/upper level ridging will build into the region from the west on Tuesday with surface high pressure hanging around coastal New England. While this will generally keep conditions dry and warm, there will be increasing moisture from the west/northwest, and a weak shortwave energy riding the ridge, which could produce a few isolated showers and gradually increase clouds.
Instability is not thoroughly impressive, though there could be enough destabilization from daytime heating to produce a rumble of thunder, especially in northern New York, which will be closest to the interaction of moisture and shortwave.

Temperatures at the 925mb level are modeled at around +20 C Tuesday afternoon. Surface temps are not expected to be greatly impacted by any isolated showers or clouds during the day, soaring 10-15 degrees above early June averages. Highs are expected to rise into the 80s outside the higher elevations and directly over Lake Champlain, likely the hottest day of the week. Warmest conditions will be on the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley as well as New York's St.
Lawrence Valley. We are anticipating a minor risk of heat-related impacts, which would mean mainly individuals extremely sensitive to heat would be affected, particularly when outdoors or without adequate cooling/hydration.

While moisture continues to increase overnight, the ridge begins to crest over the forecast area, keeping us mostly dry. However, there is the potential for another shortwave to sweep south through the region, bringing a few additional showers as surface high pressure heads off into the Atlantic Ocean. This will also allow winds to pick up slightly out of the south, producing low temperatures in the 50s to mid 60s, remaining roughly 10 degrees above average. Overall rain amounts from Tuesday - Tuesday night will not amount to much, perhaps a few hundredths of an inch. Dry air at the surface may not allow much precipitation to reach the ground.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 337 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be another pop-up scattered shower day due to continued modest instability and high temperatures in the 80s, more widespread showers than Tuesday with higher confidence of precipitatoin. Showers/storms may produce several hundredths of an inch across the forecast area. Mid/upper level low pressure will send a moist frontal boundary through the forecast area Thursday, and we continue to see a high likelihood of widespread wetting rainfall for this second half of the week.
Temperatures will also be falling towards climatological normals late week through the weekend, mainly highs in the 70s. Following the frontal boundary Thursday, cyclonic circulation will keep us in a wet, showery pattern into early next week. At the moment, the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting at least a 5% chance of flash flooding Wednesday into Thursday due to the rainfall, and rivers are expected to rise slightly as well. However, after a period of mostly dry weather, we are not anticipating high impacts with this system, but will continue to monitor it as it approaches.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday...All terminals are VFR and they should remain that way through the entire TAF period. Fog is not expected overnight, even at SLK. Winds will be light and variable through tonight, before turning northerly during the day tomorrow, though they will stay relatively light. LLWS is not a concern.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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